Scotland Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

[Isolated Frost]

Monday looks touch and go, but if you have pretty much any notable elevation (100m+) it should be all snow. The NAE/NMM going for mostly snow though so that's the most reliable for me.

After that, a very cold NE/ENE flow develops for Tuesday.. that's what you want to check out.

[BleakMidwinter]

Monday looks touch and go, but if you have pretty much any notable elevation (100m+) it should be all snow.

100m+ ... oh dear and here's me at 96m ASL!

Fingers crossed for everyone, and I've got the iron heating ready to iron out cross-chart disagreements and get those ensembles nice and straight...

It is a bit funny though - it's January in Scotland and the BBC are tlaking in slightly awed tones on R4 just now about extreme cold as low as maybe minus six in rural areas!

Have we all forgotten what to do with winter?

[Hairy Celt]

Freezing with freezing (obviously) fog this morning, lifting occasionally to tease us with sunshine but not looking good really. Mebbe a weird sunset later? Apologies for the somewhat crude message last night Lorenzo, alcohol & the internet will be my downfall...

[LomondSnowstorm]

Monday looks touch and go, but if you have pretty much any notable elevation (100m+) it should be all snow. The NAE/NMM going for mostly snow though so that's the most reliable for me.

After that, a very cold NE/ENE flow develops for Tuesday.. that's what you want to check out.

Haha, I just posted in your regional thread about the marginality on Monday! Yes, Tuesday and Wednesday could be interesting, hopefully they remain at the current progged intensity as it looks very good for the usual spots.

[Hawesy]

Good post as usual LS but you can understand people's disappointment as things have gradually been downgraded for this weekend. What were -10 850s and sub 520 thicknesses a few days ago are now coming in at -7/-8c 850s and 524 dam (here). It's 4.4c and drizzly outside.

For IMBY I'm now looking at Tue which at the moment (according to GFS) gives us -9c 850s and 518 dam. With light winds and little surface mixing that could potentially translate to snowfall even here but the key will be no downgrade as the time approaches.

Still all to play for though, and one thing about living where I do, you get to be patient when it comes to a snowfall (2 years and counting!).

[Hairy Celt]

100m+ ... oh dear and here's me at 96m ASL!

Fingers crossed for everyone, and I've got the iron heating ready to iron out cross-chart disagreements and get those ensembles nice and straight...

It is a bit funny though - it's January in Scotland and the BBC are tlaking in slightly awed tones on R4 just now about extreme cold as low as maybe minus six in rural areas!

Have we all forgotten what to do with winter?

It's the effect of ubiquitous central heating & over-heated cars & public transport. I had the displeasure of a bus ride yesterday and I haven't been in such a hot & polluted atmosphere since doing a sewer investigation near Stevenage about 25 years ago.

[cragonmore]

Frequent heavy showers of icy rain, sleet and hail here in Angus, oddly heavier than radar showing for here just now. With all the chopping and changing in meto warnings for tomorrow I'm now not so sure I will get snow rather than a continuation of sleety icy rain. I'm around 12 miles inland but only about 70 ASL. No matter it's still exciting watching and waiting :-)

[Penicuikblizzard]

A big downgrade at the last minute what going on? I don't think the Met Office are 100% certain yet!! Hopefully some snow in Penicuik over the next few days think it's a good bet!!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

100m+ ... oh dear and here's me at 96m ASL!

Just go upstairs.

Failing that, a ladder onto the roof.

Edited January 12, 2013 by scottish skier

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

End of the morns ECM quite an outlier

Edited January 12, 2013 by scottish skier

[Isolated Frost]

Unless you live at the far SW of Scotland, or is VERY VERY unlucky, you will see snow on Monday.

Here is the NMM snapshot for the first band tomorrow evening, this for 1600:

And then the NMM snapshot for rush hour Monday:

Now these are two in the space of 12 hours- note:

The first one has rapidly warming upper air temps- a large snow to rain event.. unless you have serious height (150m+) or the band progresses very quickly, the snow accu would generally be over the southern uplands, the grampians and the fife hills + off course the highlands

The second one is rapidly cooling - the mild sector diminishes quickly and cold upper air from the NW moves in.. this should begin as rain for those below 300m, then becoming 200m, then possibly 100m.. the snow should fall for most in the SE of Scotland or the high ground in central parts- Kelso the hot spot for me

Snow should be transient however- but in the afternoon, it will be a east-west split, don't be surprised about heavy snow in Edinburgh and heavy rain in Glasgow..

[M1245]

Unless you live at the far SW of Scotland, or is VERY VERY unlucky, you will see snow on Monday.

Here is the NMM snapshot for the first band tomorrow evening, this for 1600:

And then the NMM snapshot for rush hour Monday:

Now these are two in the space of 12 hours- note:

The first one has rapidly warming upper air temps- a large snow to rain event.. unless you have serious height (150m+) or the band progresses very quickly, the snow accu would generally be over the southern uplands, the grampians and the fife hills + off course the highlands

The second one is rapidly cooling - the mild sector diminishes quickly and cold upper air from the NW moves in.. this should begin as rain for those below 300m, then becoming 200m, then possibly 100m.. the snow should fall for most in the SE of Scotland or the high ground in central parts- Kelso the hot spot for me

Snow should be transient however- but in the afternoon, it will be a east-west split, don't be surprised about heavy snow in Edinburgh and heavy rain in Glasgow..

