South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 9th 2013>

[BarnetBlizzard]

If it snows for 3 weeks you will be skiing here, it will be the only way to get around !

I live on a hill and every year that it snows, no word of a lie, my neighbour whips the skis out and goes skiing down the road.

[Katiewombat]

Heavy frost here tonight. Good start :-)

Katie

[abruzzi spur]

Erm, everything seems to have disappeared from the left sidebars. Am I missing summat here guys?

Hi K, I think it is to save bandwith at busy times

[Jan_Bromley]

Lol @Sarah

[abruzzi spur]

If it snows for 3 weeks you will be skiing here, it will be the only way to get around !

In December 2010 after the snow froze I travelled around Reigate wearing my crampons and trying not to step on the dog!

Got a few funny looks from neighbourhood watch when I got out the ice axe though...

Edited January 9, 2013 by abruzzi spur

[Paul Sherman]

Well people that Pub Run was probably one of the most laughable I have ever seen, Nick S Says it is almost a carbon copy of the 06z which was totally thrown in the bin by NOAA Regarding it's pattern across North America which will have a subsequent impact on us further down the line.

I know you should not discount a model but if it's Shortwaves cant even follow the Jet Profile in the first place then it cant be right!

Put it this way when we chase Tornadic Systems across the Plains, the Low will come through the Rockies in the 4 corners region, crossing into New Mexico and Colorado and then out into the Kansas Plains following a 80kt Jet Streak, it would NOT Go north or South and displace itself from the Jet on a holiday to Canada or Mexico!

The shortwave on the GFS Seems to have a love in with Svalbard!

GFS Seriously losing credibility with me!

[john pike]

saturday daytime

very very messy

low pressure coming in from the west heading

heading east-south east direction

wind direction starts as south east direction

colder air covering most except the very far south east but on its way

thinking starting as heavy rain around late morning ( have a feeling the odd rumble of thunder first of all due to unstable air)

as the low moves across in the late afternoon the cold air should have caught this up winds easterly and cold

should lead to a period of snow late evening early morning

[sarah7meme]

Was December 2010 when snow hung around for weeks?

[john pike]

sunday at present looks dry

(subject to change)

very cold and strong easterly wind

528dam air over the uk

close to freezing all day

[Jayces]

Funny if the GFS turns out to be right and all the other models backtrack over the next day :-)

Well okay, not funny if you want feet of snow (like me) but funny for the papers.

[abruzzi spur]

Was December 2010 when snow hung around for weeks?

Sarah, here you go:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/uk_reviews/newsid_9344000/9344883.stm

[Guest archiesmummy]

Should we be worried about the GFS?

[Keraunic]

Hi K, I think it is to save bandwith at busy times

Ah, right. Cheers AS.

[john pike]

monday

still under very cold 528 dam air

variable wind of north easterly-north westerly

temps around 1-2 degrees

starts dry but look west

that has undercut written all over it heavy snow monday afternoon?

need more runs but nice

also look to our north west -blocking

also look at that lovely big block of cold air getting closer from our east

Should we be worried about the GFS?

no

[Jayces]

Should we be worried about the GFS?

We should always be cautious when there isn't cross model agreement, ie the major (and to a degree the minor) models don't all show the same outlook.

At the moment I believe there is cross model agreement out to Sunday, after that it can go one of 2 ways though it's only the GFS and JMA that are showing the mild option, everybody else is showing snowmageddon.

John disagrees but December is still on my mind and a few years of model watching has shown this scenario time and time again where one model picks something up and the others follow.

Granted at the moment the GFS is on it's own pretty much but it's happened before and it can happen again :-(

Personally i'd say enjoy the snowy weekend potential and worry about next week on Sunday night;:-)

Edited January 9, 2013 by Jayces

[Amanzi]

sunday at present looks dry

(subject to change)

John, would that strong flow not trigger showers, or hope above hopes a streamer?

very cold and strong easterly wind

528dam air over the uk

close to freezing all day

Am having an awful time trying to post from my phone.

John would thst strong flow not trigger showers or hope above all hopes a streamer?

Edited January 9, 2013 by Amanzi

[john pike]

hi guys

please read my fax updates for sturday sunday and monday

gfs after 120 is as reliable as my job at present

[Great Plum]

I was going to post this in the infant (sorry - model) thread...

ECM, UKMO, ECM ensembles, ECM 32 dayer, ECM seasonal model, GEM, the met, the fax charts the GFS ensemble mean, the Russian, Chinese and Brazilian models - even the NOGAPS v GFS - I'm not worried... Cold weather will come!

[JennyJane1]

i have lots of tinned soup and hot chocolate.

If it turns into the day after tomorrow, i'll survive.

i think.

[Icebox]

Well people that Pub Run was probably one of the most laughable I have ever seen, Nick S Says it is almost a carbon copy of the 06z which was totally thrown in the bin by NOAA Regarding it's pattern across North America which will have a subsequent impact on us further down the line.

I know you should not discount a model but if it's Shortwaves cant even follow the Jet Profile in the first place then it cant be right!

Put it this way when we chase Tornadic Systems across the Plains, the Low will come through the Rockies in the 4 corners region, crossing into New Mexico and Colorado and then out into the Kansas Plains following a 80kt Jet Streak, it would NOT Go north or South and displace itself from the Jet on a holiday to Canada or Mexico!

The shortwave on the GFS Seems to have a love in with Svalbard!

GFS Seriously losing credibility with me!

I'm with you Paul it just doesn't seen plausable, the GFS is now trying to re-write the laws of weather physics........ if there is such a thing.

[Guest archiesmummy]

Thanks guys, doing lots of reading and do think the GFS is going to turn around but I just had a lapse, forgive me, I am weak!

[yamkin]

We should always be cautious when there isn't cross model agreement, ie the major (and to a degree the minor) models don't all show the same outlook.

At the moment I believe there is cross model agreement out to Sunday, after that it can go one of 2 ways though it's only the GFS and JMA that are showing the mild option, everybody else is showing snowmageddon.

John disagrees but December is still on my mind and a few years of model watching has shown this scenario time and time again where one model picks something up and the others follow.

Granted at the moment the GFS is on it's own pretty much but it's happened before and it can happen again :-(

Personally i'd say enjoy the snowy weekend potential and worry about next week on Sunday night;:-)

Don't forget that in Dec 2012, ECM downgraded the potential beast form the east whilst GFS kept the beast from the east on track until it back tracked and followed ECM...................Expect GFS to back track to the ECM's colder theme

[blackprince]

i have lots of tinned soup and hot chocolate.

If it turns into the day after tomorrow, i'll survive.

i think.

The day after tomorrow you will know if its happening

[john pike]

Am having an awful time trying to post from my phone.

John would thst strong flow not trigger showers or hope above all hopes a streamer?

hi amanzi

the reason i have said dry but subject to change is for that reason

there is a trough way to our east

if that got wrapped up in the flow and picked up moisture from our snow making north sea machine

then bingo

[Jayces]

Aye Yamkin that is true but at the same time weren't we all yesterday willing all the models to follow the GFS and show a cold snowmageddon which they promptly did?

I seriously hope that it is wrong but there is that tiny seed of doubt.

Gonna stay around for the ensembles and then bed I think and see what tomorrow brings.