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Somerset Squall

Tropical Cyclone Emang

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Invest 97S formed 16 days ago in the South Indian Ocean. For these 16 days, the rather stubborn invest has persisted through a rather unfavourable environment, never quite reaching TC status. JTWC issued a tropical cyclone formation alert several days ago, before the shear rose again, preventing 97S from becoming a tropical cyclone. At last, this remarkable system has made it, and is now a 35kt tropical cyclone, located in the central South Indian Ocean.

09S is rather small but has some persistant convection over the LLC, and well defined banding over the southern quadrant. The environment ahead for 09S is generally favourable for strengthening, with moderate shear expected to fall to low levels and sea temps warm along track. As 09S is small, it could strengthen quickly. 09S is expected to head southwards over the next few days and then westwards as a blocking ridge forms to the south.

Track from MeteoFrance, which demonstrates nicely the meandering of the cyclone's invest phase:

trajectoire.png

post-1820-0-45210000-1358023190_thumb.jp

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Emang has struggled over the last two days. Intensity remains at 35kts. Shear has plagued the cyclone, preventing it from strengthening, and exposing the LLC to view from time to time. Currently, some convection has refired over the LLC, but the convection is not especially deep nor concentrated. Emang is still expected to eventually strengthen, but not until this shear eases. The cyclone does run the risk of degenerating into a remnant low if the shear rises further. Emang is slowly pushing southwestwards currently, but is expected to turn westwards soon as ridging builds to the south.

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