Are our Winters changing?

[Methuselah]

Nothing at all to do with what you refer to as "invocation of deadly new AGW effects", 4...Just facing the inescapable fact that the ice has melted...I think that, rather than going into denial-mode, we'd be better off if we attempted to understand what's going on?

What difference maketh it, whether the ice-melt has natural or man-made causes?

[Continental Climate]

In mid december we would have probably said they were changing for the worse ( ie back to mild) or 'reverting back to norm'!! The SSW has saved us this year i think without it decembers pattern would have continued!!

[BornFromTheVoid]

No, 4wd, that's not what the studies claim and it's not just based off 2 or 3 cold spells in the UK. Reading the papers will make that clear.

The aggressive tone and dismissive nature of your post is a fine example of what's gone wrong in the climate area.

+1 on what Rybris said too.

[Gray-Wolf]

I think it very important to ditch the 'How we got here' discussions for the climate/environment threads and stick to the 'here' discussions and how being 'here' might influence our winters in the UK?

We have some very novel conditions for our climate system right now and it might prove both educational and informative to explore how those changes will continue to impact the weather we see here?

I think it a no brainer that with the amount of extra energy available to our climate system, that the early loss of ice/snow brings, that we will see impacts from the energy such an early meltout leaves redundant?

If you look at it another way you could say we have a near permanent 'super Nino's' worth of energy now filtering into the climate system each year.

None of us would argue as to whether a 'super Nino' impacts our global climate, season to season, so why would we argue that similar amounts of available energy in the climate system (in a differing geographic position) would not wreak similar impacts across the year?

It appears that this has been an effect adding into the 'natural' since the end of the 90's but only since the ice melt componant flared up , in 07', have we started to really feel the impacts of this 'new energy' on our northern hemisphere climate.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[blueballs]

I don`t think there can be any deniying that solar output has a massive effect on climate, our recent cold winters and wet summers correlate perfectly with the decrease in output from the sun in recent years. there are undoubatably many other factors that affect the patterns we see in the NH but i would say most of these are somehow inter-related to either low or high solar activity which would lead me to belive that the colder winters we have been experincing in the last few years are likely to become the norm and the winters of the 90`s will be much less frequent.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Bound to be many factors involved, but the pattern of cooler and milder winters are reflected in the long term winter plots of AO http://www.cpc.ncep....ason.JFM.ao.gif and NAO http://www.cpc.ncep....son.JFM.nao.gif

But what are causing these?

The PDO doesn't match the series of warm and cold winters very well, nor the AO and NAO and this paper http://nzc.iap.ac.cn..._csbe_2006a.pdf suggests that the influence is the other way round -

The results indicate that AO plays an important role in the low frequency variability of PDO. When AO leads PDO by 7/8 years, the lagging correlation between them becomes the strongest with correlation coefficient 0.77.

However, the correlation between them always keeps low (r < 0.3) when PDO leads AO on decadal timescale.

Cheers I, but if one looks at NAO phases and PDO phases over last 100+ years there is a decent 'fit'. AO different animal it seems. NAO for sure makes the jet 'meridional' and southerly tracking in our quadrant..but just a part of the picture

BFTP

[Methuselah]

Cheers I, but if one looks at NAO phases and PDO phases over last 100+ years there is a decent 'fit'. AO different animal it seems. NAO for sure makes the jet 'meridional' and southerly tracking in our quadrant..but just a part of the picture

BFTP

Of course there's a 'fit', Fred...Isn't the NAO merely a way of indexing the prevailing synoptic pattern?

[marky810]

I'd say that our summers are changing more than our winters if the last 6 are anything to go by.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Of course there's a 'fit', Fred...Isn't the NAO merely a way of indexing the prevailing synoptic pattern?

Yes, and it seems to respond in showing its hand moreso in -ve PDO phases.

BFTP

[BornFromTheVoid]

Basic correlation between the annual PDO and NAO since 1950.