With these charts, what is the likeliness of snow in Fife over the weekend and into Monday/Tuesday?

[Isolated Frost]

With these charts, what is the likeliness of snow in Fife over the weekend and into Monday/Tuesday?

Depends on elevation. Not much snow to come today I'd think- with very little convection.

Sunday wise- maybe some brief snow in the evening, could be very wet or sleety near sea level

Monday- looks 50-50 atm but if Scotland does receive snow at lower levels, Fife will be in a good position for it

And then atm Tuesday and Wednesday look pretty (snow) showery for the E of Scotland, but there is a lot of changes to be expected between now and then.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Good post as usual LS but you can understand people's disappointment as things have gradually been downgraded for this weekend. What were -10 850s and sub 520 thicknesses a few days ago are now coming in at -7/-8c 850s and 524 dam (here). It's 4.4c and drizzly outside.

For IMBY I'm now looking at Tue which at the moment (according to GFS) gives us -9c 850s and 518 dam. With light winds and little surface mixing that could potentially translate to snowfall even here but the key will be no downgrade as the time approaches.

Still all to play for though, and one thing about living where I do, you get to be patient when it comes to a snowfall (2 years and counting!).

Yes, I'm a bit disappointed myself I must admit, but just a few days ago it looked like it might be back to mild by late Monday anyway, so I'm just happy we've got this far with it. My hope is that we'll see the energy going under the jet by the middle of next week and that would effectively prop up the easterly and keep the coldest uppers in situ.

[Hairy Celt]

Just go upstairs.

Failing that, a ladder onto the roof.

You're on thin ice there, SS, with both those suggestions!

[sn0wman]

So, what was looking like a decent and not too marginal event for lowland Scotland tomorrow, is now a mostly high ground event with no accumulations at low levels. Suppose there will be a lot more opportunities over the coming week, but this Winter seems to have had a lot of these 'nearly' events. Mind you, if it changed so quickly in favour of sleet / rain, then maybe it could change back to favour snow.

[Snowplough33]

Where is best to view our uppers and wind direction for Tuesday and Wednesday ?

Had a little shower with some hail mixed in

Edited January 12, 2013 by Snowplough33

[cragonmore]

So, what was looking like a decent and not too marginal event for lowland Scotland tomorrow, is now a mostly high ground event with no accumulations at low levels. Suppose there will be a lot more opportunities over the coming week, but this Winter seems to have had a lot of these 'nearly' events. Mind you, if it changed so quickly in favour of sleet / rain, then maybe it could change back to favour snow.

As I don't understand the science of what's just happened in last 24 hours that has taken us from expecting 2 days plus of good snowfall to a couple of days of sleety rain, I can but hope its so marginal that we still have one last wee window of opportunity for it to shift the right way (back). Perhaps LS can help give a feel for what to watch for in 12z runs today into tonight or are we pretty nailed onto sleety prospects through to Monday. (Still hopeful for Tuesday onwards as probably FI territory so could go any way)

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Unless you live at the far SW of Scotland, or is VERY VERY unlucky, you will see snow on Monday.

Here is the NMM snapshot for the first band tomorrow evening, this for 1600:

And then the NMM snapshot for rush hour Monday:

Now these are two in the space of 12 hours- note:

The first one has rapidly warming upper air temps- a large snow to rain event.. unless you have serious height (150m+) or the band progresses very quickly, the snow accu would generally be over the southern uplands, the grampians and the fife hills + off course the highlands

The second one is rapidly cooling - the mild sector diminishes quickly and cold upper air from the NW moves in.. this should begin as rain for those below 300m, then becoming 200m, then possibly 100m.. the snow should fall for most in the SE of Scotland or the high ground in central parts- Kelso the hot spot for me

Snow should be transient however- but in the afternoon, it will be a east-west split, don't be surprised about heavy snow in Edinburgh and heavy rain in Glasgow..

Ho hum.

[over_the_rainbow]

Aww what! Been out and this is what I come back to. I refuse to TOORP, however I will be a sulky madam in silence.

[Highland Snow]

Well Today is a downdrade in verification as far as Thursday's Charts were concerned so I will be taking all predictions for the next week with a large pinch of salt!

[Buriedundersnow]

we havent got it that bad people there still looks to be snow moving through on the first front and from looking at the latest bbc forecast we have less to worry about than they have down south there snowfest they have all been going on about in the model thread the past few days looks to be turning into a wimper as the first front is to decay as it moves south and the second front is more likely to be rain my the time it gets there so we are still looking better than most in the uk

[Big Innes Madori]

Ah see a lot of downgrade talk in here in the last couple of hours!

however, I have just watched a very snawy forecast by Darren Bett oan the BBC News Channel ?

Big Innes

[LomondSnowstorm]

As I don't understand the science of what's just happened in last 24 hours that has taken us from expecting 2 days plus of good snowfall to a couple of days of sleety rain, I can but hope its so marginal that we still have one last wee window of opportunity for it to shift the right way (back). Perhaps LS can help give a feel for what to watch for in 12z runs today into tonight or are we pretty nailed onto sleety prospects through to Monday. (Still hopeful for Tuesday onwards as probably FI territory so could go any way)

No nails yet, things to watch out for are 950hpa temperatures (sub zero means snow) and as IF says there is a pattern to this: if we can get the 950s back below 0C before the second band hits then things will still be looking good for Monday, and behind that front things will start to gradually look colder again.

[Buriedundersnow]

does anyone know the latest verification stats for the models