Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Naw, they got plenty in 1963 and on the Scilly Isles as well.

Not forgetting Jan '87, and maybe a few other years! All i'm saying is it must be pretty snowless even by UK standards.

[Shunter]

Can anybody explain what this means in complete newbie terms? A poster called Iceberg said this earlier :

"First off we've got the GFS; probably not as good as the 06Z beyond the reliable and that doesnt matter tbh, upto T144 we should see some good continuity hopefully.

Then Meto and the smaller models, again an inch towards the 06 GFS would be good.

Finally the ECM, A little birdy has told me that the the 12Z and 00Z ECms from the last two runs had a very different 300-100mb temp profile across sections of the atlantic sourced from a sat sweep (one sat sweep for both), the 12z today should be the first ecm with a new updated sat sweep and my gut tells me that ecm will revert to GH height rises in the medium term."

Does that mean that the ECM had the wrong data fro the previous two runs and that is why there is a big turn around?

Doubt it, but heres the latest American forecast from NOAA that includes the recent 12z EcmWF data.....

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I am so fascinated by the record low confidence of models, why is this? I mean there are pointers....seems odd

BFTP

[Snowman.]

1335 Viewers

This replaces "That ECM"

[cornish snow]

You live on the lizard peninsula? Must be hard pushed to get snow there unless its an exceptional month like Dec 2010.

Sure do and yes it is. another JAN 1987 would be nice but it could never be better than that

[karlos1983]

dont you believe it . Getting snow to the uk is one thing,getting it down here is quite another.

I feel your pain my friend, i feel your pain.

[snowice]

Yes, This mornings 7.55am forecast from "Met Eireann" certainly is not going for cold, I have kept a copy of it to see if it verifies.

"There will be frost and icy patches Friday night and Saturday night but there is a possibility of cloudy, milder weather again moving in from the Atlantic during Sunday and Sunday night bringing temperatures back up to between 8 and 12 degrees for next week with some wet and windy spells likely."

By 9.30 pm it will be replaced trust me?

[Mac_SE]

When FergieWeather et al start confirming I'll be more confident. But until then I definitely reserve judgement, especially given the embarrassing amount of cigar unwrapping and backslapping that went on here in early December.

[cold snap]

If all 3 models were showing all mild for next week we me included would be saying confidence is high mild is coming

So as it stands at 7.21 pm tonight confidence is high that a major cold snap is coming

Edited January 8, 2013 by cold snap

[GoonerGregg77]

BOYAKA SHAR!!!

[weather_it_will]

BBC look east, just giving a cooling trend with daytime max over the weekend 5c and a min overnight low 2c no mention of any wintry precipitation think they will be needing to update a touch

Quick..someone call the Metoffice and let them know it's soon going to be very cold with snow.

Edited January 8, 2013 by snow is falling

[Paul T]

The NAEFS average pressure anomaly charts have very strong signals for high pressure to our North (over Iceland) at 168hrs.

The result: COLD continually drawn in from the East, with the potential for some lengthy blocking as it drifts over Greenland.

These charts are always very important in my view, and gave me big confidence quite a few days back that cold was on the way.

I am always careful when charts signal massive potential, but this is genuinely all coming together now, with my personal highlight being the potentail for a low to track North to South on Monday - could bring country wide snowfall. Serious potential!

Hold. On. Tight.

[mountain shadow]

Re: TV Forecasts

They'll still be using old data, watch the 10:30 forecast after the news, I'd have thought they'd be using the new 12z data by then!

Spot on. The after 10 always has the latest updates from the met.

[mulzy]

Things looking great, bar for the medium term GEFS - we need to wait for the all important ECM ensembles and of course that chinese model!

[Met4Cast]

This chart from T96 shows that there's still some uncertainty over key features for this weekend

So it's probably best we all get a sense of reality for a while, at least until we see some model consistency

[John Cox]

By 9.30 pm it will be replaced trust me?

I will be watching very closely. As they mainly use the ECM then we would expect that

[karlos1983]

Well the ECM is DA BOM this evening................so far..........

[LomondSnowstorm]

lol! just got back from work and hardly nothing has been answered apart from a cooling towards this weekend...I think for the sake of my own health I'll stay away from this board until the weekend (still will be up in the air),

I love looking at the models at this time of year and thought the debacle of last February was enough but this has been eclipsed!

Are you looking at the same charts as the rest of us? I mean of course there are issues still to be resolved but this is the most positive output of the winter so far with broad cross model agreement. No chicken counting of course but I think it's an odd time to throw your toys out of the pram.

[Methuselah]

Are you looking at the same charts as the rest of us? I mean of course there are issues still to be resolved but this is the most positive output of the winter so far with broad cross model agreement. No chicken counting of course but I think it's an odd time to throw your toys out of the pram.

He's not throwing the out yet. He's just lining them in anticipation...

[mistyqueen]

I'm deliberately refraining from ramping as it looks from that chart that the north and north west of scotland don't look like they'll be on the receiving end of much white stuff. Just keep calm and carry on.......

[Southern Storm]

This chart from T96 shows that there's still some uncertainty over key features for this weekend

So it's probably best we all get a sense of reality for a while, at least until we see some model consistency

It would be nice to see how that compares to a standard weather pattern for our neck of the woods at +96,

As I get the feeling that the chat you posted is not that bad.

PS I wouldn't post to many net weather extra charts, but nice to know what you can get with extra subscription.

Edited January 8, 2013 by thunderman24

[If Wishes made Weather]

Well of course wonderful runs this evening - although as many have said, exact details still need confirming, but the general trend seems to be there for the weekend and into early next week. Thereafter its really interesting though: high pressure establishing over Iceland and pulling a cold easterly flow with it. As others have noticed, if the most extreme predictions are correct that we have seen from the GFS in FI, and possibly at what the ECM is hinting at, this could be heavy snow, strong winds and over a period of time.

[mcweather]

Through all the ups and downs and the December ecm easterly that never was one man held firm. One man said wait till mid Jan if you want to see really stonking charts come into the reliable time frame. One man said keep an eye on the strat and watch the vortex fall apart, When the strat was at record cold levels one man said don't worry it won't last. When the rain lashed down and temps went up at christmas one man stood alone and said wait til mid January.

Ladies and Gentleman I give you Glacier Point.

Edited January 8, 2013 by mcweather

[tcc]

WTF, I dont know what to say.

You just made me spit my tea out all over the PC! Thanks!

[bryan629]

someone said the other day not to give the fat lady the microphone just yet....... is now a good time ?