Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.

[Jason M]

Im exactly the same Nick.

Quiet an unusual set up because normally you associate a front moving into the Atlantic bringing milder temps but due to the pivoting front we actually see colder upper temps arrive from the E. Looking at the predicted temps when the front arrives it certainly won't be marginal because widely temps are below freezing and so are the dewpoints (-3C), upper temps across the E at -10C.

Where im dubious is how the front even manages to get to my region. Now history tells me it never makes it this far NE. Looking at the UKMO between +72 & +96 and im unconvinced whats its showing.

So for now I would say Wales, SW, W Midlands have plenty to be excited about but for the rest of us I would hold on a while.

I'd agree with that. History tend to suggest as well that if it does get right over to the east its often a game over situation. Perhaps though this will be the exception :-)

Jason

[That ECM]

GFS showing the cold heading down from the north east is something ECM has been showing on the 12z runs for a couple of days. Great to see the GFS starting to show this. Fits in with what GP has been saying for awhile and although meto do not talk of the direction the longer term out look has this type of feel.

[Tim Bland]

Out into next week and we are under deep snow cover with ice days and sub -10c nights.

Check out the PV. split down the middle with plenty of options for cold from the North and North East coming up.. even if the atlantic tries to break through it will just top up the 15cm.... Off to down a bottle of Kalms and lay down in a dark room!

[bluearmy]

I wonder if deep fi gfs will bring the arctic high towards us. those lower heights are draining away

[Wayneywoo]

I fear this may be lost but a question for someone more knowledgeable, Nick, GP, SteveM, BFTP, TEITS...

If the split chunk of PV stays south of Greenland and we end up with a block over Scandinavia/Iceland, is this a great place to be? I'm thinking the chunk of PV will continually give LP a little extra 'ooomph' as they come at us and slide under the block giving us constant fronts approaching from the SW?

[swfc]

reverse zonality at 300 hrs and pv seg over uk

[BurntFishTrousers]

Not often the Atlantic is pegged back, but looking like it will be this week and beyond.

[randomwalk]

Ian has said the Chief is sticking with the NAE, suggest we look at that.....its completely different to the raw output isn't it?

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Is it possible for the weather models to give a orgasm

[Man With Beard]

Well I thought 850 temps had been on the wane but UKMO sends it pretty cold by Friday, don't think there'll be any rain if this verifies:

[lord stratus]

A stunning run here, GFS dangling the carrot massive here. Funny how little changes amount to so much in the longish run!

We need 2 more days to firm up on this one.

As you say, the carrots being dangled but they are definitely on to something because we are starting to come into the reliable. My prediction has been for a big snow event between 15th and 18th jan so I'm pleased that it looks like its coming right, however my wife will tell me I got completely wrong if it arrives on the 19th! Lol

[danm]

Ian has said the Chief is sticking with the NAE, suggest we look at that.....its completely different to the raw output isn't it?

No, he said the Chief is sticking with the NAE modifications after having seen the GFS and UKMO runs. So discard the NAE - for now.

Edited January 15, 2013 by danm

[saintkiptanui]

Ian has said the Chief is sticking with the NAE, suggest we look at that.....its completely different to the raw output isn't it?

Yeah, seems no-one is mentioning that.

[Ali1977]

Is the latest NAE the cheif looking at still forecasting snow on par with GFS? And as cold? Where do you view this?

[saintkiptanui]

No, he said the Chief is sticking with the NAE modifications after having seen the GFS and UKMO runs. So discard the NAE - for now.

I see. Goody

[Buzz]

No, he said the Chief is sticking with the NAE modifications after having seen the GFS and UKMO runs. So discard the NAE - for now.

Indeed - his two posts a few pages back were:

"However - the potentially errant 12z NAE prog for Thurs is a possible major spoiler and albeit we have it discounted for now..... watch this space. Fri considered 'low probability, severe impact' event currently and we need greater continuity through next 24hrs."

then a little later:

"Chief sticking with his NAE mods Thurs now having seen 12z GM and GFS"

[lord stratus]

Is it possible for the weather models to give a orgasm

Yep and it's not funny when it happens in front of a customer!

[Ali1977]

NAE Mods even!!!

[R.P. McMurphy]

WOW look how cold the 850 temps are that manage to pull back west and undercut the front! Nice

http://www.meteociel...h=72&carte=1007

Northern Ireland could possibly do well out of that too - hope so for them guys. Quality undercut.

[ChartViewer]

GEM T78..Another model backing things further West

Edited January 15, 2013 by ChartViewer

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Yep and it's not funny when it happens in front of a customer!

A Harry met Sally moment.

[Panayiotis]

One thing I think we can say about Fi (+192hrs) is the PV, it doesnt have no structure and doesnt seem to be forming back into its original destination (shown on many runs now) as long as we see/have this, cold prospects will never be far away, once/if this cold spell ends.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Panayiotis

[southbank]

Ian has said the Chief is sticking with the NAE, suggest we look at that.....its completely different to the raw output isn't it?

i read it the other way the chief is sticking with his modification of the NAE as its out on its own , doesnt mean its not onto something , but currently has little support , we wont know really for another 24h

[Supercell 89]

-11c for Central and into southern and eastern areas for sunday morning :o surely this is a glitch where an earth has that come from

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.png

I have a hunch the Atlantic wont get much further than the central belt of the country over the next few days before the renewed blast comes from the north and east. The jet is tracking way to the south of the UK and as many have mentioned the SSW has weakened anything crossing over the Atlantic. Interesting few days ahead

[Mark Bayley]

That has to be one of the snowiest GFS runs for quite a while. Snow events from Friday right till the end of FI as constant bands of precipitation bump into the colder air over the UK, that seems to be refusing to budge. Would be some very impressive totals for many places. With regards to Fridays front i suspect that the best locations will be the ones TETIS outlined. For myself i can only see a weakening band, if that. The GEM's take on Friday, backs the band further west

Edited January 15, 2013 by Mark Bayley