Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 06z ----->

A.J

By A.J
in Regional

 Share

Recommended Posts

Beasterly Apprentice

Beasterly

Posted
  • Location: Kidlington, Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine & Snow
  • Location: Kidlington, Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

06z looks like it has slightly shifted eastwards but not too much. It's probably being more progressive considering its the 6z!

prectypeuktopo.png

prectypeuktopo.png

Edited by Beasterly
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Thought it worthy of a post.

Very nice!! Sun has finally bucked up here too!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

06z gfs pushes everything east by 50 miles or so.

ah just like I said it would, the last few days the 06z has done that, only for the 12z to edge back westward again!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
rodders Newbie

rodders

Posted
  • Location: Nr Truro, Cornwall
  • Location: Nr Truro, Cornwall
Posted

It's getting there, but I'd still like a couple more westward shifts yet just to make it a tad more comfortable.

How do you think we feel! Lest start chanting West West West.

Been a long time lurker and don't often post as don't have much to add to the conversation. Just spare a thought for us in the far Southwest still looks like we are heading for rain!

Hold on to the roller coaster!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
offerman Seasoned

offerman

Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
Posted

Beasterly, if it has shifted it i noticed it keeps it as snow and no rain even if it goes further east.Nice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Still looking OK for you guys away from South and Western coasts:

prectypeuktopo.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted (edited)

Those of you who follow Ian on twitter will notice that he's hinted at light snow on Thursday evening being a possibility now too.

Similiar to the NAE.

Edited by AWD
Link to comment
Share on other sites
lfcdude Accomplished

lfcdude

Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
Posted

06z looks like it has slightly shifted eastwards but not too much. It's probably being more progressive considering its the 6z!

prectypeuktopo.png

prectypeuktopo.png

Looks excellent! Nice dark pinky red over alot of us in Wiltshire Somerset Bristol Dorset Gloucester Hampshire

Link to comment
Share on other sites
AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Hi, I;'ve seen a few comments re the 06Z re eastward shifts, and the 12Z will shunt it back westwards, was just wondering if there's anything different from the 06z and 12z model runs?? Cheers guys....

12z is generally a little more reliable due to having a tad more data input to it.

Been a common theme of late for the 06z run to be eastern biased, only for the 12z run to correct west again.

Not saying it will happen this time, it might not, just saying that's been the scenario recently.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
theprophecyman Newbie

theprophecyman

Posted
  • Location: Frome
  • Location: Frome
Posted

12z is generally a little more reliable due to having a tad more data input to it.

Been a common theme of late for the 06z run to be eastern biased, only for the 12z run to correct west again.

Not saying it will happen this time, it might not, just saying that's been the scenario recently.

Lovely, cheers AWD....

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Beast of Plympton Enthusiast

Beast of Plympton

Posted
  • Location: Plympton St Maurice, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold and Storms
  • Location: Plympton St Maurice, Devon
Posted (edited)

What is it with Devon and Cornwall? I think I am morphing into the green eyed monster

Don't worry, if it happens it will happen. Model forecasting systems are just that, they forecast the weather, they are no crystal ball. And with the 2 biggest forecasters in the country being the BBC and the Met Office are not even sure I think in reality this is going to be a now casting event.

I am not getting excited or disheartened until friday. If I look out of the window and see tarmac, I will be disheartened, if I see snow, excited!! There is my weather forecast for the day rofl.gif

Edited by Beast of Dartmoor
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Looks like possibly snowing for 40 hours in Wilts....that is pretty epic if it happens. 15 cm seems a small amount!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Eastward movement of front, but still keeps the sw under the precip, so it doesnt really matter, trend seems to emerging to push the cold air back into devon etc pretty earlier during friday night which will help to keep the sw under snow.

Totals of 15-25cm widely on the gfs again so i would expect given this and the nae that evertthing is raised to an amber alert and precip totals maybe increased.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

GFS high res highlights the south east flow well, important for us and will reintroduce colder dewpoints etc,

Rmgfs721.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Still looking OK for you guys away from South and Western coasts:

prectypeuktopo.png

Looking good for a vast whiteout, away from the extremities.

As ever, like AWD says, I await the GFS 12z and other suites with interest but even then we are still t+48 or further away, guys n gals.

I'm far from saying it won't happen but it will be a whole lot different to that currently projected.

Stick with NMM and NAE and Fax Charts withinn 24 hours of the event (tomorrow afternoon I guess) which will show the expected positioning of the fronts too.

Anybody with plans getting out and about within this region should watch the aforementioned forecasts before making any arrangements for travel. This has the potential to dump a whole lot of SNOW it seems, possibly more than the accumaltive 9 inches originally suggested by the GFS 12z on Friday. (Once again I refer you to the last two paragraphs on the original as mentioned)

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2490164

However, as we know, simply a few inches can bring disruption, so take care and stick to these regionals for updates.

I'll still be lurking around and watching the latest as it unfolds.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
Link to comment
Share on other sites
PompeyFC Enthusiast

PompeyFC

Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
Posted

Still looking OK for you guys away from South and Western coasts:

prectypeuktopo.png

even on the coast I think that will fall as snow as there could well be lying snow already from duruing the day and the temp drop overnight when thats falling will probably see it as the white stuff

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Looks like possibly snowing for 40 hours in Wilts....that is pretty epic if it happens. 15 cm seems a small amount!

I quite agree, something doesnt add up when the meto forecast is for 12 hrs of heavy snow but only 5-15cm..... Heavy in my book is at least 2mm an hr if not alot more....

Link to comment
Share on other sites
gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

West west west!

Where you located?

Please can you update your profile to show your location. Especially useful when the precipitation starts falling.

And of course, welcome aboard netweather towers. hi.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

As ever, like AWD says, I await the GFS 12z and other suites with interest but even then we are still t+48 or further away, guys n gals.

GFS 12z will be the teller :winky: I have high confidence for our area to the East of you lot, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed you get a belter in the S and SW too!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

GFS high res highlights the south east flow well, important for us and will reintroduce colder dewpoints etc,

Rmgfs721.gif

Absolutely noone should be complaining about that particular chart, that is dreamland synoptics. acute.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...