Ireland Regional Discussions 17th January 2013 onwards

[Downburst]

Well the little low to the sw is more defined at 90 hr this run is consistent with 12z but marginally better for Ireland. 24hrs ago we were not looking as good.

[snowice]

Yesterday same chap said nothing but rain into weekend. Don't think he does anything but read the exact computer script. Dreadful presenter for this day and age. Charisma bypass.

we will have to wait till Monday

[ronan]

Monday looking really good for all of Ireland! This is getting really good!

[Downburst]

we will have to wait till Monday

Remember to also look at precipitation chart and the dew point, along with snow risk and 2m temp for same time. The chart you show doesn't tell the whole story. But yes looks good for sure.

[skywatcher]

there is a concern for lowlying coastal areas but so much will be down to local conditions.

[Downburst]

BBC news ramping central right now. This better deliver now. GFS now showing breakdown Wednesday that may not happen. To be honest, to miss snow over next 5 days would be next to impossible

[snowydog]

Pretty wet out here - lots of puddles! Was quite heavy rain earlier - hard to believe we are meant to get heavy snow tomorrow ..

I'm in Castlereagh Hills by the way!

[sundog]

Well i dont know what to expect tomorrow for my location as regards getting snow, the best i will probably get is sleet,looks good for ulster though so good luck to all up there. Maybe the rest of us will have to wait till Monday and atm Monday is looking very tasty.

[Cavehill Snow]

Rain now starting to turn to sleet and snow over the Isle of Man. Its coming

Where did you hear that? Promising if it is true. Here it has been 4 C from late afternoon and got no colder since.

Difficult to know what to expect on Friday & weekend

On a pessimistic note there is an occluded front and a warm front ahead of the main system. Our temperatures are quire high still and need to drop fairly rapidly from now on if this is to play forecast; I think we need the winds to switch more southeast to east ahead of the main fronts as this can lower the temperatures (England cold all week under east winds with us being mild despite being only 60-80 miles away due west). Met Eireann & UKMet report that rain in NI will turn to snow in the afternoon especially over high ground.Met Eireann also states that Dublin, east Leinster coast & Wicklow mountains may see wet snow .

On a positive note, whilst Met Eireann & UKmet haven't updated their warnings from this afternoon, BBC News website quotes NI as having 10-15 cm of snow on Friday on Friday and 20 cm by Sat morning. Also looking at radar, rain only moving northeast 30-40 miles over 3 hours - so should allow better chance of colder temperatures before the precipitation arrives.

[Altohumorous]

Anything between -6 and -7 and coastal areas needn't worry about a lack of snow

Though at times undoubtedly getting marginal on wind ward coasts.

The boundary between cold and (relatively) mild is a very thin line. Steep thermal gradient.

Yes but with strong onshore wind and SSTs of 9.6 DC, I feel that -10 would be needed. Better chance when wind drops off, if upper temps remain similar.

One thing that will help drag those surface temps down a little bit more will be the snow forecast to settle in Wales, given that the air coming here will be crossing there. On the down side the milder air makes progress north across Ireland, making it very marginal even for the east and the northeast midlands

Edited January 17, 2013 by Altohumorous

[jello]

Where did you hear that? Promising if it is true. Here it has been 4 C from late afternoon and got no colder since.

Difficult to know what to expect on Friday & weekend

On a pessimistic note there is an occluded front and a warm front ahead of the main system. Our temperatures are quire high still and need to drop fairly rapidly from now on if this is to play forecast; I think we need the winds to switch more southeast to east ahead of the main fronts as this can lower the temperatures (England cold all week under east winds with us being mild despite being only 60-80 miles away due west). Met Eireann & UKMet report that rain in NI will turn to snow in the afternoon especially over high ground.Met Eireann also states that Dublin, east Leinster coast & Wicklow mountains may see wet snow .

On a positive note, whilst Met Eireann & UKmet haven't updated their warnings from this afternoon, BBC News website quotes NI as having 10-15 cm of snow on Friday on Friday and 20 cm by Sat morning. Also looking at radar, rain only moving northeast 30-40 miles over 3 hours - so should allow better chance of colder temperatures before the precipitation arrives.