Year by year = 0.13. Not statistically significant

With a 1 year lag = 0.19. Not statistically significant

With a 2 year lag = 0.38. Significant at the 99% level.

With a 3 year lag = 0.16. Not statistically significant

So with a 2 year lag, we should be looking at the 2011 PDO, which had a value of -1.23.

This is the 2nd most -ve PDO value (after 2008) since 1971, and so should favour a -ve NAO this year.

Edited January 17, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Gray-Wolf]

I think that this year we need also look at the scale of the positive sst anoms across the N.Atlantic up into the Arctic basin? I believe the impacts of the warmer ocean will have an instant impact on the weather the larger patterns drive?

We also need ponder why we are seeing such anoms in the Atlantic basin and whether these are a one off or a continuation of an extablished trend?

When we look at the preponderance of S.Greenland H.P. systems over the years since 07' I have to wonder about all that clear blue above leading to extra heat in the ocean below?

[Interitus]

Basic correlation between the annual PDO and NAO since 1950.

Year by year = 0.13. Not statistically significant

With a 1 year lag = 0.19. Not statistically significant

With a 2 year lag = 0.38. Significant at the 99% level.

With a 3 year lag = 0.16. Not statistically significant

So with a 2 year lag, we should be looking at the 2011 PDO, which had a value of -1.23.

This is the 2nd most -ve PDO value (after 2008) since 1971, and so should favour a -ve NAO this year.

Managed to recreate your results and if the lag is the other way round (PDO following NAO) a four year lag gives a correlation of 0.38 with a three year lag higher at 0.43.

[hillbilly]

i think people have different memories of winters depending where in the uk they are in the worst winters its amaziny how places differ.for me these last few winters are more like the 80s but havnt had the volumes of snow and a distinct lack of wind.we used to have real blizzards even 2010 lacked the winds of the 80s 90,95.maybe we are in a custer of colder winters

[weather eater]

To the basic question of, whether our winters changing, I would have to say not especially, It seems to me, to be just a case of natural variability and that’s despite the fact that I class myself as being in the, I believe in AGW camp. A lot has been made of the last few winters but I would say that other than one very cold December (2010), the only thing that stands out, is that four out of the last five have been a bit colder than most of the winters of the late 90s early 2000s, but frankly those recent winters have been nothing special when compared to winters in the 60s or late 70s early 80s, as somebody pointed out earlier, it’s our recent summers rather than our winters that seem to have changed. So the question in regards our recent winters may well be this, if we have entered a natural cycle of colder winters then are they getting as cold and snowy as they should be, because they seem rather tame to me. Take out that one December and the rest seem pretty ordinary to this 50 year old.

[Weather-history]

Here is the list of those periods that contained at least 5 consecutive days of a CET daily mean of at least 0C or less. The CET average for that period is given. Maybe one or two errors as I did it manually. divided the list into decades.

Interesting to note the last 5 winters have provided a sustained period of cold of varying intensity in the CET area.

