South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 22z ----->

[PompeyFC]

Because there's a backtrack coming ?

either back it up with chart analysis or give it a rest eh ! If you can show me some proof I'll gladly listen

[A.J]

harta & Rapodo, please qualify your remarks, without qualifying your posts you both risk being labelled as WUM's, the result being your posts disappearing

[AWD]

NMM 18z hi-res output out now, snowline devon/somerset border around 5am, moderate snowfalls north & north east counties slowly easing off as energy in frontal occlusion splits, at the end of the run (17-18z friday evening) looks like a little shortwave feature sliding up the English Channel pepping up PPN as the frontal system pivots

Good NMM run for much of the region, away from known areas.

Interesting pep up of PPN Friday evening too.

[Sainsbo]

NW's snow forecast just been edited for here. Shows 18mm's over Friday and Saturday all falling as snow! No change please!

[karlos1983]

Because there's a backtrack coming ?

Because there's a backtrack speculative, or is that a hunch

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

So any idea where this split is going to occur?? I can't find anything

[harta]

No!

Because they use data from earlier runs on the both the regional and national news, plus Ian doesn't always have time to adjust things as the latest info has just been released to him. The general public don't need to be alarmed unduly...

So why has he mentioned Friday in every other news slot since Monday but not tonight?

[nettie]

Anyone on a mobile who can't see the locations I found if I go to the bottom of the page touch on full version it changes screen as if you were on computer. Hope this helps. Also not sure if it's already been mentioned or if it works on all phones. Any how roll on Friday snow snow more snow!!

[A.J]

Good NMM run for much of the region, away from known areas.

Interesting pep up of PPN Friday evening too.

it ties in with the FAX charts for 00z Sat......frontal wave sliding along english channel pepping ppn as frontal occlusion axis re-orientates WNW to ESE

[Nights King]

So why has he mentioned Friday in every other news slot since Monday but not tonight?

Don't wory it is normaly just a time thing, they are on a tight time schedule sometimes and can't go into days and week ahead always

[AWD]

So why has he mentioned Friday in every other news slot since Monday but not tonight?

He only put the updated tweets on his twitter feed out 30mins ago.

Read them for the latest.

[Bristawl Si]

Re Ian? If so, NO, just no time i guess and he'll firm up tom morning i guess on bbc local radio.

As i said yday this is a dynamic situ - these v type of events always are for our region.

Just to add, NO backtrack - why would Ian tweet approx snow accums for Friday in last hour?

Changes to come re 'sweet spots' for our region maybe - approx accum totals may change as well, i guess.

BUT overall i think pattern is firming up.

[A.J]

So any idea where this split is going to occur?? I can't find anything

see my post on last page Shaun, and my post above this one...have a look at the NMM precip spread, and then the FAX charts T48/60/72

Edited January 16, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[AWD]

So any idea where this split is going to occur?? I can't find anything

NMM shows it over Somerset/Bristol area.

[Bristawl Si]

So why has he mentioned Friday in every other news slot since Monday but not tonight?

Didnt u read my post from a few mins ago?

He didnt have time. Friday's forecast requires detail.

[harta]

Don't wory it is normaly just a time thing, they are on a tight time schedule sometimes and can't go into days and week ahead always

I understand the time issue but the thing is "Friday" IS the news for this region wouldn't you say?

[SizzlingHeat]

Where are these nmm charts. Meteociel showing 12z?

[khodds]

So why has he mentioned Friday in every other news slot since Monday but not tonight?

Probably because he's not even 100% certain of all aspects yet. But see above posts for his latest tweets.

[A.J]

Where are these nmm charts. Meteociel showing 12z?

NW Extra, if you are a subscriber

[Lynxus]

Because there's a backtrack coming ?

Hmm, I find that unlikely.

But I would suspect that because of the possible disruption. They want to get it as correct as possible ( Because people may need to make go to work or not go to work kinda decisions )

Telling people DO NOT DRIVE! may be needed and I suspect they want to be very accurate with that.

[Blizzardof82]

NMM shows it over Somerset/Bristol area.

I was reading Simon Keelings musings earlier he said where the spilt takes place could see less snow???http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtvsimonnew.php?ID=587 Edit here is the link

Edited January 16, 2013 by Blizzardof82

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The faxes tell me that there a break away ppn that I suggested earlier , so an area of snow moving east but the main front with ppn is still to the west of us?? Am I reading that right?

I thought you meant a divide in the ppn as in leaving an area dry and going around it ?!

If someone can confirm with me pls its been a long day !

Also there's talk of it pepping up fri night again as it pivots?

Edited January 16, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Lynxus]

The faxes tell me that there a break away ppn that I suggested earlier , so an area of snow moving east but the main front with ppn is still to the west of us?? Am I reading that right?

I thought you meant a divide in the ppn as in leaving an area dry and going around it ?!

If someone can confirm with me pls its been a long day !

Also there's talk of it pepping up fri night again as it pivots?

PIVOTTTTT!!!! ( the many hours screaming that during the summer has killed me )

The problem we have at the moment is the GFS is still on its own as to where the LP goes to.. Depending of its its correct or not will determine the snow amounts.

I hope the GFS follows the other models come tomorrow morning.

[A.J]

The faxes tell me that there a break away ppn that I suggested earlier , so an area of snow moving east but the main front with ppn is still to the west of us?? Am I reading that right?

I thought you meant a divide in the ppn as in leaving an area dry and going around it ?!

If someone can confirm with me pls its been a long day !

Also there's talk of it pepping up fri night again as it pivots?

what I'm seeing Shaun is that after the initial snows Friday am, snowfall will transfer northwards along the frontal boundary, then friday pm looks like a frontal wave will transfer energy southeastwards (as the LP centre tracks SE wards) and along the english channel, pepping up ppn along southern counties (as far north as say Wilts) ....by 12z Saturday, the LP centre is located in the English Channel with occluded frontal system straddling WNW -ESE across southern most counties

to save any confusion, the initial occl front shown on the FAX charts over central/eastern england is a decaying feature that is currently giving very light ppn over the Irish sea/west wales into parts of somerset

Edited January 16, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[Dean E]

Can someone help me out? Upgarde for South Central coast or not? Slight Westerly correction is a good thing, yes? Charts look good to my untrained eye, but sense negativity...........

Personally, anyone in a coastal location East of Lyme Bay/Isle of Portland should expect some snow. Go around 3 to 5 miles in land, will most likely be snow (surface temps and DP are more than favorable)

SM