Scotland Regional Discussion 4th January 2013>

[Highland Snow]

Gavin Partridge's take on the SSW:

[karimac]

Aww dinny say that! Tryn to work this on my phne no easy lol! Ocht well, if we get snow its all my fault... Damn se england, they canny cope with it either hahaha!

* meant nae snow obv. Need to stop watchn darts at the same time

[Highland Snow]

The weather for the week ahead:

[Norrance]

The BBC weather for the week showed average by midweek with the chance of Wintry showers by Friday. Unusually he then went on to show a chart for the weekend indicating high pressure building to the North with wintry possibilities. The chart shown would certainly bring showers to the East and not just SE England. He did emphasise that it was not cast in stone.

Here a bit cooler today but still on the mild side at 7C. Pretty dull again.

Lets see what next week brings.

[blitzen]

Mmm, that's interesting Blitzen!

I go out to China on a business trip next Sunday evening 13th until Friday 18th.

Suzhou, Jiangsu Province.

I hadn't checked yet as to what the weather is doing out there, so now I know thanks Blitzy

I better pack plenty warm clothing then!!!

Big Innes

Blimey BI! that is some treck. Best stick a few pairs of Long Johns in your luggage!

Here you go:

http://www.worldweat...Jiangsu/CN.aspx

The really cold stuff is in the NE part of China and you look to be going to the SE? Going by the above forecast, you should be okay? (or not - depending on your preference!) I think I would like to see China myself. Hugely different culture. The Chinese really crack me up tho' - always smiling, always well mannered, even tho' they haven't got a clue what you are talking about! I always think of the time we were travelling back from holiday in Kent. We were catching the train to London from Deal. The train pulled in and a very busy guardsman got off and started piling peoples' luggage into the guards van as there was no room in the carriages. This wee Chinese tourist (complete with camera) walks up and tapped him on the shoulder and said "excuse me, ris the Rondon train?" The guardsman, without lifting his head, said "yes." The wee Chinaman walked away a few steps then walked back and tapped him on the shoulder again and asked "you sure ris train go Rondon?" and the reply again was "yes!" Yet again he walked away a few steps and yet again returned and asked - "so ris definitely Rondon train?" The guardsman still piling on luggage and without lifting his head shouted " GET ON THE F'N TRAIN!!" The poor wee man just scattered and needless to say, everyone on the platform was helpless with laughter!

Edited January 6, 2013 by Blitzen

[blitzen]

Can I ask a question please as I am a little confused. We have been hearing for some time now about the SSW taking place, but I have read a couple of posts stating that it takes place today? What does this mean exactly? Is it just the start of the warming today, as I appear to have been looking at charts of it for ages?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Can I ask a question please as I am a little confused. We have been hearing for some time now about the SSW taking place, but I have read a couple of posts stating that it takes place today? What does this mean exactly? Is it just the start of the warming today, as I appear to have been looking at charts of it for ages?

It's been forecast for a while now, with indications of it being around this date since late November and the models showing it all the way from +384, but the actual date of technical SSW occurring is today. After this, the models will be taking the spectacular reversal of upper zonal winds as an input condition rather than as part of their modelling, so things should begin to become a bit clearer for next weekend onwards.

[blitzen]

Ta for that LS, I see what is meant now.

[NUT]

The last mild day possibly tomorrow (maybe into tuesday a little bit) Then I guess we shall see what happens from then onwards............back to the now just starting to get dark (days starting now to get longer) before the next deluge hits

[Cheggers]

Grey damp day, but at least the hairdryer has subsided for the time being.

[Hairy Celt]

Dreich s41t day to say the least. Gawd, cummon SSW, do yer stuff, stop mincing around. Just some surface cold and sun will do. Ta.

[snowy owl]

Not a bad day here, quite mild, a wee drop sun and then mostly cloudy and dull. No rain so far.

SSW should be having some impact on the charts from today onwards, so lots to watch this week.

Day off work tomorrow, yipee!! Back to normal work work work on Tuesday and busy it will be too:( At least i should have the charts to bring some cheer.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

See that low spoiler has been ironed out in the GFS 12Z. Starting to look very interesting.

[A Winter's Tale]

Another mild, overcast and damp day but thankfully a change to colder conditions seem very likely next week but the detail of the whole thing is up in the air - especially towards the weekend. The MT was laughable this afternoon but at the same time it drives you to tearing your hair out. The problem is that too many folk look at a run or a chart at face value and base their entire perspective on it. The thing that was wrong with the GFS 12z was that the Thames could never freeze and there'll be nost frost fares at the world's greatest city. But it's not that bad for us in 'the north'.