16th-20th Jan 2013: -0.8C provisionally

8th-12th Feb: 2012: -1.54

17th-27th Dec 2010: -3.93

26th Nov - 4th Dec 2010: -1.9

3rd-10th Jan 2010: -2.3

18th-24th Dec 2009: -1.1

16th-20th Jan 2001: -0.78

31st Dec 1996- 4th Jan 1997: -1.66

25th-29th Jan 1996: -1.26

25th Dec-30th Dec 1995: -2.45

3rd-14th Feb 1991: -1.9

8th-19th Jan 1987: -3.0

20th-27th Feb 1986: -2.31

6th-18th Feb 1986: -1.51

9th-19th Feb 1985: -2.72

12th-18th Jan 1985: -2.31

6th-15th Jan 1982: -4.03

22nd-26th Dec 1981: -1.28

16th-20th Dec 1981: -2.62

8th-14th Dec 1981: -3.51

14th-18th Feb 1979: -1.8

21st-28th Jan 1979: -1.72

31st Dec 1978-6th Jan 1979: -2.91

27th Nov-1st Dec 1978: -0.6

9th-13th Feb 1978: -1.7

30th Jan-3rd Feb 1976: -0.72

31st Dec 1970- 5th Jan 1971: -1.92

11th-16th Feb 1970: -0.9

4th-8th Jan 1970: -2.28

13th-19th Feb 1969: -1.71

8th-12th Jan 1968: -1.6

19th-24th Dec 1963: -1.35

16th-20th Feb 1963: -0.74

1st-7th Feb 1963: -2.06

7th-26th Jan 1963: -3.56

23rd Dec 1962-3rd Jan 1963: -2.37

2nd-6th Dec 1962: -1.08

23rd-29th Dec 1961: -2.01

21st-25th Jan 1958: -1.86

14th-26th Feb 1956: -1.71

31st Jan-4th Feb 1956: -4.08

17th-28th Feb 1955: -1.825

26th Jan-7th Feb 1954: -2.49

1st-8th March 1947: -1.64

5th-26th Feb 1947: -2.46

24th Jan-2nd Feb 1947: -2.08

15th-22nd Jan 1946: -1.51

20th-29th Jan 1945: -3.52

25th-29th Dec 1944: -1.32

16th-23rd Feb 1942: -1.5

14th-22nd Jan 1942: -2.52

15th-19th Jan 1941: -2.04

2nd-6th January 1941: -2.58

10th-19th Feb 1940: -1.84

10th-24th Jan 1940: -3.49

18th-22nd Dec 1938: -2.34

18th-24th Dec 1935: -1.96

22nd-27th Jan 1933: -1.65

26th Feb-2nd Mar 1929: -1.76

11th-19th Feb 1929: -4.61

16th Dec-20th 1927: -2.86

13th-18th Jan 1926: -2.4

12th-16th Dec 1920: -1.66

8th-13th Feb 1919: -1.78

1st-11th Feb 1917: -2.92

21st-30th Jan 1917: -1.27

1st-6th Feb 1909: -1.57

27th-31st Dec 1908: -3.12

26th-30th Dec 1906: -1.5

20th-25th Dec 1904: -1.53

23rd-27th Nov 1904: -1.96

12th-17th Jan 1903: -1.88

4th-8th Dec 1902: -1.9

10th-14th Feb 1902: -2.26

5th-9th Jan 1901: -0.64

7th-13th Feb 1900: -2.11

9th-17th Feb 1899: -1.53

5th-18th Feb 1895: -4.81

26th Jan -1st Feb 1895: -2.97

9th-13th Jan 1895: -2.16

3rd-8th Jan 1894: -4.4

24th Dec 1892-7th Jan 1893: -3.31

16th Feb-20th Feb 1892: -2.82

8th-16th Jan 1892: -1.64

20th-25th Dec 1891: -3.67

5th-11th Jan 1891: -2.04

28th Dec 1890-2nd Jan 1891: -1.32

9th-26th Dec 1890: -2.14

22nd-26th Feb 1888: -1.08

8th-27th Jan 1881: -4.38

18th-29th Jan 1880: -2.07

30th Nov-8th Dec 1879: -3.37

28th Jan -1st Feb 1879: -0.64

2nd-12th Jan 1879: -2.31

20th-26th Dec 1878: -3.24

8th-17th Dec 1878: -2.95

25th-31st Dec 1874: -2.86

14th-18th Dec 1874: -4.5

25th-31st Jan 1871: -0.97

21st Dec 1870-4th Jan 1871: -4.11

9th-14th Feb 1870: -2.38

11th-21st Jan 1867: -2.85

31st Dec 1866-5th Jan 1867: -3.9

10th-16th 1865: -1.73

19th-23rd Feb 1864: -1.08

1st-8th Jan 1864: -3.43

