Scotland Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

[doctormog]

Arrrgggh, the NAE12z essentially shows rain here throughout the entire forecast period! If it turns out to be accurate it will be great for most other areas and awful for Aberdeen.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Arrrgggh, the NAE12z essentially shows rain here throughout the entire forecast period! If it turns out to be accurate it will be great for most other areas and awful for Aberdeen.

I think it's entirely down to the localised southeasterly flow bringing in slightly moister air:

Everything else looks fine to be honest.

[doctormog]

I think it's entirely down to the localised southeasterly flow bringing in slightly moister air:

Everything else looks fine to be honest.

Yes, it's a shame and for this reason I hate SEly winds. In summer they bring haar and in winter cool, grey damp nothingness.

[LomondSnowstorm]

my mate stays there u might know her seen as its only a wee place her names claire morgan

I'm not sure but I don't think I know her, she's maybe at the other end of the village from us.

Yes, it's a shame and for this reason I hate SEly winds. In summer they bring haar and in winter cool, grey damp nothingness.

Agreed, today is a case in point here at least, just grey and 4C all day.

[cragonmore]

Yes, it's a shame and for this reason I hate SEly winds. In summer they bring haar and in winter cool, grey damp nothingness.

Never mind Michael if we get phase 2 of the cold spell reload later in month and if it swings NNE as was being predicted you will be grinning all the way to February.

[doctormog]

Aye maybe, that's a big "if" though.

I see that the Met Office Scottish regional forecasts are a lot less bullish on the snow front this afternoon too, with phrases along the lines of "Rain and sleet with snow, mainly higher ground" for most tomorrow and " further sleet and snow on Monday and Tuesday".

[LomondSnowstorm]

GFS gives a big dumping to the west coast tomorrow morning!

Actually, having looked at the NAE it's not all that different, other than GFS looks more intense:

[Allyw12]

By midnight, temperatures still between 0C and 2C everywhere.

This is exactly the upgrade we needed, it wasn't huge but it's just enough for what would be a big snowfall for the east coast.

Interestingly this is also an upgrade for everywhere else since the front is more active and would give significant snowfall to all of England and even into Wales too now. The warning is bound to be put back on for tomorrow's snow if this is still present in the 18Zs.

Even Perth still under the pink, no ramping yet but step in the right direction thanks LS

[Highland Snow]

I am not paranoid (yet) or at least I don't think I'm paranoid - would someone please confirm I am not paranoid - but the verification/non-verification of these Models is beginning to play on the delicate balance of my mind (in reality, two brain cells)!

[LomondSnowstorm]

GFS isn't substantively all that different - doesn't quite take the initial front as far east or with as much precipitation, very slightly higher uppers but the main difference is that the second front sweeps in from the northwest and looks more potent, giving mostly rain to the southwest but snowfall for the same area as on the NAE. Either would be quite snowy but I think the NAE is probably better.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Well, this is very nice.

[Allyw12]

Well, this is very nice.

Is this the "undercut" chart?

[applemint]

But the big snow blizzards happened yesterday if you believe today's Daily Express:

Not seen the apology yet from the daily express for printing a dishonest picture of snow in Cumbria pic.twitter.com/msc3Dd1N

— dailyexpresslol (@dailyexpresslol)

January 12, 2013

Some tabloid newspaper headlines about snow are amusing. 'Worst freeze for 20 years'. They've forgotten Dec 2010 - coldest Dec in 100yrs.

— Liam Dutton (@liamdutton)

January 12, 2013

http://expressweather.tumblr.com/

I guess alarming headlines means they sell more copies to their elderly readers.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Is this the "undercut" chart?

Not quite yet, this is just the shortwave sinking south with an easterly in behind. If it's going to undercut it'll be around +96-+120

[M1245]

From the latest gfs chart, the east coast seems to get sleet while the heavy snow stays inland.

[howham]

Temp still 2.0C but DP fallen to -1.3C. Still wet snow on and off but too wet to settle so far.

