Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

[Beast of Plympton]

This is so true, on many occasions once the cold air is in place, snow pops up at short notice. I remember a few occasions where this has happened. The good thing about next week is we have some very cold air in the mix, progressively getting colder as we head through the week, we do have milder segments but I'm sure many will see snow at some point.

Lets hope so Chris, perhaps the milder air will set up the battleground!! Im pretty sure we will get something, what, when, where and how is still up for grabs!

[cerneman]

Probably just following the general trend from the more reliable 12z output, across the board and tweaking things where needed. I suggest we all wait for the next upgrade come this late afternoons update.

I think there is too much overanalysis going on in here right now. Look at the trend, not at individual runs, compare like with like.

Here's my post from earlier once again, cerneman, if you missed it.

http://forum.netweat...60#entry2483069

Yes you are right, Don't normally get caught up in following every little nuance in forecasts, Naughty of me , What would we do without your wise guideness [ Can i be teachers pet please]

[Beast of Plympton]

Thanks snowmad

[chris55]

Yes I'm near northleach , do you know where that is? About 700ft Absl .

The bbc showed snow past Bristol if I remeber rightly , as in west of Bristol , we will wait till later .

Yea up towards Bourton/chedworth, you got some consistent elevation there, always hepls. I can remember so may times where Stroud has seen a bit of wet snow/sleet with nothing settling only to walk/drive up the hill and find a winter wonderland.

It would be great to see all elevations see some settling snow though, and certainly a possibility through Sunday evening and beyond.

[Timer]

3.1 C here, wind SE - a very cold rain, with just a touch of iciness mixed in!

Edited January 12, 2013 by Timer

[gottolovethisweather]

Yes you are right, Don't normally get caught up in following every little nuance in forecasts, Naughty of me , What would we do without your wise guideness [ Can i be teachers pet please]

Not so much you, but many of the less experienced members in here should take a step back at times and continue to look at the like for like trend.

I don't want to come across as dictatorial but it is only by experience that you learn, as in most things in life.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[A.J]

knife edge stuff from the 06z output for Monday from an IMBY perspective.....Luckily I have some elevation, and this scenario kind of reminds me of my previous time at Lyneham where it could be raining lower down in Chippenham, yet settling snow on top of Lyneham banks....all in all fascinating radar/sky watching beckons

Just to add, a postive note, last feb (when I was still living near Birmingham) the hi-res outputs were progging front edge snow thn sleet/rain from a similar set up...We got 5 inches of snow that day as the warm sector slid down 20 or so miles to our west keeping us in the colder air all day!

[Bobafet]

Heavy rain on and off on the iow this morning also had a couple of meaty hail showers! Still looking marginal for any white stuff for iow, had a look at the latest met office warnings and iow not included at the moment.

[dancing daisy]

Not so much you, but many of the less experienced members in here should take a step back at times and continue to look at the like for like trend.

I don't want to come across as dictatorial but it is only by experience that you learn, as in most things in life.

Like me, I am confused. But that is a general life thing and not just about snow.

Grey murk here, more rain and generally depressing nonsense, this part of the country really needs a bit of snow to cheer everyone up, or even that golden yellowy orange thing that used to be in the sky circa.2011, I forget what it was called now, but it used to make people wear dark glasses and smile a lot.

[gottolovethisweather]

Ah, the Temperatures are beginning to trend slowly downwards I believe.

Not that I really am expecting much action, today this can only help.

3.0c AT, after a Max of 3.7c @ 6.21am, currently 2.3c DP and a steady Barometer reading of 1009.4mb, with a slowly strengthening Easterly breeze setting up.

[cerneman]

Not so much you, but many of the less experienced members in here should take a step back at times and continue to look at the like for like trend.

I don't want to come across as dictatorial but it is only by experience that you learn, as in most things in life.