16th-20th Jan 1862: -1.7

2nd-10th Jan 1861: -2.32

17th-29th Dec 1860: -2.1

9th-14th Feb 1860: -2

13th-19th Dec 1859: -4.89

10th-14th Jan 1856: -0.98

6th-23rd Feb 1855: -3.71

25th Dec 1853-5th Jan 1854: -1.93

11th-21st Feb 1853: -1.23

6th-16th Jan 1850: -1.35

7th-13th Feb 1847: -2.61

11th-16th Dec 1846: -2.63

12th-17th Mar 1845: -2.92

7th-13th Feb 1845: -2.3

5th-14th Dec 1844: -2.68

13th-18th Feb 1843: -1.06

7th-11th Jan 1842: -1.02

1st-10th Feb 1841: -2.94

3rd-9th Jan 1841: -3.96

5th-9th March 1839: -1.32

10th-17th Feb 1838: -2.08

8th-21st Jan 1838: -5.14

20th-24th March 1837: -0.7

24th Dec 1836- 2nd Jan 1837: -1.27

22nd-26th Dec 1835: -1.94

4th-8th Jan 1835: -2.36

21st-25th Jan 1833: -1

23rd-27th Dec 1830: -3.36

30th Jan-6th Feb 1830: -4.55

12th-20th Jan 1830: -2.43

23rd Dec 1829-1st Jan 1830: -1.42

16th-25th Jan 1829: -2.91

16th-20th Feb 1827: -2.78

19th-27th Jan 1827: -2

8th-17th Jan 1826: -3.7

9th-26th Jan 1823: -2.96

26th Dec 1822-1st Jan 1823: -2.1

25th Dec 1820-4th Jan 1821: -1.32

3rd-16th Jan 1820: -3.57

24th Dec 1819-1st Jan 1820: -2.41

8th-14th Dec 1819: -2.94

22nd-26th Dec 1817: -0.96

7th-13th Feb 1816: -3.29

28th jan -1st Feb 1816: -2.06

19th-27th Jan 1815: -2.06

3rd-7th Jan 1815: -0.42

6th-10th Mar 1814: -0.64

20th-27th Feb 1814: -1.56

27th Dec 1813-27th Jan 1814: -3.15

21st-25th Jan 1813: -1.08

12th-16th Dec 1812: -1.46

26th-31st Dec 1811: -1.47

29th Dec 1810- 10th Jan 1811: -1.52

16th-22nd Feb 1810: -1.97

14th-23rd Jan 1809: -2.3

19th-26th Dec 1808: -2.24

5th-10th Dec 1803: -1.72

7th-12th Feb 1803: -1.8

25th-30th Jan 1803: -2.22

10th-16th Jan 1803: -2.13

10th-16th Jan 1802: -2.94

12th-20th Dec 1801: -2.28

5th-9th Mar 1800: -0.82

27th Dec 1799- 2nd Jan 1800: -2.66

19th-25th Dec 1799: -1.82

28th Jan-8th Feb 1799: -2.57

31st Dec 1798-7th Jan 1799: -0.7

24th-29th Dec 1798: -5.38

21st-27th Dec 1796: -3.59

30th Nov-11th Dec 1796: -1.78

17th-22nd Feb 1795: -2.52

29th Jan-7th Feb 1795: -1.56

10th-26th Jan 1795: -3.79

31st Dec 1794-6th Jan 1795: -4.1

17th-21st Feb 1792: -2.32

2nd-9th Jan 1789: -2.76

27th-31st Dec 1788: -2.34

12th-20th Dec 1788: -2.49

29th Dec 1785-4th Jan 1786: -4.21

9th-15th Feb 1784: -1.74

18th Jan-1st Feb 1784: -2.07

6th-11th Jan 1784: -2.28

27th Dec 1783-1st Jan 1784: -3.37

21st Jan-3rd Feb 1780: -1

8th-15th Jan 1780: -4.03

7th Jan -1st Feb 1776: -2.96

31st Dec 1773-5th Jan 1774: -2.28

7th-13th Feb 1773: -1.54

17th-21st Jan 1772: -1.3

Edited January 21, 2013 by Weather-history

[weather eater]

Seems to back what I said WH, take out Dec 2010 and the rest seem pretty ordinary cold spells which would slot into any decade as a decent cold snap. There seems little evidence for some sort of quantifiable and crucial change in our winters, other than (and long may it continue) we appear to be doing better than we were in the very poor late 90s early 2000s.

