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ajpoolshark

South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->

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Ok, a fresh thread with a plea for constructive posting. By all means, discuss all things weather related to our region, but remember that we have no control over the weather yet do have control over our emotions when posting....ta!

Old thread here ----->

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Yep ive written off this winter now personally for us on the coast, looking at the strength of the Jet like i said last week, its powering up, looking very wet again, not good after all the rain we have had! I just cant see it changing, think there is far to much straw clutching going on and too many getting hyped up about the SSW

Come on, chin up. It's a beautiful day, we've got a yellow warning for Friday and due to a shopping malfunction at the weekend, I've just had pizza for lunch.

Today is a good day. Friday might be great.

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Come on, chin up. It's a beautiful day, we've got an Amber warning for Friday and due to a shopping malfunction at the weekend, I've just had pizza for lunch.

Today is a good day. Friday might be great.

yellow warning :D

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Just to kick off this thread with the hope of a decent mood ensuing.

Here is the MetO view on the short-term. The medium to long-term is very much undecided.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yellow Alert of Snow for South West England :

Bath and North East Somerset, Bournemouth, Bristol, Devon, Dorset, Gloucestershire, North Somerset, Poole, Somerset, South Gloucestershire, Swindon, Torbay & Wiltshire

Valid from: 0900 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2355 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

As the weather breaks down, there is the potential for a spell of snow to spread from the southwest. As winds strengthen, blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of 2-5 cm are possible quite widely and in some locations, especially higher ground, 15 cm are possible.

Issued at: 1233 on Tue 15 Jan 2013

This warning is likely to be updated over the next few days.

http://www.metoffice...Time=1358164860

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Another surprise short-term development ahead of us. biggrin.png

Don't you just love these wintry type synoptics, nothing is EVER set in stone.

post-7183-0-20316900-1358250080_thumb.pn

The end of week development is also yet to develop too.

Soooo pleased I had already seen the latest radar before I saw this teasing little post, gtltw!!!!

4.0C (3.0 with windchill), DP -2.8C, humidity 64%, light breeze from the NW.

Flippin freezin in my conservatory-office. Off to walk the dog in the daylight for once!

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yellow warning biggrin.png

Watch this space...blum.gif

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That warning is soooo close to me grrrrr never mind :-) housework to do!!! (Yay)

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Ok, new thread, new mood!

Lets evaluate the positives

  • The Met Office has issued a severe weather warning for the Southwest
  • We have a battleground situation on our hands come friday which has the potential to deliver biblical amounts of snow
  • We have not seen the 12z yet, which could deliver more good news
  • The EAST would probably kill to be in our position right now
  • Many of us have had unexpected snowfall, why should ths change going forward?

I am no weather man or chart reader, but I think the favourable cards are being dealt to us at the moment. Lets embrace this because what could be potentially around the corner, could be special and something that really does not happen often.

Have faith all!!

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I would also like to add my own viewpoint on the short-term and others are of course allowed to do as such, should they wish.

Please qualify your posts as IMBY, if they are not a generalist view of the current model output. It just saves us mods from having to intervene in any potential nastiness, the like of which often happens in your local school playground or even down your local.

Just a note to all and it does come from experience, SNOW IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST ACCURATELY EVEN AT <T+3 HOURS.

There are many reasons (five or more) why this will be the case and I don't have time to go through them all.

A Channel low or a low coming up from the SW approaches is enough to make over 90% of the UK population jealous, so just feel priveleged that we are talking about this system in the first place.

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Just to kick off this thread with the hope of a decent mood ensuing.

Here is the MetO view on the short-term. The medium to long-term is very much undecided.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yellow Alert of Snow for South West England :

Bath and North East Somerset, Bournemouth, Bristol, Devon, Dorset, Gloucestershire, North Somerset, Poole, Somerset, South Gloucestershire, Swindon, Torbay & Wiltshire

Valid from: 0900 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2355 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

As the weather breaks down, there is the potential for a spell of snow to spread from the southwest. As winds strengthen, blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of 2-5 cm are possible quite widely and in some locations, especially higher ground, 15 cm are possible.

Issued at: 1233 on Tue 15 Jan 2013

This warning is likely to be updated over the next few days.

http://www.metoffice...Time=1358164860

The only thing I would like to point out is if you look at the warning matrix for this event it currently has High impact but low chance of occuring.... I'm not being negative as such I am just stating exactly what is on the warning.

Chilly day today although no ice day as yet. 1.5c

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Afternoon everyone. Certainly some interesting reading in here today!

A beautiful day here in NE Hants. Sunshine and blue skies. Current temp 2C. It's a shame that I am stuck indoors cleaning and sorting out my 10 year old's pit......... er, I mean, bedroom!