Whatever happens we've still got the granduer of the magnificant, wild and stunning Cairngorms that boasts more chances for a winter wonderland than Westminster ever will.

How about frost fares on Loch Morlich????

[howham]

More toys than Hamleys in the MT (all being thrown)...

[A Winter's Tale]

Let's compare the 12z charts from two days and the 12z charts from today with regards to 10 January

GFS - I would say that on today's run we have better heights between Iceland and Norway

ECM - 1020mb high north of Scotland today - nothing like that two days ago.

UKMO - Better run today with 1020mb high between Iceland and Norway

GEM - Better potential today regarding Azores High making northward progress

BOM - Weaker heights today

JMA - Very similar

NOGAPS - Fairly similar

It's important to remember that this intial high to the north of Scotland wouldn't have been visible on the models a few days ago so we've seen some decent upgrades but as I've said, this feature probably isn't the main attraction but it is an interesting feature in this period of transition from this current scenario to the next - which I think is likely to be high pressure over Iceland and Greenland given the favourable background signals.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Let's compare the 12z charts from two days and the 12z charts from today with regards to 10 January

GFS - I would say that on today's run we have better heights between Iceland and Norway

ECM - 1020mb high north of Scotland today - nothing like that two days ago.

UKMO - Better run today with 1020mb high between Iceland and Norway

GEM - Better potential today regarding Azores High making northward progress

BOM - Weaker heights today

JMA - Very similar

NOGAPS - Fairly similar

It's important to remember that this intial high to the north of Scotland wouldn't have been visible on the models a few days ago so we've seen some decent upgrades but as I've said, this feature probably isn't the main attraction but it is an interesting feature in this period of transition from this current scenario to the next - which I think is likely to be high pressure over Iceland and Greenland given the favourable background signals.

Precisely! That was the point I was trying to make on the MT - the models have been playing around with different solutions over the last 3 or 4 days but the cold potential was brought forward very dramatically from just 48 hours ago when it looked like any real cold would come the week after next at the absolute earliest. An initial easterly would be nice but it was still really just part of the first phase of mid latitude height rises, bringing in surface cold, after which we're likely to see height rises ridging further north-northwest.

SS thanks very much for posting that chart - a really fantastic set of ensembles with cold pretty much throughout, slightly moreso than on previous runs too. I don't see what's so horrible about the output tonight to be honest.

[over_the_rainbow]

Glad it's all calm perspective in here, because its teeth grinding again in the MT. If anything I thought the GFS ensembles are looking better as we go along - with the spread between mean, op and control getting less and all showing a colder evolution - or am I missing something?

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Aye, winter's over until the 18Z, then it'll be back on again, only to end early doors before restarting aroond breakfast time and so on.

Suggest folks just keep an eye on the ensembles for now.

Edited January 6, 2013 by scottish skier

[lorenzo]

Will be interesting to see where the latest ECM lives among the ensembles. Last night it was the coldest option within the cluster, wonder where it will live this evening and whether the cold cluster maintains it's definition.

GFS presenting some interest for us, would not grumble about this.

Also out of amusement 528 air approaching from East and West.. conveniently linking over Scotland.

Got to love it when there is not an easterly or a monster ridge where it needs to be then you can always rely on the drama, who needs soaps.

[BurntFishTrousers]

Why is "cheggers" trending on twitter?

[Cheggers]

Why is "cheggers" trending on twitter?

I have never been on Naked Jungle honest.

[NorthernRab]

I have never been on Naked Jungle honest.

Cheggers you dog!

[Allyw12]

Oh dear decided to visit the MT and they have sucked any hope I had right out of me.

From what could gather I don't think the 18z/METO have not shown the same promise of the past few days. Also the cold air looks to build over the USA stealing our chance of winter?

It's only 1 run no? it could all change again tomorrow ........ I hope

Edited January 6, 2013 by Allyw12

[LomondSnowstorm]

Oh dear decided to visit the MT and they have sucked any hope I had right out of me.

From what could gather I don't think the 18z/METO have not shown the same promise of the past few days. Also the cold air looks to build over the USA stealing our chance of winter?

It's only 1 run no? it could all change again tomorrow ........ I hope

Both 12ZGFS and 18Z GFS brought in -8C uppers from the east. Models toying around with various solutions but all look cold on the ground and some look snowy, and that's just for starters....