[hillbilly]

Before 2008, the last 10 years had featured predominately mild winters with little or no snowfall, in February 2009 we were unexpectedly hit with extreme weather, with huge depths of snowfall and very low overnight temperatures like we had not seen at the time for nearly 20 years. I was watching 'Extreme Snowstorm' on channel 4 which went through the February 2009 event caused by Sudden Stratospheric warming, there was an interview with Boris John, and he said 'It's a one in 20 year event'. Then come the middle of December 2009 our weather changed and we were again hit with extreme weather with again huge depths of snowfall and very low overnight temperatures, the cold didn't relent until the middle of February. 'This was the most widespread and prolonged spell of this type across the UK since December 1981/January 1982.' We had 2 extreme weather events in 2 years, and it didn't stop there! During the end of November we were again hit with extreme weather, and this time it was even worse. The coldest December in 100 years as we all known followed on from there.

Last Winter overall was mild, but we were so close to again having extreme weather yet again, but it just missed us putting Europe in the freezer instead. Although places were still pretty cold in February 2012, with very cold overnight lows in the SE and Yorkshire. We got 15cm here as the Atlantic tried to break through, that snow depth before 2008 in the previous 10 years just never happened for low level England. This Winter has been average so far up until a few days ago, although nowhere near as severe so far it's still pretty cold for the last Decade. There is a chance that we could get some heavy snowfall and more extreme weather this weekend/next week and if this happens then we will yet again get more extreme weather.

Are our Winter's changing?

just to note december 1981 was colder than 2010 in our area .check out met office historic station data for bradford!

[mike Meehan]

In the last few years we have had some significantly colder spells especailly after the milder winters of most of the noughties, though this changed towards the end with snowfall at the end of October, which I had never experienced before.

For most of my life the early threats of wintry precipition tended to come about mid December, then it was usually a mild Christmas, though there have been some exceptions with the first real snows arriving, when they did, (if I recall correctly 1960/61 was a snowless winter with I believe a Bartlett high predominating) during January or February.

During some of the years we experienced some very cold spells with highs in the region of -5C but although this last session has been snowy, it has been nothing like as cold as that but I put that down to the cold being less intense on the continent, at least in Germany and Poland.

I was quite impressed by the forecaster, two or three nights ago on the TV, who gave us a small insight into Sudden Stratospheric Warming and how it can affect the normal pattern of atmospheric circulation and the jet streams and although this idea is still in its infancy the cause and effect of this particular cold spell was explained, so I tend to give it some weight.

This leads me on to wonder what does cause this sudden warming. - it can't be the direct action of the sun because those polar regions are in darkness 24/7, though even with the air as this as it is at those altitudes it must take quite a lot of energy, so if it is not coming directly from the sun where does it come from?

The only thing I can think of off the top of my head is that it could be an interaction between the Earth's magnetosphere and incoming radiation from space, which would include the sun. We know that there is some interaction there because it gives rise to the Aurora Bolearis.

PC studies the sun's cycles and applies these to the effect on long range weather forecasting, sometimes he is right and sometimes not - Joe laminate floori during his tenure with Accuweather studied 'cycles' not the Lance Armstrong type and came to the conclusion that we were due for a period of colder winters over the next 20 years or so. Since he said this, the winters in the UK and Europe appear to have been somewhat colder with more snow incidents, some of which have been very unusual, such as snow in the south of the UK at the end of October, which before the last few years I can never recall happening previously during my lifetime.

