Scotland Regional Discussion 4th January 2013>

[lorenzo]

Sorry stupid question but is the Greenland high good or bad thing ?

No question is a stupid question other than the question that is not asked, so don't worry about asking questions on here, there will always be someone around to answer them.

As per above definitely a good thing, in the context of now and the painstaking monitoring of the Russian High > Scandi High which has proven itself to be a perilous route to cold the Greenland high is far more straight forward.

Plus your question also allows me to post this chart, which I never tire of doing..

[Allyw12]

Thanks everyone, lots of positives tonight really hope it continues

Edited January 5, 2013 by Allyw12

[A Winter's Tale]

After a decent morning with a little bit of sunshine, it's been overcast ever since with rain arriving earlier in the evening.

Once the cold front clears there may be more widespread clear skies overnight than of late - possibly staying cloudier near the west coast and there is chance of mist and fog patches aswell. Temperatures should also be lower than it has been with lows of around 3 to 7C and possibly some frost for the areas surrounding the Cairngorms.

Sunday morning should initially start on a dry note with some clear spells but a little warm front see cloud cover and a little rain moving north eastwards. It should bring a spell of patchy drizzle eastern areas and a some light rain for western and central areas from late morning and into the evening. Maximum temperatures around 6 to 9C.

There could be further rain overnight for southern and western areas - a milder night with lows of 5 to 8C - and many parts of country could have a wet start to the week. Maximum temperatures 7 to 9C.

This could be followed by a spell of drier conditions before another area of rain could affect parts of the country but details on where isn't certain. Another mild night with lows of 5 to 8C.

There could be further rainfall affecting parts of the country throughout Tuesday for a time before clearing

Tuesday night could be drier for much of the country and colder too with lows of 2 to 5C. Into Wednesday and there could be a spell of rain for the northern half of the country. Maximum temperatures cooler than of late with values of 5 to 7C. And possibly another chilly night with clearer skies.

The background signals look very promising for later this month and there will be further variations across the models in the days to come with further data regarding the SSW being fed into the models as this may become more and more clear over the next few days. There was some nice charts earlier in FI and it'll be nice to further ice candy in the coming days and hopefully we'll see these stonking charts appearing at slightly earlier timeframes. A pattern change is very likely, but currently it's early days so patience is required for a valid, definite clarification of what's likely to evolve, and it will turn colder than it has been. The Met Office have been wise in stressing the uncertainty of the whole thing, anything post 120 hrs is uncertain so it's important to keep an eye on the developments around 120-162hrs rather than post 192 hours as the initial development are essential in directing the evolution of synoptics beyond that timeframe. There are so many features to look out for such as the strength/positioning of the high (of around 1020mb) centred between Iceland and Norway at around 90-174hrs; vertical advection; the low out at the Atlantic at around 40N which on it's eastern flank is helping to drive high pressure to northern latitudes. The initial high to the north of Scotland at a 'reasonable' range of 126 hrs - whatever it brings will probably be a starter to the main course, but it needs to be closely followed in further runs as it could end up being influential. The GFS 12z shows that it's the Azores/Iberian High that will follow up in progressing further north. The GFS 12z in FI shows the high being situated over the UK but when you look at it from a northern hemispherical perspective then I incline to disagree with how that particular run handles the polar vortex situation and goes against the background the signals. I'd expect high pressure to set-up in a more favourable position over Greenland but there's a lot of steps that have to be taken in order to get that position.

Let's take a look at the 12z runs at 120 and 144 hrs.

GFS

ECM (a cracking run - that high that develops to our north combines with high pressure towards Iberia, to end up with a stonking Greenie High)

UKMO

GEM

BOM

JMA

NOGAPS

The positioning and strength of the high to our north, the low to the west of the Azores/Iberian High varies from model to models and this will have of course have an impact on proceedings on things further down the line. Both the intitial high to our north and the Azores/Iberian High need to be closely followed in the coming days as both are important features in us getting HLB. Hopefully, as the models get to grips with changes that are ongoing in the stratosphere, that we end up with a clearer route to the HLB and I think that we will end up with further upgrades in the coming days but we are only at the early stages of the whole process so there's a long way to go and many hurdles to run but I'm quite optimistic that we'll get there this time round considering how the back ground signals are looking very favourable to blocking over Greenland. Perhaps by the end of it all, we could be looking back on a signifcant period of cold and wintry weather - it's very possible but we need to complete the steps before getting there. No matter what the outcome is, it should be a pleasure to watch this unfold and this sort of spectacle doesn't deserve whinging in the MT if all doesn't go well.

[blitzen]

Happy birthday BMW! Still sober? My dreaded day is next month, along with quite a few others on here!

[Snowplough33]

Well it's that time again. Last GSF live roll out of the day on the MT. I know not to base anything run by run, and its all about trends, blah blah but I just can't get enough of it at the moment!!! Each run is an adventure......... here we go. My wife says my computer activity at present is like winter a couple of years back........ don't know what she means .......