[Cheggers]

Just in and catching up. Lots of debate will it won't it, how much, where.... Just sit back and man the radars and lamp posts.

As a side note, those with kids.... Scotland Street School Museum.

[applemint]

This is from the MWIS :

Planning Outlook: All mountain areas of Britain from Monday, 14th January, 2013

Very likely persistently cold and substantially dry over the coming week to ten days.

Nevertheless, there will be patches of snow or snow showers occasionally. However, there remains uncertainty as to

whether persistent snowfall will occasionally edge in from the west (possibly followed by a temporary thaw of the frozen

terrain, at least at low levels on some western hills). Winds often light.

http://www.mwis.org.uk/areas.php

Edited January 12, 2013 by applemint

[over_the_rainbow]

Just in and catching up. Lots of debate will it won't it, how much, where.... Just sit back and man the radars and lamp posts.

As a side note, those with kids.... Scotland Street School Museum.

Is it good? Haven't been before.

[LomondSnowstorm]

This is the undercut:

An even better one:

UKMO good also, would be quite a lot of snow for the east up to this point where it slackens:

The cold spell just keeps on getting longer...

[Snooz]

Arrrgggh, the NAE12z essentially shows rain here throughout the entire forecast period! If it turns out to be accurate it will be great for most other areas and awful for Aberdeen.

Michael I often find that the NAE at this scale does not get the pink/blue line quite right.. if they could draw a line along the Tyrebagger or through Northfield it would be a closer match.. and sometimes that line needs to fall on either side of IMBY, i.e TyreBagger or Glenns of Foundland - I've seen the usual Aberdeen/Peterhead tips in blue and them getting plenty snow.. so in short I never really pay much attention to the actual color split when it gets this close.. just sign in here, listen to LS and other nowcasts..

I don't think the first front will reach us even here in Kemnay, nothing scientific, just a feeling between temps, mountain shadow and the "downgrade" (which thanks to LS I think is an actually a "no pain no gain" upgrade for next week!) - if it does then so be it

If we now believe the charts for Mon/Tue then Aberdeen will catch up.. keep the faith!

Temp still 2.0C but DP fallen to -1.3C. Still wet snow on and off but too wet to settle so far.

We had very little more in the way of sleet/snow since I posted this morning, and our temp/DP had now risen back to early doors type 2.2C/1.8C though I see DP has just fallen rather rapidly to 1.1C in last half hour

BUT even more disappointingly.. I was relying on the snow not quite reaching here until later tomorrow so we could get our Footie played and have just found out footie is off again but this time we get a bye other team's fault, Aberdeen City have called off all games on their City pitches AGAIN so it was waiting in vain.... so now on full snow watch with no reason to hold back anymore (have already written off next Sunday as we will be snowed in by then surely!! LOL)

Edited January 12, 2013 by Snooz

[A Winter's Tale]

Just come back from a chilly Lochgoilhead - where there was a light covering of snow below 2000ft on the hills. I've heard that there have been some downgrades regarding the snow here in Scotland but I'll trudge my way through the charts and forecasts. Certainly, I'm expecting some parts of Scotland to get a good dumping and just glancing at the GFS 12z, it looks decent for the duration for cold conditions next week and possible snow in a easterly flow.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The NAE is getting slated in the MT for not showing snow for the south of England

[Buriedundersnow]

i personally think this event tonight will be snow for everyone i remember back in december when that front came in from the west and turned to snow as it ran into the cold air and for the 24hrs before hand the bbc weather were saying the whole time without changing that in my location at sea level that it was only going to fall as sleet at first then turning to rain and they got it totally wrong and it stayed falling as snow from start to finish.

there is always a tendancy for events like this to be underplayed on forecasts and such as they dont want to say look out definate snow for everyone incase it doesnt work out that way and i remember a good few times in the past where frontal snow events have been underplayed.

[Buriedundersnow]

wow we got our locations back at last