The traditional models work out to a certain extent but after a few days they can become inaccurate and lead to misleading forecasts. The chaos theory can be blamed for this to a fairly large extent but it does seem to me that they are working on less than full information, so inaccuracies are bound to happen.

What it requires, in my view, is a good open study of all these different theories, though PC does play his cards close to his chest but in the interests of the furtherance of scientific knowledge he should make his methods open to the rest of the scientific community for study, otherwise he remains saddled with the reputation of a charlatan selling snake oil as a cure all for everything.

With such further research, including the effect of possible solar cycles etc, it is likely that the accuracy of long range weather forecasting could be improved and a better understanding of the mechanisms of how the weather does what it does can be reached.

As to whether our climate is changing in the long term, it is difficult to say, just that there are quite wide variations within the natural cycles.

[UV-RAY]

Seems to back what I said WH, take out Dec 2010 and the rest seem pretty ordinary cold spells which would slot into any decade as a decent cold snap. There seems little evidence for some sort of quantifiable and crucial change in our winters, other than (and long may it continue) we appear to be doing better than we were in the very poor late 90s early 2000s.

I think that's a fair assessment taking away December 2010 and January 2010, but I think that works both ways in terms of any warming. The last thirty years really hasn't produced many memorable hot spells. IMO it's all part and parcel of what we should expect in this part of the world.

[cheeky_monkey]

I think that's a fair assessment taking away December 2010 and January 2010, but I think that works both ways in terms of any warming. The last thirty years really hasn't produced many memorable hot spells. IMO it's all part and parcel of what we should expect in this part of the world.

Queue the floods of dissent on this one.

[cyclonic happiness]

It does stand out to me more than anything, that the summers have really gone down the drain in the past 6 years, the winters seem to be gradually following.

Also, the way we seem to get stuck in patterns of weather that last for 6-7 weeks on end and there's not the diversity of weather we used to experience.

I think perception is more important sometime than science when regarding climate change.

[noggin]

May I post my observations on the changing of Winters?

I go back quite a long way (born in 1956) and my birthday is in February. I have had an avid interest in the weather since I was a young girl who insisted on going out to dance in the rain, much to my Mother's annoyance!

My comments are for Februarys, as I have always particularly noted the weather on my birthday.

As a child and teenager, there was nearly always snow, either falling or lying on the ground on my birthday.

In my twenties/thirties, I was reduced to having frost on my birthday.

In my forties....total rubbish...mild, damp dross.

In my fifties....it seems to be reverting back to snow.

I reckon it's all cycles. Cycles within cycles. Cycles within cycles within cycles.........

.........and I am sure we understand only a little about how they inter-act.

PS Hello, Wolfie.

[weather eater]

Si. Certainly the last few years have not produced any memorable hot summer weather, though that’s not true worldwide and there were some very hot summers in the 90s and into the early 2000s, what we have seen is plenty of very wet summers. Noggin I too am a great believer in weather cycles and in AGW, what I don’t believe in is either or. In other words if it isn’t that then it must be this, that’s seems to be a rather naive view point although plenty on NW seems to buy into it on both sides of the debate. However let’s not get sidetracked by discussions that can be had in plenty on other areas of the site. So are winters getting worse or just reverting to a similar position pre the long spell of mild ones.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below are 2 maps showing mean sea level pressure for winter.

The first is the average from 1950-2000, while the second is from 2007-2012. Below them is a animated gif to make the difference easier to see.

While the differences are quite subtle, the is a noticeably large increase in SLP to our east, as well as a slight drop in pressure to our north west

Here are the same charts for December, January and February

A stronger and earlier Siberian high related to the increased early winter snowfall perhaps?

Edited January 21, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Colsuth]

Here on the shores of the Moray Firth I think the winters have become very disappointing (for snow). I have no sceintific evidence for this but it seems like we get the same weather all year round. Cool wet summers and mild wet winters ( 14 C - Christmas day 2011 and some days in july 2012 12C)