Hi, its showing on Rain Today Snow Radar

[Cavehill Snow]

Just seen two cop out forecasts on BBCNI & RTE tonight - same words & graphics as teatime.

Rain or wet snow on low ground with surface temps at 2-3C.

Things gone very quiet with no new info regarding warnings or snow prediction charts since this afternoon.

[Cavehill Snow]

Hi, its showing on Rain Today Snow Radar

Thanks for reply

I had a look at RainToday site, it only seems to show precipitation intensity, I can't find anything to show precip type.

[Neiller22]

Bbc newsline weather was once again rank!! Wish I had watched national weather as it seems loads better according to mountain shadow as my 4 year old daughter could have put more detail in bara bests forecast! Utter useless by local news! Beginning to think this all may be an overreaction going by his inept forecast!

[ronan]

Update from NIW

Northern Ireland Weather

UPDATE: Rain is expected to turn to Sleet and Snow over Co Antrim & Co Down shortly after midnight.

Our warnings will be amended soon as there has been some changes and warnings may be upgraded

[BIG LAD]

according to the radar the rain band has moved into south donegal and south west fermanagh. slow moving but we need those temps to start falling back. im getting worried as my temps still reading 6.3c.

[Cavehill Snow]

Just seen this chart on Mod Discussion site from GPS 18hrs valid for 6pm - midnight for Friday.

Snow north of a line from wicklow to just ne of Galway city - hopefully further improvements for those looking like having to wait to Monday for their snow!

[bobbarley]

Its a pity we don't have a Ian Ferguson locally who provide in-depth analysis and is prepared to the discuss medium range forecasts. Our local forecasters will never be drawn on anything past 2-3 days ahead and always appear to be reading from a script. That includes BBC and RTE!!

[The Eagle]

NAE giving pretty much 24 hrs of snowfall from around 9 am tomorrow for Wicklow all the way to Antrim. Temps not falling yet. 6c here northeast of Dublin. But good news DP and temp M2 buoy in the Irish sea now falling. DP down to 2.4c

[Su Campu]

I was yesterday more optimistic about tomorrow's prospects, but in reality it's not looking good unless you're in the far NE of Ulster or on a hill. We're just on the wrong side of the boundary.

Strong southerly airflow today and tonight is introducing a very mild boundary layer. The uppers tomorrow will just not be cold enough to overcome this boundary layer.

Theta-e shows a warm sector developing over most of the island tomorrow evening. We'd need around 10 °C or less for snow to low levels. We're nowhere near it.

no real pull of cold air in from GB.

Dewpoints just too high

GFS sounding for near Dublin summarises it all. Thicknesses 531 dm and 1299 m. A saturated boundary layer eliminating evaporative cooling. Southwesterly winds in the lowest layers, not southeasterly or easterly. Zero isotherm at 400 m, wet-bulb zero around 320 m.

Yes, snow on hills, and at lower levels in NE and eastern Ulster, but I'm afraid for the Republic, a bit more of a mix at low levels.

Dublin TAF was amended at 2121Z. Rain, with only PROB40 of sleet tomorrow afternoon.

TAF AMD EIDW 172121Z 1721/1818 13022G33KT 8000 -DZ SCT004 BKN010 TEMPO 1722/1817 4000 RA BKN004 PROB40 TEMPO 1805/1817 RASN BECMG 1816/1818 9999 BKN020=

Belfast Aldergrove sleet with just a PROB40 of snow.

TAF EGAA 171704Z 1718/1818 14015KT 8000 BKN007 TEMPO 1718/1803 14018G28KT 3000 -RADZ BR PROB30 TEMPO 1718/1724 9999 BECMG 1803/1806 14020G30KT TEMPO 1806/1818 3000 RASN BKN004 PROB40 TEMPO 1812/1818 1000 SN BKN001=

Edited January 17, 2013 by Su Campu

[The Eagle]

Met Eireann have just tweeted

Rain overnight/low cloud&mist,before dawn will continue,turning to sleet or snow in N& also on E. Windy night also.Min temps 0 to +3C

[Downburst]

Its a pity we don't have a Ian Ferguson locally who provide in-depth analysis and is prepared to the discuss medium range forecasts. Our local forecasters will never be drawn on anything past 2-3 days ahead and always appear to be reading from a script. That includes BBC and RTE!!

