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South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 22z ----->

A.J

By A.J
in Regional

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djpaulbailey Rookie

djpaulbailey

Posted
  • Location: Verwood, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Wind,Lightning
  • Location: Verwood, Dorset
Posted

The 80 year old that feeds the birds every day and takes note of their actions will be as informed if not better than the current computer. People seem to forget that once upon a time there was no computer, no meteorologists, no access to this type of info full stop yet today everybody get's so wrapped up in what is at best one man's guess.

Have you been eating Tesco burgers again?.......

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rowieboyz Newbie

rowieboyz

Posted
  • Location: Princetown Dartmoor
  • Location: Princetown Dartmoor
Posted

Hi Rowie - didn't realise you were up there too! Shame - but I reckon with your elevation you'll get something soon.

Fingers crossed we do, seen some epic snowfalls since living here, but if I'm honest I'd swap places with you, I love padstow!

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SupaSnowy Apprentice

SupaSnowy

Posted
  • Location: Fareham Hampshire
  • Location: Fareham Hampshire
Posted

For once I won't need to look at a lamp post, as it should get here during the day. Been a while since I seen it snow most of the day, rather then in the evening and night.

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Chul Apprentice

Chul

Posted
  • Location: Marchwood, Southampton
  • Location: Marchwood, Southampton
Posted

Southampton?. . . Sorry had few jars, not up to reading pages of chat. . . Give it to me in one word. . Snow? Yes or no!!!!!

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djpaulbailey Rookie

djpaulbailey

Posted
  • Location: Verwood, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Wind,Lightning
  • Location: Verwood, Dorset
Posted (edited)

It's like a religious sect on here, all none believers should be stoned etc

Totally not the case, we would just like to know how you come to your assumptions....some kind of data, model charts, friends, higher forces??

Edited by djpaulbailey
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SupaSnowy Apprentice

SupaSnowy

Posted
  • Location: Fareham Hampshire
  • Location: Fareham Hampshire
Posted

Southampton?. . . Sorry had few jars, not up to reading pages of chat. . . Give it to me in one word. . Snow? Yes or no!!!!!

Pretty certain we will get something.

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Beast of Plympton Enthusiast

Beast of Plympton

Posted
  • Location: Plympton St Maurice, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold and Storms
  • Location: Plympton St Maurice, Devon
Posted

Not looked to be fair, just popping me head out the window now and again...........much more reliable, can have all the modern tech in the world but nothing beats a lamppost! Lol

Brilliant response, just brilliant Jason!!

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noggin Aficionado

noggin

Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
Posted

Or you can sort it out yourself, it's called the ignore button :) that's what I've done where those two are concerned, that way peace and harmony is restored to this thread.

Oh, yes! I'd completely forgotten about the ignore button.......I've not had to use it in over 7 years.

Thank you.

I'd do you a "thumbs up smiley", but it looks like smileys have been disabled at the moment.

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Snowy Liverpool Newbie

Snowy Liverpool

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool/Leeds
  • Location: Liverpool/Leeds
Posted

We employ combination of UKMO-GM, NAE, UK4 & UKV to assess snow amount likelihoods, alongside MOGREPS & EC ENS snow prob charts to cross-reference areal probability. I've never seen GFS cited in any such analyses on regional/sub-regional snow amounts. I've never heard anything positive in views re it's snow prog algorithm, but in any event, the topographic simulation & emulation of orographic enhancement etc from UK4 & UKV is vastly superior anyway.

Hi Ian, so if I'm reading this correct should the GFS and NAE precipitation forecasts be treated with a lot of skepticism? Where is the eastern extent of the front according to your models?

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djpaulbailey Rookie

djpaulbailey

Posted
  • Location: Verwood, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Wind,Lightning
  • Location: Verwood, Dorset
Posted

Sorry to rain on everyone's parade, so to speak, but the METO are now starting to forecast a regional snow to rain event for Ferndown and Bournemouth. Guess we are all doomed to the same old, same old in our area. I'm fed up with the rain now ... come on you coasties, prey for a miracle sorry.gif

Drive to Verwood, it'll be snow here for sure!

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)

Definition of a Blizzard,

"The simultaneous occurrence of moderate or heavy snowfall with winds of at least force 7, causing drifting snow and reduction of visibility to 200 m or less". (Moderate snow is said to occur when the visibility is 'substantially' impaired, and the snow cover increases in depth at a rate up to about 4 cm per hour. Heavy snow should reduce the visibility to a 'low value' (in the low hundreds of metres), and the snow cover increases at a rate exceeding 4 cm per hour. )

Friday mornings forecast

blizzard_zpsab3783e9.png

A Blizzard it is!!!! Never actually experienced and "official" Blizzard.

Edited by chris55
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Beast of Plympton Enthusiast

Beast of Plympton

Posted
  • Location: Plympton St Maurice, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold and Storms
  • Location: Plympton St Maurice, Devon
Posted

Just an update, 0.1c and snowing very lightly. Netweather have us down for 20cm of snow over tomorrow and friday whilst met office have us down for very little... this is pretty funny!!

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BM4PM Rookie

BM4PM

Posted
  • Location: Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Day after tomorrow.
  • Location: Plymouth
Posted

Hello everyone I'm new to netweather forums .I now you all proberly get this all the time but does anyone think that Plymouth could get something . All im seeing is icy rain and wind chill of minus 5 at the moment :/ not good .

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted (edited)

Hello everyone I'm new to netweather forums .I now you all proberly get this all the time but does anyone think that Plymouth could get something . All im seeing is icy rain and wind chill of minus 5 at the moment :/ not good .

Unless we continue on a westerly shift then unlikely it would seem.

Its marginal even here at the moment, need more runs up to the evening.

Edited by tomjwlx
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BM4PM Rookie

BM4PM

Posted
  • Location: Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Day after tomorrow.
  • Location: Plymouth
Posted

Unless we continue on a westerly shift then unlikely it would seem.

Its marginal even here at the moment, need more runs up to the evening.

Thanks for reply ,was looking for a glimmer of hope . Here's to the midnight runs shifting it 200 miles west :/

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Thanks for reply ,was looking for a glimmer of hope . Here's to the midnight runs shifting it 200 miles west :/

I would love for you to get some, i do feel sorry for you living in cornwall not the best place for snow but models do show chances beyond friday :)

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted (edited)

Well that just about sums it up smile.png

Tapped into some colder air it seems.

post-9173-0-55645700-1358395238_thumb.gi

Edited by tomjwlx
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hubba_dubba Newbie

hubba_dubba

Posted
  • Location: Braunton, North Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and dry. Snow would be good though.
  • Location: Braunton, North Devon
Posted

Well that just about sums it up smile.png

Tapped into some colder air it seems.

The westward shift seems to have stuck on this run then.

That will do nicely thnk you very much......

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John88B Community Regular

John88B

Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
Posted

Morning all. Well 24 hours until the snow is due to arrive and it's still looking good! Looking at the latest outputs I wouldn't be surprised to see the Meto amber warning being extended a little further south, east and west. Interesting times ahead!

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snow drift Newbie

snow drift

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Winter. Dry cool Summers
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Morning all. Well 24 hours until the snow is due to arrive and it's still looking good! Looking at the latest outputs I wouldn't be surprised to see the Meto amber warning being extended a little further south, east and west. Interesting times ahead!

I think nearer the time we will see some red warnings, if only to keep people of the roads.

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