London & South East Regional Discussion 17th January 2013, 12z onwards

[Southender]

Well I dont know about the rest of you SE Essex and E Kent contingent. But I am having kittens at the moment!

What with the 6z GFS alleged Eastward bias and the Amber warnings further SW, I am growing more and more concerned that this is turning into a very marginal situation for our corner.

We simply NEED a shift Eastwards of this Ppn and quick. Another correction west and I will be going to Snowcon 2 from Snowcon 3 at present. Snowcon 1 does not bear thinking about.

Please for the love of god, for all those in the Eastern parts of our region. Let there be an EASTWARDS correction on the 12z output.

[john mac]

I saw the bbc forecast, i would say theres a good chance of a thamas screamer i mean streamer lol on that strong easterly breeze

[tonbridgemole]

https://twitter.com/...5325825/photo/1

updated snow depth map from meto

Oh Dear!!....Just will have to wait and see.....im still up beat

[craigore]

ok so looking forward to the 12z and my wet patch...hopefully not resulting from crying lol

I can tell all us east kenters are on a real downer after seeing that forcast, chin up,weve gotta get something out of this,might just be enough to make a snowball mind!!

[Snowangel-MK]

Amber Warning of Snow for London & South East England :

Hampshire, Bracknell Forest, Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire, Reading, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham, Slough, Greater London, East Sussex, Kent, Southampton, Portsmouth, Brighton and Hove & Milton Keynes.

Valid from: 0300 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2100 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

A band of snow, heavy in places, will spread northeastwards across Wales and the southwestern half of England, during Friday morning, lasting through the afternoon and evening across much of Wales, the Midlands, southern and parts of southeast England. Winds will strengthen, leading to drifting of lying snow.

Many parts of the Red Warning area are likely to have 20-30 cm of snow with strong southeasterly winds causing blizzards, severe drifting of lying snow and thus severe disruption. The public should avoid all non-essential journeys.

Elsewhere, accumulations of more than 5-10 cm of snow will occur quite widely, with 15 cm in some western parts of the Amber area, falling within 3-6 hours. The public should be prepared for disruption, including altering travel plans.

Please watch for updates to these warnings.

Issued at: 1230 on Thu 17 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice...Time=1358337660

[john mac]

Well I dont know about the rest of you SE Essex and E Kent contingent. But I am having kittens at the moment!

What with the 6z GFS alleged Eastward bias and the Amber warnings further SW, I am growing more and more concerned that this is turning into a very marginal situation for our corner.

We simply NEED a shift Eastwards of this Ppn and quick. Another correction west and I will be going to Snowcon 2 from Snowcon 3 at present. Snowcon 1 does not bear thinking about.

Please for the love of god, for all those in the Eastern parts of our region. Let there be an EASTWARDS correction on the 12z output.

I hope so mate, even more for everyone in this thread then

[BLUNT]

Just looked Weather on line they are going for mostly dry tomorrow perhaps some snow flurries, all the action to the West

[weathergeek]

Latest BBC 5day = Smiley face!x

[VillagePlank]

The timings and locations of snowfall still have time to vary; even if by fifty miles, and mother nature, of course, will always have her say, too!

T = 1.9c

T_d = 0.2c

RH = 53%

Edited January 17, 2013 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[danm]

Latest BBC 5day = Smiley face!x

Can't get much better than that outlook for London.

[Southender]

I hope so mate, even more for everyone in this thread then

Well indeed.

An Eastwards correction suits every single person in this thread.

Lets ALL #Prayforaneastwardshift

[hernebaylooby]

ok im now on a major downer i think im gonna miss out on the action again

[warrenb]

amazing what completely still conditions and a full days Sun can do to the temperature, it would probably be lower if there were a little breeze, but the Sun can heat the land, and as the land is very wet at the moment, the energy is being released as heat. Simple physics.

So basically it wouldn't be so mild if the land was dry and there was a little breeze.

[Coast]

Latest BBC 5day = Smiley face!x

Have the BBC been looking in this forum at last??!!!!

[fulham snow]

At this rate any thing that does come out the sky will be rain 4.1 c in Epsom

[chionomaniac]

I think the double update in Meto warnings may have something to do with the latest high res model changes and subsequent fax correction as posted in model thread. No surprise to see an underestimation in the slide.

[Coast]

ok im now on a major downer i think im gonna miss out on the action again

Well don't - you are going to get all the action you can handle in the next three days!

[Met4Cast]

This is going to be a stupid question, but I need to ask because it's bugging me.

Why does higher ground get more snow? I understand in marginal setups higher ground is best because it's colder, but when temperatures are perfect for low lying areas too, why does the snow still accumulate more over higher ground?

[Matteus7]

would anyone care to assess Medways chances, it has amber warning included for "Kent" however Medway usually appears as a seperate area on these warnings, i assume we're better off then "east kent" but we're quite far east in the grand scheme of things (compared to the majority of those amber warning areas for example)

i know its a bit silly to get hung up on these details 24-30 hours ahead of the game, just interested how people view Medway geographically , surely its not east kent is it??! lol

[Sussex Jules]

East Kenters did you see that map? How bad? Looked to me to be further into Kent than met office website. Sorry should add it was BBC 24

Edited January 17, 2013 by Jules71

[snowbob]

Il be happy if that forecast is the same at 10. 30 tonight

Also they showed light snow getting into London at 6 am that seems a change there

Maybe a slight correction east

Not saying it is

Just wondering

[hernebaylooby]

Well don't - you are going to get all the action you can handle in the next three days!

is that a promis

Edited January 17, 2013 by hernebaylooby

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

This is going to be a stupid question, but I need to ask because it's bugging me.

Why does higher ground get more snow? I understand in marginal setups higher ground is best because it's colder, but when temperatures are perfect for low lying areas too, why does the snow still accumulate more over higher ground?

I believe it is because the air get's forced upwards over hills and mountains thus creating more moisture and heavier precip

Edited January 17, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Met4Cast]

South-East Forecast - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/me2

London Forecast - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/sw12

(Weirdly the same forecaster, thats a pretty cool trick)

Edited January 17, 2013 by Daniel Smith

[Paul Sherman]

Shrimper

At least we have the added bonus of the Easterly if this goes Pete Tong