London & South East Regional Discussion - January 16th 2013>

[Coast]

Morning!

So,watching the forecast on BBC breakfast this morning,it`s showing that fri/sat snow is centered around the midlands (probably!).

What i was wondering is,what it would take to shift it a little more towards us? Or,as i guess,it`ll be nowcasting on the day.

I really wouldn't worry too much about that, you'll have plenty of the white stuff!

[Paul Sherman]

Bang in the dry slot

[Jimmyh]

Paul I was thinking exactly the se thing ll

[Guest archiesmummy]

It's weird here, it looks like light snow but I suspect its where the fog is just freezing but it is settling as such...never seen such a thick frost.

Can't wait til Fri now!

[msx999]

let these Northerners/SW'ers have their rubbish frontal snow...

Our time will come.

[manutdmatt1986]

Looks like eastern areas could pick up a lot of snow showers ahead of Friday's frontal system as easterly winds increase. Or am I barking up the wrong tree?

[anything-but]

I really wouldn't worry too much about that, you'll have plenty of the white stuff!

Now.all i have to worry about is do i go into work friday? Do *NOT* fancy getting caught out on the bike in that lot!

Do we have a guestimate about what time it`s due our way?

[Essexgooner]

Morning

Foggy with a light snow grains following onto a already icy areas here in Little Wakering.

Temp - 4 currently.......

Do like the way we are in the dry slot as Paul said for Friday, lol..........

[StLuke]

Light to moderate snow starting to fall in Central Southend which is a surprise.

[Coast]

Now.all i have to worry about is do i go into work friday? Do *NOT* fancy getting caught out on the bike in that lot!

Do we have a guestimate about what time it`s due our way?

Timing is totally down to radar watching but like you, I'm not getting stuck here at work all weekend!! I suspect sometime on Friday morning it will start and probably not stop until Saturday afternoon.

[snowbob]

I reckon by fri it may not even reach us

Which means we stay cold anyway

Bring on the beast

Much better than frontal snow

But where is it lol

[craigore]

Quite a decent snow shower going on here

Did you get mch last night? we have a good dusting in ramsgate ,but was expecting more the showers had no ipower in them and just seemed to fade away as soon as they hit, still there seem to be a lot more out in the n.sea wth brighter colours in them so hopefully they will be heavier ones.

[A Wintry Mix]

My wife thinks Thanet has some sort of snow curse over it!

Temp -0.6

[Paul Sherman]

Send it this way Guys

Waaaa I am surrounded, Great Wakering and Central Southend has snow - Blow it this way guys!

[bluespider]

BBC 5 day forecast shows Ashford (Kent) as 4oc on Sunday, that won't be good for keeping any laying snow if proven correct?!

[anything-but]

Timing is totally down to radar watching but like you, I'm not getting stuck here at work all weekend!! I suspect sometime on Friday morning it will start and probably not stop until Saturday afternoon.

Think i`ll play it safe friday tbh,being a motorcycle courier+snow isn`t favorable for staying in the vertical!

[Coast]

Think i`ll play it safe friday tbh,being a motorcycle courier+snow isn`t favorable for staying in the vertical!

I think you're best bet is a day off and some serious lamppost watching.

I reckon by fri it may not even reach us

Eh????? Are you for real?????

[StLuke]

Send it this way Guys

Waaaa I am surrounded, Great Wakering and Central Southend has snow - Blow it this way guys!

I'm on your way to work so hopefully it will follow, looking at the radar returns you would think hardly anything but definate light snow for 20 mins now.

[SMU]

So not much chance to post today-

Great temps there over in norfolk- could we squeeze a -18 tonight- somewhere at one of the RAF bases-

So there will be a lot of talk in the Model thread today about snow to rain-

these comments are 100% up to date with the ECM & UKMO overnight- no GFS im afraid-

The synopsis again is low pressure in the atlantic pushing NE towards western scotland- but the jet tilted strongly SE across wales & the SW-

this will ensure that winds stay southerly- eventually swinging SE and then as front fragments & shears more of a SE flow- but very slack for the SE-

Strong southerly Friday Late- SE overnight friday into Sat - then overnight sat slack SE flow-

Because of the fact there has been MINIMAl corrections east over the last 24 hours for the SE at least it seems an ALL snow affair ( that is ignore the model divergence for late sunday at the moment )

UKMO PPN shows well for friday- at T60 ( midnight friday into sat)

is the landing zone-

http://www.meteociel...0-594.GIF?16-06

Surface temps- FINE

http://www.meteociel...0-580.GIF?16-06 the 0c line back over BRISTOL- so ALL SNOW

T 72 the PPN has moved out towards the low countries on the eastern edge- this is important

PPN is still all snow except possibly the extreme SW along the coast-

as we can temp wise midday sat-

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U72-580.GIF?16-06 remember the ground will be frozen-

so thats 12 hours of snow- moderate intensity- based on the output the warnings from the METO should be 5-15CM

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/130116_0000_78.png

The ECM is slightly further East & clearing at 78-

so possibly slightly lower totals-

the IMPORTANT BIT-

The chance of corrections from the models is more than likely WEST not east-

so this mornings eastern t72 extent here is in the channel-

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U72-594.GIF?16-06

see where it is tonight at t60-

as it stands its PERFECT from the UKMo for friday / sat- but as you can see just 50 miles west & east kent start missing out-

100 miles west & the whole of kent & suffolk & parts of essex miss out-

200 miles west & we all miss out-

Now the chances of 200 miles at t72 is unlikely but still just about possible- we alos have the lower possbility of corrections east-

the snow line is 150 miles west so thats our margin.

The sweet spot I would say for our region is the the whole of london at the moment & of course places directly adjacent-

but follow midnight friday into sat as to where you fair in the swings & roundabouts over the next 48 hours-

If the cloud & snow fragments Sat PM- expect sat night to possibly be the coldest night of the winter with -10s around.

lastly-

ECM shows another shortwave sliding across Sunday into Monday-

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/130116_0000_126.png

this will be another snow event possibly turning to sleet & rain in the SW of the region late monday-

post that there could be a 24 hour period of milder air pushing in- but that depends on wherethe 0c isotherm lands..

have a good day-

the 06z will be t66 for midnight Sat for reference PPN if anyone chooses to post it up-

S

Edited January 16, 2013 by Steve Murr

[anything-but]

I think you're best bet is a day off and some serious lamppost watching.

Indeed!

Word to the weather gods,a repeat of this would be handy ta.

*Dec 2010*

[Ice BIast]

My wife thinks Thanet has some sort of snow curse over it!

Temp -0.6

Looks like we'll see more snow soon looking at the radar.

[swash]

Thanks for that Steve, most informative post I've seen today by far

[Charltonkerry]

Fog is descending now, with it the temperature is dropping.

Now -2.1

Dew point -3.0

Just off to work, and I am not saying what I am going to do to the car after my last dismal effort.

[Jayces]

I'll believe it when I see it.

GFS this morning again slightly West so snow not quite reaching us.

To see how much things change you only need to look at the charts John P posted on page 1/2 quoting weather porn, well they have updated on the 0z and are the same links and show mild and we weather over the SE, i'm sure that wasn't how it was last night lol

[SMU]

thanks for the temps ck- good to here- anything decending temp wise is excellent...

S