I know a man in Fermanagh with a Massey Ferguson?

[The Eagle]

I was yesterday more optimistic about tomorrow's prospects, but in reality it's not looking good unless you're in the far NE of Ulster or on a hill. We're just on the wrong side of the boundary.

Strong southerly airflow today and tonight is introducing a very mean boundary layer. The uppers tomorrow will just not be cold enough to overcome this boundary layer.

Theta-e shows a warm sector developing over most of the island tomorrow evening. We'd need around 10 °C or less for snow to low levels. We're nowhere near it.

no real pull of cold air in from GB.

Dewpoints just too high

GFS sounding for near Dublin summarises it all. Thicknesses 531 dm and 1299 m. A saturated boundary layer eliminating evaporative cooling. Southwesterly winds in the lowest layers, not southeasterly or easterly. Zero isotherm at 400 m, wet-bulb zero around 320 m.

Yes, snow on hills, and at lower levels in NE and eastern Ulster, but I'm afraid for the Republic, a bit more of a mix at low levels.

Dublin TAF was amended at 2121Z. Rain, with only PROB40 of sleet tomorrow afternoon.

TAF AMD EIDW 172121Z 1721/1818 13022G33KT 8000 -DZ SCT004 BKN010 TEMPO 1722/1817 4000 RA BKN004 PROB40 TEMPO 1805/1817 RASN BECMG 1816/1818 9999 BKN020=

Belfast Aldergrove sleet with just a PROB40 of snow.

TAF EGAA 171704Z 1718/1818 14015KT 8000 BKN007 TEMPO 1718/1803 14018G28KT 3000 -RADZ BR PROB30 TEMPO 1718/1724 9999 BECMG 1803/1806 14020G30KT TEMPO 1806/1818 3000 RASN BKN004 PROB40 TEMPO 1812/1818 1000 SN BKN001=

T'is going to happen. NAE/ECM has it nailed. Hope so any way.

[ronan]

I was yesterday more optimistic about tomorrow's prospects, but in reality it's not looking good unless you're in the far NE of Ulster or on a hill. We're just on the wrong side of the boundary.

Strong southerly airflow today and tonight is introducing a very mean boundary layer. The uppers tomorrow will just not be cold enough to overcome this boundary layer.

Theta-e shows a warm sector developing over most of the island tomorrow evening. We'd need around 10 °C or less for snow to low levels. We're nowhere near it.

no real pull of cold air in from GB.

Dewpoints just too high

GFS sounding for near Dublin summarises it all. Thicknesses 531 dm and 1299 m. A saturated boundary layer eliminating evaporative cooling. Southwesterly winds in the lowest layers, not southeasterly or easterly. Zero isotherm at 400 m, wet-bulb zero around 320 m.

Yes, snow on hills, and at lower levels in NE and eastern Ulster, but I'm afraid for the Republic, a bit more of a mix at low levels.

Dublin TAF was amended at 2121Z. Rain, with only PROB40 of sleet tomorrow afternoon.

TAF AMD EIDW 172121Z 1721/1818 13022G33KT 8000 -DZ SCT004 BKN010 TEMPO 1722/1817 4000 RA BKN004 PROB40 TEMPO 1805/1817 RASN BECMG 1816/1818 9999 BKN020=

Belfast Aldergrove sleet with just a PROB40 of snow.

TAF EGAA 171704Z 1718/1818 14015KT 8000 BKN007 TEMPO 1718/1803 14018G28KT 3000 -RADZ BR PROB30 TEMPO 1718/1724 9999 BECMG 1803/1806 14020G30KT TEMPO 1806/1818 3000 RASN BKN004 PROB40 TEMPO 1812/1818 1000 SN BKN001=

So all the models, all the forecasters and all the warnings are just complete crap?

[jello]

Thanks for reply

I had a look at RainToday site, it only seems to show precipitation intensity, I can't find anything to show precip type.

Hi, its a premium feature, its £2.99 per month

here is a screen shot for you. Red is snow, grey is sleet,

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/17034-sleetsnow/