Actually you are spot on, No Single weather event happens in total isolation,

[gottolovethisweather]

knife edge stuff from the 06z output for Monday from an IMBY perspective.....Luckily I have some elevation, and this scenario kind of reminds me of my previous time at Lyneham where it could be raining lower down in Chippenham, yet settling snow on top of Lyneham banks....all in all fascinating radar/sky watching beckons

Snow over the north downs looks a certainty in the coming days I reckon, even for today it wouldn't shock me to see some. What we then need in our region is for the snowcover to remain (well it should, once it arrives) and then the knock-on effect will be to modify the air in our neighbourhood. In fact, the same rules pretty much apply for other locations, especially away from the coast.

Darn interesting times and knife-edge stuff all the way through next week.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[MR EXTREMES]

just keep an eye on the air temp and when it falls your know that upper air temps are also dropping which then see what happens might also be good for future reference.

[J10]

Looking at earlier NAE the precipitation for Monday cold be quite intense and that should help snow chances, most of the SW, especially eastern areas look to outside of the "warm" sector, and this also help. As others have said though, would prefer it if the 528dam line was further west.

As I said in Welsh thread, there are going to be a number of chances this week.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Jackone

[MR EXTREMES]

Looking at earlier NAE the precipitation for Monday cold be quite intense and that should help snow chances, most of the SW, especially eastern areas look to outside of the "warm" sector, and this also help. As others have said though, would prefer it if the 528dam line was further west.

As I said in Welsh thread, there are going to be a number of chances this week.

cheers for that jackone nice to see u pop in for a chat.

i do think as the curent system rolls through then were get more idear from the fax charts and as always 528dam line but from the model outputs there seems to be some really deep cold roling around in this coming 5days.

[dec10snow]

3.1 C here, wind SE - a very cold rain, with just a touch of iciness mixed in!

Where??

[Timer]

Where??

Alton, Hampshire - its says so in my signature.

[AWD]

NMM model highlights tomorrow's night event quite well. A band of light snow from late Sunday to Monday morning giving a dusting for many across the West Country.

It also shows Monday's band of PPN turning to sleet across Wales in its final frame.

[suxer]

Just seen Darren Betts news 24 forcast,has us down for 8c after the snow/sleet/rain pushes through. Edit:on monday

Edited January 12, 2013 by suxer

[lynnsim]

Very, very cold rain here all morning. Current temp is 3C, with DP 1.

Metoffice has my part of the world down for rain all day, but I would not be surprised to see it turn sleety later in the day

Meant to also say that we are forecast light snow to rain on Monday, which seems to go against everything that has been said here!

Edited January 12, 2013 by lynnsim

[chris55]

The BBC news channel forecast with Darren Bet showed the warm Sector on Monday well down over Plymouth not really making it any further West as the front comes through, it kind of moved south as the front pushed west.

Overall the graphics suggested a very snowy picture for many.

Firstly Sunday eve/night, then again on Monday, snow on snow is always nice!!!

[Moisty]

I sense that here in North Hampshire we may only see some sleety mess later on today but looks better for Monday - it's true though once cold snowy weather starts it seems snowfall can spring out from nowhere so I dont think anyone should be sure at this stage they WONT get any - except perhaps Cornwall.

Wait 24 hours and anything could happen

[Uncle Gargy]

I'll just convince myself not to expect any snow. Then I might get a pleasant surprise! Better than wishing for snow and for it to be just rain. We don't want to scare it away!

[BristolBaggie]

We should not get to down in the west about Sunday/Monday snow chances still time for things to change in our favour. It's going down to the wire, any further adjustments west then BINGO. Unlike rain snow is much harder to predict and things do and probably will change within a few hours of its arrival

[katemart]

Reports of snow flurries in Kent (on the SE fred) and in Wokingham on #uksnowmap (but only one bloke).

I agree that the Easterly is - slowly - starting to have an effect. Currently 4.5C and falling, DP 4.1C and falling, Humidity 97% and falling, Pressure 1009 mb and falling, Wind Easterly, 3 bft.

The pivoting of the rainbands, and their consequent bunching up over the South coast, on the radar is quite marked.

Edited January 12, 2013 by katemart