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Jane Louise

Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 9th January 2013>

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I don't think Saturday is the day to expect settling snow. That's the transitory period for us from cool to cold.

Sunday some places could see a dusting before the front clears.

The troublesome snowfall could, and I emphasise could, be Monday, as Ian said in his forecast, subject to further model runs off course.

Saturday - Rain turning to snow, little settling

Sunday - Early light snow clearing, giving a dusting in places before it does

Monday - POSSIBLE more significant wintry weather

Like BB said though, this weekend had been slowly upgrading over the last few days, so who knows!

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I think we could get some sort of snowfall on the back edge of that system moving south on Saturday night.going to be very cold on the back edge

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18z to start rolling. The shortwaves will be there again around southern Greenland, but how will they behave?

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this posted my Ian F in the MOD

Raw UKMO-GM snow accumulations for southern areas (just received) later Sat overnight into Sunday approximate 1-5cm (3-5cm for example Chilterns, Downs etc). We're not sure how much will settle, however, especially at lower levels. Stronger snow signal now in latest run, i.e., consistent with 00z GM too.

fromey

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this posted my Ian F in the MOD

Raw UKMO-GM snow accumulations for southern areas (just received) later Sat overnight into Sunday approximate 1-5cm (3-5cm for example Chilterns, Downs etc). We're not sure how much will settle, however, especially at lower levels. Stronger snow signal now in latest run, i.e., consistent with 00z GM too.

fromey

Beat me to it!

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I think the majority of places will wake up to damp conditions Sunday morning with snow on the hills around.

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So those of us right on the coast will be hoping that the low tracks further south than progged, right? I don't think I could bear it if we got nothing but rain (with all due to respect to those people who have experienced flooding). Still, if it's safe to do so I might go for a little trip out to the Downs to give the the dog a treat. She's a husky cross and all her winter coat has now blown so she may not be so happy about it as usual!

Fromey, I really hope everybody is sensible over the upcoming period and that the Met Office are able to get some warnings out so that people don't get caught out. Hats off to all the brilliant people in the NHS who have to keep working when the rest of us go out to play drinks.gifair_kiss.gif

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this posted my Ian F in the MOD

Raw UKMO-GM snow accumulations for southern areas (just received) later Sat overnight into Sunday approximate 1-5cm (3-5cm for example Chilterns, Downs etc). We're not sure how much will settle, however, especially at lower levels. Stronger snow signal now in latest run, i.e., consistent with 00z GM too.

fromey

I'll take that. Nothing major but the best so far this winter, and also a consistent signal for more snowfall into new working week.

Looking forward to seeing a bit of winter finally.

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i think when it comes to sat/sun it will be down to now casting, the front could be further north or south the colder air might get here sooner or not.

as always this thread will be invaluable for this.

fromey

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Hey all,

New to Netweather and have been watching the models and comments with great interest, not that I understand them much!

I live in Princetown, Devon, in the middle of Dartmoor.

What are peoples thoughts on extent of snow here over the weekend/next week?

Thanks in advance

Ian

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I think the majority of places will wake up to damp conditions Sunday morning with snow on the hills around.

Depressing isn't it! I have actually dreamed of getting up in the night and looking out into thickly falling snow and then woken up and looked out onto green, damp green everywhere.

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So those of us right on the coast will be hoping that the low tracks further south than progged, right? I don't think I could bear it if we got nothing but rain (with all due to respect to those people who have experienced flooding). Still, if it's safe to do so I might go for a little trip out to the Downs to give the the dog a treat. She's a husky cross and all her winter coat has now blown so she may not be so happy about it as usual!

Fromey, I really hope everybody is sensible over the upcoming period and that the Met Office are able to get some warnings out so that people don't get caught out. Hats off to all the brilliant people in the NHS who have to keep working when the rest of us go out to play drinks.gifair_kiss.gif

Many thanks for that, i have a feeling my annual leave may be cancelled next week if it does turn bad.

all i will say is just think about your journey, is it really worth it, and plan ahead if it is and just keep up to date with the weather and the warnings!!!

fromey

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Hey all,

New to Netweather and have been watching the models and comments with great interest, not that I understand them much!

I live in Princetown, Devon, in the middle of Dartmoor.

What are peoples thoughts on extent of snow here over the weekend/next week?

Thanks in advance

Ian

Welcome aboard Ian!........Re. snow potential.....a few cm's over Dartmoor (especially with your elevation) on saturday into sunday morning, and if ECM12z verifies, I would expect substantial accumulations over the moors

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Welcome aboard Ian!........Re. snow potential.....a few cm's over Dartmoor (especially with your elevation) on saturday into sunday morning, and if ECM12z verifies, I would expect substantial accumulations over the moors

Music to my ears Sir! Thanks for the welcome and thanks for the information!

I hope this comes together and soon because im think im going to have a heart attack (and a divorce) with all this model watching!

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Note to anyone who has a snow shovel........don't leave it in the garage/shed. Have it in the house so that you can dig yourself out!blum.gif

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Hey all,

New to Netweather and have been watching the models and comments with great interest, not that I understand them much!

I live in Princetown, Devon, in the middle of Dartmoor.

What are peoples thoughts on extent of snow here over the weekend/next week?

Thanks in advance

Ian

Hi Ian that makes two of us on here from the village! Regards to snow it's a bit early for details yet and can be a nowcast situation sometimes! Keep an eye on here though.

Jason

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something from steve m in the MOD on the 18Z

With every run the 'risk' of snow slides east & slightly south-

Just 24 hours ago the Midlands was the prime spot- I think its still in the mix but also southern counties now as early as SAT AM

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-2-66.png?18

as mentioned & Ian confirmed- more & more snow in the forecasts as the undercut just gets a tad stronger each run...

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Hi Ian that makes two of us on here from the village! Regards to snow it's a bit early for details yet and can be a nowcast situation sometimes! Keep an eye on here though.

Jason

Hi Jason,

A fellow villager, nice one! Im above Lords, where are you?

Could be an interesting weekend by the looks of it if the models play out.

Sorry mods if this is off topic!

Ian

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Shortwaves playing hell again. Snow further south on each run it seems (earlier on saturday)

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something from steve m in the MOD on the 18Z

With every run the 'risk' of snow slides east & slightly south-

Just 24 hours ago the Midlands was the prime spot- I think its still in the mix but also southern counties now as early as SAT AM

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-2-66.png?18

as mentioned & Ian confirmed- more & more snow in the forecasts as the undercut just gets a tad stronger each run...

Was just looking at this. The front doesn't get quite as far north as the 12z and the cold air arrives & undercuts quicker too giving a decent fall of snow over the Cotswolds for example, and something further south too;

post-12721-0-70336600-1357768527_thumb.j

post-12721-0-17252100-1357768584_thumb.jpost-12721-0-96856400-1357768590_thumb.jpost-12721-0-50142000-1357768597_thumb.jpost-12721-0-43894000-1357768603_thumb.j

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Shortwaves playing hell again. Snow further south on each run it seems (earlier on saturday)

prectypeuktopo.png

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