[Cheggers]

Evening all, just back from Edinburgh Princes Gardens, very breezy day which ended very wet driving up M9

Happy Birthday BMW, hope your having a great day.

[BleakMidwinter]

Happy birthday BMW! Still sober?

Yep! Ssshhh! Don't tell anyone, but I very rarely drink, because there's a vicious abusive alcoholic sibling... luckily I've learnt in the last few years that I enjoy myself just fine without the booze!

Thanks for the birthday wishes, all - I've had a lovely day, and although there was no snow, there is the hope of some more Winter before Spring, and that'll do me! Delayed gratification, very Scottish, all that Calvinism, eh?

[A Winter's Tale]

A calm, clear starry night - it's nice to see a change from the overcast skies of late.

Happy Birthday BMW!!!

[blitzen]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/05/china-weather-idUSL4N0AA0D820130105

Velly cold in China!

Edited January 5, 2013 by Blitzen

[Cheggers]

Any chance we can expect this anytime soon?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-20908471

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

T144

Mon the mean...

Edited January 6, 2013 by scottish skier

[mistyqueen]

T144

Mon the mean...

We live in hope!

[edo]

What is interesting is since the 2nd chase of the winter officially began last week the real cold and potentially snowy weather has actually come forward a couple of days which goes against the normal default position of slipping the other way....I think the key is SS meanwatch

Interesting times

[lorenzo]

We could do with a little bit of more action from the GFS in moving toward ECM and the delights it is serving up at the moment.

Hopefully we will see that on the 12z later, and not the other way round with the ECM toning things down and leading to mass despondency.

Models are going to ebb and flow between the extent of the Greenland High, but cannot ultimately see us avoiding it.

[Northernlights]

Another quiet benign morning weatherwise calm, overcast and currently 6c. The calm before the storm?

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

06Z GFS no bad at all. Still tries to pull a low pressure in to spoil things, but only temporarily before it goes back to eye candy. More like the ECM than the 00Z.

168

FI

Edited January 6, 2013 by scottish skier

[karimac]

Overcast mega boring weather here in the kingdom this morning. Lookn gud for the nxt couple of weeks tho! Just hope we see some white stuff, according to one of the posts on another thread it seems to be just kent and se? Time will tell! Spent so long watchn lamposts the last time i actually started to see white spots... ;-)

[LomondSnowstorm]

Overcast mega boring weather here in the kingdom this morning. Lookn gud for the nxt couple of weeks tho! Just hope we see some white stuff, according to one of the posts on another thread it seems to be just kent and se? Time will tell! Spent so long watchn lamposts the last time i actually started to see white spots... ;-)

Too early to say where is best favoured other than the east coast generally, probably more likely the southeast but on most of the output today there'd be at least a bit of snow for Fife, Dundee ad the Lothians. Main thing to watch in the long run is still the high pressure going to Greenland, if it does we're really in business for snowmaggedon in the long term.

[Big Innes Madori]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/05/china-weather-idUSL4N0AA0D820130105

Velly cold in China!

Mmm, that's interesting Blitzen!

I go out to China on a business trip next Sunday evening 13th until Friday 18th.

Suzhou, Jiangsu Province.

I hadn't checked yet as to what the weather is doing out there, so now I know thanks Blitzy

I better pack plenty warm clothing then!!!

Big Innes

[Allyw12]

Cloudy here today but temp had halved today from 10.6 yesterday to 5.7 today.

This model watching can be heart in mouth stuff, so happy to see all is good and models are still heading in the right direction.

Edited January 6, 2013 by Allyw12

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Morns ECM 0Z ensembles for surface T london. Mean looking good as per the op.

And the GFS 06Z ensembles

That low pressure temporary spoiler ironing out a bit with not super support from members.

Edited January 6, 2013 by scottish skier

[karimac]

Thanks lomond, just got to pray for greenland high pressure then! Snowmageddon sounds awesome! The six pound we spent on a snow shovel two yrs ago might yet prove to money well spent. Not buying new wellies yet, dinny want to jinx anything!

Thanks lomond, just got to pray for greenland high pressure then! Snowmageddon sounds awesome! The six pound we spent on a snow shovel two yrs ago might yet prove to money well spent. Not buying new wellies yet, dinny want to jinx anything!

[Highland Snow]

The BIG question for the next fortnight - Beast from the East or Pest from the West? The jury is out!

[edo]

Thanks lomond, just got to pray for greenland high pressure then! Snowmageddon sounds awesome! The six pound we spent on a snow shovel two yrs ago might yet prove to money well spent. Not buying new wellies yet, dinny want to jinx anything!

Thanks lomond, just got to pray for greenland high pressure then! Snowmageddon sounds awesome! The six pound we spent on a snow shovel two yrs ago might yet prove to money well spent. Not buying new wellies yet, dinny want to jinx anything!

awwww no you have done it now...the saying it twice double jinx means no snaw

[Stormeh]

I really hope Glasgow and the west can get snow from this and not just cold and dry.