I am looking forward to seeing how the week turns out. Each time the met office update my forecast, more snowflakes are added for fri/sat. Currently I have light snow forecast from midday friday until 9pm saturday! However, I am just out of the area covered by the yellow warning, so I'm not counting my chickens yet! I feel very lucky to have woken up to snow yesterday, but would love to have snow at the weekend for the children's benefit!

Crossing my fingers that you guys further west also get lucky!

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Anyone notice how dead the MOD thread is now that the SW/W may get some?

Anyway, I posed this question re: charts,,

This to me looks like the 850's are getting pushed westwards as the PPN moves in from the west?

To me, this looks like either:

- PPn wont reach far inland as the east pushes it way back and slides to the south.

- PPn will reach far inland and snow will continue until its cleared.

Anyway,

It just seemed odd to me that the 850's are getting stronger while the atlantic pushes in..

Discuss.. ( Images wrong way round.. Fist is 15:00 second is 00:00 )

post-182-0-29913200-1358256939_thumb.png

post-182-0-22224700-1358256963_thumb.png

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Another tweet from Ian;

"W COUNTRY Conditions on Fri will be worsened by strengthening winds & significant windchill. Blizzards likely in exposure. Local detail tbc."

"Still long way to go on local detail however. Cautionary broad-brush approach for now by @metoffice."

Sounds like a day to wrap up warm on Friday!

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Another tweet from Ian;

"W COUNTRY Conditions on Fri will be worsened by strengthening winds & significant windchill. Blizzards likely in exposure. Local detail tbc."

"Still long way to go on local detail however. Cautionary broad-brush approach for now by @metoffice."

Sounds like a day to wrap up warm on Friday!

Sorry having a dumb moment, what does broad brush mean???

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Anyone notice how dead the MOD thread is now that the SW/W may get some?

Anyway, I posed this question re: charts,,

This to me looks like the 850's are getting pushed westwards as the PPN moves in from the west?

To me, this looks like either:

- PPn wont reach far inland as the east pushes it way back and slides to the south.

- PPn will reach far inland and snow will continue until its cleared.

Anyway,

It just seemed odd to me that the 850's are getting stronger while the atlantic pushes in..

Discuss.. ( Images wrong way round.. Fist is 15:00 second is 00:00 )

Looks to me like a stalling front making very little progress Eastwards, which was kind of what the GEFS 12z ensembles suggested, although defaulting to zonal by Sunday.

Anybody else?

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Sorry having a dumb moment, what does broad brush mean???

It means its open to change with finer detail left out and is why the lack of confidence on the warning matrix

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Sorry having a dumb moment, what does broad brush mean???

Courtesy of Google.

A broad-brush approach, strategy, or solution deals with a problem in a general way rather than concentrating on details.

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Anyway,

It just seemed odd to me that the 850's are getting stronger while the atlantic pushes in..

Discuss.. ( Images wrong way round.. Fist is 15:00 second is 00:00 )

A real clash coming up if this turned out to be the case. Less cold vs cold head on collision. The cold SE'erly wind could help snow fall with lower uppers. Still marginal for some though and positioning and orientation of the approaching front will be crucial. Oddly enough, the -5c upper temps line always seems to end up over my area in these battelground scenarios all the time!

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Is there any chance of the stalling front being pushed back afterwards to leave us a couple of days with our snow fields?

I'll be happy if we just get a snow event to kick start our winter even if it gets mild for a week before ssw makes a difference. air_kiss.gif

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Another tweet from Ian;

"W COUNTRY Conditions on Fri will be worsened by strengthening winds & significant windchill. Blizzards likely in exposure. Local detail tbc."

"Still long way to go on local detail however. Cautionary broad-brush approach for now by @metoffice."

Sounds like a day to wrap up warm on Friday!

Sounds like i should put the shovel in the boot for the trip south!

plus of course my snow boots.

if we can get past haldon hill then that will be a positive but at the mo it's looking quite dodgy for travelling south from my locality!

Would also agree with Mullenders post though. These warnings can easily be taken down.

Still seems a lot of uncertainty for friday and beyond for the whole of the region covered in this thread.

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Touch and go on the last run, but some would be pleased with this surely?

uksnowrisk.png

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Hmm interesting times ahead....perhaps (if milder air doesnt nip on in) .. and the south east has a warning too for Friday according to Met..

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/?regionName=se

Issued at: 1233 on Tue 15 Jan 2013

Valid from: 0900 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2355 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

As the weather breaks down, there is the potential for a spell of snow to spread from the southwest. As winds strengthen, blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of 2-5 cm are possible quite widely and in some locations, especially higher ground, 15 cm are possible.

The public should be aware of the possibility of travel disruption. This warning is likely to be updated over the next few days.

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