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Jane Louise

Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

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New thread here folks and please keep on topic as much as possible. Thanks and good luck.drunk.gif

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Fax Chart for Monday midday. Really is knife edge! Iceburg can it actually Snow opost-12836-0-43001200-1357978312_thumb.ppost-12836-0-43001200-1357978312_thumb.pn the West side of the 528 by even 30 miles

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Fax Chart for Monday midday. Really is knife edge! Iceburg can it actually Snow opost-12836-0-43001200-1357978312_thumb.ppost-12836-0-43001200-1357978312_thumb.pn the West side of the 528 by even 30 miles

Mmmmm...... 528DAM has been pushed slightly further east compared to last nights.

Looks like Bristol/North Somerset is currently the boundary line.

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Mmmmm...... 528DAM has been pushed slightly further east compared to last nights.

Looks like Bristol/North Somerset is currently the boundary line.

If that's the case come Monday, think i'll pop over the severn bridge for some snow haha! been looking forward to snow all week now it looks like chances for Cardiff are maybe 30/40%, oh well i'll just measure how deep the rain:)

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This came out at 6am. Would this of included the UKMO runs? There is hardly anything init really. 10 mile further west will do

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FAX charts;

The first occlusion is shown to pass over the West Country Sunday night;

post-12721-0-22459000-1357978848_thumb.j

This would bring light snow to most of the West Country away from coastal areas.

The second occlusion comes down on Monday;

post-12721-0-43838700-1357978908_thumb.j

This pushes the cold air back east a bit, as shown my the movement of the 528DAM line. This would bring possible snowfall to Gloucestershire, Cotswolds, Wiltshire and Hampshire as well as elevated ground such as the Mendips. Areas further SW would see more in the way of rain.

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This came out at 6am. Would this of included the UKMO runs? There is hardly anything init really. 10 mile further west will do

It will probably change for better or worse........

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Personally I would take the snow line to the west of the 528 line.

We have a shrinking warm sector, ie cold air before and after, warm air is forced over the cold air at the front and cold air forced under the warm air from the back as the warm air rises, cold air sinks, warm air is mixed out and the warm sector gets smaller and le intense. The prices then creates the precip and instability.

However is will mean tht the colder air will hang around more near the surface with the mixing out of the warm air probably occurring at 850-500 levels.

So to cut short 1000-500 thicknesses might be margin but still give snow to the surface.

Sub 528 very very likely snow, 528 or just above marginal depending on evapo cooling, mixing of layers etc.

Meto forecast on my phone ha updated and now shows snow for me around 6 hrs Sunday night Monday morning.

Sorry on my phone re typing

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Personally I would take the snow line to the west of the 528 line.

We have a shrinking warm sector, ie cold air before and after, warm air is forced over the cold air at the front and cold air forced under the warm air from the back as the warm air rises, cold air sinks, warm air is mixed out and the warm sector gets smaller and le intense. The prices then creates the precip and instability.

However is will mean tht the colder air will hang around more near the surface with the mixing out of the warm air probably occurring at 850-500 levels.

So to cut short 1000-500 thicknesses might be margin but still give snow to the surface.

Sub 528 very very likely snow, 528 or just above marginal depending on evapo cooling, mixing of layers etc.

Meto forecast on my phone ha updated and now shows snow for me around 6 hrs Sunday night Monday morning.

Sorry on my phone re typing

Hi Mate, appreciate the time you take to give us information on here - would i be too far west in Cardiff ? hoping for a westwards shift nearer the time!

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Morning all,

A weather update from north west Oxfordshire (Cotswolds) 210 masl, its 2.1 deg with light rain.

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Jay right on the boarder tbh, you'll get snow IMHO the question is whether you get a few hrs of warm sector, if I had to plump I would say that you will get a few hrs of sleet or snizzle.

Cheers

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If anyone has netweather extra turn on the social radar. quite a few snow reports around Brum even one in Bath!

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ECM 850 humidity I.e precip shows well for t48. A nice band all in -5 850 temps moving down the sw. Similar to nae but looks more intense., by t72 the backend front has swooped down past us.

post-6326-0-77196300-1357980215_thumb.jp

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If anyone has netweather extra turn on the social radar. quite a few snow reports around Brum even one in Bath!

Two different bands. The one in the Midlands is being undercut by colder air and turning to sleet & snow. The one over the West Country is all rain. When the band over the Midlands heads S/SE, we might see some wintriness before it clears.

post-12721-0-50729500-1357980515_thumb.jpost-12721-0-15251700-1357980522_thumb.j

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Thanks AWD really appreciate your input on here. Got everything crossed for snow Sun into Mon. Just hope we all get some.

Currently 3.5 deg and falling.

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Morning everyone, so things still not looking hugely rosy this morning for the west of our region. Still a way to go (model wise) til T0. Still all to play for. Keeping my fingers crossed for everyone.

5.7c here currently. No sign of is falling yet, but the cold is still way away I guess. Im a bit concerned as to IF we get snow, how long it'll stick as the ground is so wet.

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NAE has got a worrying eastward trend about it lately. Remember yesterday I posted the thickness' chart for midday Sunday and it had the 522DAM over Bath, well now it hardly makes the east coast and we are just about in the 528DAM;

post-12721-0-94953200-1357981111_thumb.j

And further east by tomorrow evening;

post-12721-0-16763500-1357981388_thumb.j

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If anyone has netweather extra turn on the social radar. quite a few snow reports around Brum even one in Bath!

Yep, snow in Brum, Coventry, Dudley this morning:http://uksnowmap.com/#/

Filthy here in Southampton but wasn't woken by the thunder. Are you sure it wasn't my and my old man's combined snoring? lazy.gif

Wind due East, temp 5.3C, 1010mb, db 4.9C, humidity 97%

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Nowcast for Princetown 4.6c and rain. B.O.R.I.N.G

Torpoint fog grey and wet :-(

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2.9c AT, 2.5C DP, 1009.2MB Barometer trend steady.

4.8mm rainfall since midnight.

Some decent bands of precipitation coming through our region on the radar right now. Closest one to me is only producing rain and lies slightly to my Southwest, stretching through IOW, Winchester curling Northwest to Bristol area. Further North of this, by say 80 miles or so, there is a band of precipation North of Oxford, curling Northwest through parts of the Midlands, this is producing rain, sleet and wet snow. Yet more bands exist over parts of the Isles of Scilly and parts of Devon and Cornwall. I am assuming is where the surface feature currently lies.

Keep listening for reports from the band of precipitation over Central parts, as it will readily turn to snow as the day progresses and eventually sink Southwards with the colder Air.

On another note, many Thanks for the continuing analysis, however, can you guys please always qualify which dates you are talking about in each case. good.gif There are clearly so many chances of the frozen white stuff in the days to come, I find it easy to get lost amongst these fantastic interpretations.

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Morning everyone, so things still not looking hugely rosy this morning for the west of our region. Still a way to go (model wise) til T0. Still all to play for. Keeping my fingers crossed for everyone.

5.7c here currently. No sign of is falling yet, but the cold is still way away I guess. Im a bit concerned as to IF we get snow, how long it'll stick as the ground is so wet.

Why are people obsessed with the ground being wet?? If it is cold enough snow will settle.......

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