North West England Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013, 12z onwards

[snowdrifter]

What directtion is the band going?

[Ian Brown]

is this good or bad "spanner in the works"

I just thing we just stick with the trend of the PPN being to the South of the region, also notice that the METO have changed their forecast of further snow for Monday to it now being a dry day.

[k19]

Interestingly the 12z GFS offered significant upgrades for our area, but I can't see the metoffice getting it wrong at this short range. Confusing synoptics indeed.

[Lesley Johnson]

Here is the accumulated precipitaion from NMM. Strong signal for Manchester and north Cheshire to suffer from a rain shaddow effect

sorry but does this mean rain for me then?

[Chris.R]

Moderate snow grains and graupel here.

[Cheshire Freeze]

sorry but does this mean rain for me then?

Based on the NMM,1-2cm max

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

lol im expecting a dusting if that,pleased for anyone who gets a ghood plastering though

[Ian Brown]

Nope, the progression shows it from the frontal band. Naturally with a SE wind, the eastern side of the Pennines will do better, with a lot of NW England sheltered. Not too worried for here at the minute as SE winds seem to cut in here OK, just far enough south but it's a bit dicey.

Not entirely sure about that CC, some of the rare snow events for the North coast of Wales – Prestatyn etc.. have occurred when there has been a South Easterly.

[Cheese Rice]

I suspect uppers are been mixed out by these features currently over England. Perhaps rain for costal areas of NW England with it been marginal 10 miles inland. Don't want to jump the gun but previous NAE did show this happening. Anyone else got any thoughts on this?

Edited January 17, 2013 by Cheese Rice

[k19]

sorry but does this mean rain for me then?

No it will still be snow but because of the position of manchester and cheshire in the flow there won't be much of it compared to neighbouring areas. The models have been wrong about these things before though.

[Backtrack]

Well already had a dusting off the light snow which has been falling for a while. Shame the band died a death over us though, could of given a nice few cm's that! Temps still going down although the DP is now the wrong side of marginal at 0.3C.

[SparkleS]

Just posted this in the old thread

Was about to post 10 mins ago started to rain a little, but just been out and its snowing, winds picking up and we have a light dusting on pavements and top of cars.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not entirely sure about that CC, some of the rare snow events for the North coast of Wales – Prestatyn etc.. have occurred when there has been a South Easterly.

If they're under the main thrust of the precipitation then yes. However around the peripheries where precipitation is weaker and more prone to being affected by the orographic vagaries, it is different.

[Lesley Johnson]

sorry but does this mean rain for me then?

thank you

[paul12345]

i need to give this snow hoping thing up ..it really is too stressful.I feel like a madman for hoping .

Same here, ridiculous really.

[k19]

I suspect uppers are been mixed out by these features currently over England. Perhaps rain for costal areas of NW England with it been marginal 10 miles inland. Don't want to jump the gun but previous NAE did show this happening. Anyone else got any thoughts on this?

Uppers look fine from about midnight on at the moment. Can't really see the uppers getting mixed out with the front being moved further west as it has been. We are on the snow side of things, but too far on it, which is stopping ppn from reaching us. Only if the front moves further east than expected could this become an issue.

[clangers23]

Well I'm relocating to the south later this year and lack of snow for the NW will not one of the things I miss!

[wysiwyg]

Not entirely sure about that CC, some of the rare snow events for the North coast of Wales – Prestatyn etc.. have occurred when there has been a South Easterly.

the SEly component in this set up is caused by cold air undercutting the warm air trying to feed in off the atlantic. A SEly wind will only favour East of the Pennines if it originates from a cold continental Europe and brings convective snow from the N Sea.

the precipitation in friday's set-up will come from the moist air out west being forced up and over the cold air currently over the UK. Where this occurs cold air will rush NWwards to fill the gap left by the less dense warm air - hence the SEly wind - the bigger the temperature difference between the two air masses, the stronger the wind.

Edited January 17, 2013 by wysiwyg

[pip22]

I bet Diane Oxburry would be pleased to see the whole north west dodge the snow.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I bet Diane Oxburry would be pleased to see the whole north west dodge the snow.

Rumour has it she's been sat on the Fylde coast, puffing and panting in a westwards direction hoping to blow that low further west

[SnowObsessor90]

There seems to be a growing feeling of pessimism again in here, so would wise not to expect much if anything at all then?

[burylad12]

When will the met office do another upgrade tonight?

[Iceaxecrampon]

Near Blackburn today - light flurries starting at 300asl - skies look heavy toward Preston and the Fylde in the fading light - windspeed picked up.

[Darren Bown]

Sticking a bit here even though its so light!

[UV-RAY]

Temp 1.6c light snow now falling but not amounting to anything.