South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 6th 2013>

[tinybill]

with the model thread all in a good mood!!! all eyes on the country file weather later!!

[chilly milly]

Good afternoon everyone. I've been out and about most of this morning and I can certainly say it's damp and chilly out there. Garden temp is 9.4c but car read between 7.5c and 8c.

Now stuffed full of pork and feeling quite content especially with the forecasts still holding strong for a colder next weekend. Best put the bikini away and sort out my thermals again.

[legrandefromage]

''...There are known knowns; there are things we know that we know.

There are known unknowns; that is to say there are things that, we now know we don't know.

But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know...''

[Kent Snow]

Earlier FOG has now lifted to low cloud. Still slate grey and dull. Roll on a day of sunshine!

[tinybill]

very thick fog here in ipswich

[abruzzi spur]

Just been in to the model thread and I am now frazzled, baffled, bewildered, befuddled and thoroughly discombobulated (I love that word).

However I think I have worked out, from the various posts, that the latest models definitely show cold. Or mild. With South Westerlies or Easterlies. With a re-load or a no-load. With lots of people having been proven right and an equal number having been proven wrong. With others having been wrong this morning and now suddenly being right, without having changed their views at all, which is a neat trick. On the other hand I have noted some posters who were absolutely correct earlier today but now are undoubtedly wrong (until later when they have a chance of being right again).

No wonder we stick to the regionals!

AS

Edited January 6, 2013 by abruzzi spur

[Eskimo]

My snow report got into my local newspaper on Thursday, just saw it today! It has no reference to my name with the Mercury saying that the results came from the MetOffice, it was little old me!

[Snowangel-MK]

The look at this weeks weather (turning colder) with what could happen next weekend and after.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/20926997

I couldn't take my eyes of his eyebrows at the end

[Jax]

Just been in to the model thread and I am now frazzled, baffled, bewildered, befuddled and thoroughly discombobulated (I love that word).

However I think I have worked out, from the various posts, that the latest models definitely show cold. Or mild. With South Westerlies or Easterlies. With a re-load or a no-load. With lots of people having been proven right and an equal number having been proven wrong. With others having been wrong this morning and now suddenly being right, without having changed their views at all, which is a neat trick. On the other hand I have noted some posters who were absolutely correct earlier today but now are undoubtedly wrong (until later when they have a chance of being right again).

No wonder we stick to the regionals!

AS

errrr, correct!

I couldn't take my eyes of his eyebrows at the end

Like two caterpillars in a bar brawl?

Edited January 6, 2013 by Jax

[Snowangel-MK]

Hope you've all had a lovely Sunday and the level of excitement and anticipation is still high

I've been out all day so not really had chance to look at the latest charts etc but from what I've seen so far it's all looking good.... which is more than can be said for me after falling in the mud earlier today

Anyway it was a great walk if anyone is in the area I would thoroughly recommend it ...

http://www.letsgo.org.uk/walk/thedms.aspx?dms=13&feature=4&venue=2806210

[john pike]

Fi is on the 11th

Getting cold from the 12th

How cold?

I'm happy still. Some very cold ensembles showing

To my eyes this is a typical gfs run (the thick green line)struggling with an east to west flow

Ecm soon but fax later will be more interesting

[NO LONGER POSTING]

This forum is getting way to personal (in some parts)

[lottiekent]

This forum is getting way to personal (in some parts)

What? The SE forum? Why'd you think that?

[Lauren]

Was it quite humid (for winter that is!) for anybody else this morning or was I imagining things?

[nanu]

Well i should imagine that the arguments have started in the the model thread??(dont even want to peek in there..) bbc and sky predicting what could be a cold spell of weather?? havent seen the daily express go bonkers yet with an amazing headline but if its on the bbc and sky we should see that tomorrow or the day after!!.. so with all this on board and it fails?? i think there should be a mass suicide threat page made. after the last beast went sour im not even gonna give any hope till its all 24hrs away.

[Eskimo]

This is what I feel like when escaping the Model thread!

(Click the image)

Edited January 6, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[Sussex Jules]

Not pretty in the MOD thread at the moment. I think I'll stick to John's forecasts.

[Ben_Cambs]

Judging by today's differing and volatile output, I'd put F.I at T+96. Beyond this time, the models begin to diverge significantly. UKMO, GFS and ECM at T+96:

UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

ECM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

A few differences at this timeframe, though nothing too significant. Then compare the models at T+120, where the differences begin to increase between the main three models:

UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

ECM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

For example, UKMO handles the Azores high much differently compared to ECM and GFS. Then go out to T+144 where the UKMO ends:

UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

ECM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Plenty of differences between the models at this timeframe. Some examples include much increased heights to the south of the UK on UKMO compared to GFS and ECM. Then for example, ECM has the area of HP originally over Scandinavia over the north of the UK, while GFS and UKMO maintain it over or to the west of Norway. Just a couple of examples but I'm sure I could list at least a few more!

The point of this post is effectively to say not to get too down-heartened by tonight's output. Even within today's two model sets there have been big changes. The volatile nature of the output in the past few days suggests to me that this volatility will continue for a while yet. Best to keep an open mind about the output in the next few days I feel.

[80sWeather]

Judging by today's differing and volatile output, I'd put F.I at T+96. Beyond this time, the models begin to diverge significantly. UKMO, GFS and ECM at T+96:

UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

ECM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

A few differences at this timeframe, though nothing too significant. Then compare the models at T+120, where the differences begin to increase between the main three models:

UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

ECM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

For example, UKMO handles the Azores high much differently compared to ECM and GFS. Then go out to T+144 where the UKMO ends:

UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

ECM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Plenty of differences between the models at this timeframe. Some examples include much increased heights to the south of the UK on UKMO compared to GFS and ECM. Then for example, ECM has the area of HP originally over Scandinavia over the north of the UK, while GFS and UKMO maintain it over or to the west of Norway. Just a couple of examples but I'm sure I could list at least a few more!

The point of this post is effectively to say not to get too down-heartened by tonight's output. Even within today's two model sets there have been big changes. The volatile nature of the output in the past few days suggests to me that this volatility will continue for a while yet. Best to keep an open mind about the output in the next few days I feel.

Great post Ben, spot on, with a SSW in place massive changes to the vortex will confuse the models from the usual mobile westerly pattern.

[80sWeather]

This is what I feel like when escaping the Model thread!

(Click the image)

A bit like the models at the mo with plenty of wild swings!

[Snowangel-MK]

Like two caterpillars in a bar brawl?

And there was me thinking the 'high' was weather related not the position of Chris Fawkes eyebrows

[Jimmyh]

ahhhh some sanity from the huge knife slashing in the model thread man its bad over ther

[Eskimo]

And there was me thinking the 'high' was weather related not the position of Chris Fawkes eyebrows

That shot of him looks like he's just found out he's poo'd himself

[Ice Day]

ahhhh some sanity from the huge knife slashing in the model thread man its bad over ther

Just escaped myself. I think some of them over there are on the verge of doing themselves (or their laptops) a mischief!

[john pike]

I am going to call fi +6 hours

If u follow every run that is

Ha ha

Watch the mood change again in about 1 hours time