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gottolovethisweather

Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 3rd January 2013>

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Hello, it does seem that having looked at the latest GFS run and a general gut feeling about the place, that there is a stronger trend emerging towards a change in conditions.

A recent attempt of mine at a forecast, as shown below, picked up on changes in the Jetstream and Upper Air profiles.

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2459740

So the question is, did the forecast verify?

Here's what was suggested for t+72, which was 12pm yesterday.

post-7183-0-79102800-1357233155_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-74822700-1357233154_thumb.pn

The reality was that yesterday turned out largely as anticipated. good.gif So, if we move on to where the NH Jetstream and T850s suggest we will be in three days time (6th January, 12pm), has much changed?

post-7183-0-68090000-1357233530_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-28976800-1357233531_thumb.pn

It will largely be a case of as we are at current time, the Northern arm of the NH Jetstream heading increasingly further North of the UK. The T850s, largely as of now, i.e. at the surface, Temperatures will be in the mild/very mild category, more especially by night under cloudy skies.

The most PROMISING synoptic comes about at t+105 (Monday 7th January, 9pm) as this is when the NH Jetstream flow disrupts and splits. drinks.gif Once this has happened our region is briefly placed under a split flow and by t+144 (Wednesday 9th January, 12pm). Should the current run verify, would put the Southeast in particular, under a colder SE'rly flow. good.gifSmall steps towards a bigger change, perhaps.

This was how things were expected to happen at this range.

post-7183-0-87696400-1357234984_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-92381400-1357234983_thumb.pn

This is how things are now forecast for the same timeframe.

post-7183-0-86899300-1357235277_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-34353800-1357236591_thumb.pn

From the above you can clearly see that we are in a much better situation with the NH Jetstream split and a quiet atlantic. The downside perhaps, is that High Pressure remains nearby and it certainly won't be cold enough for snow, in spite of being much cooler than of late.

Into deeper FI at t+216 (Saturday 12th January, 12pm) things are looking very tasty as the Southern arm of NH Jetstream has seemingly taken vacation and the flow may well be from the North or East by this period. For a number of days now, I have been harping on about this being a key date for a general pattern change and I still see no reason why it shouldn't. The real pattern change of course, should the SSW continue as expected, will be at an even later timescale (Mid to Late January).

post-7183-0-09719000-1357236429_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-88689700-1357236536_thumb.pn

IMHO, there is plenty of fun and games to come before true Spring arrives. r018.gif k040.gif a018.gif

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Feb 2009

post-12721-0-26437500-1357243555_thumb.j

Feb 2012

?

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Latest NAE showing some cooler uppers to our NW on Saturday now as the mild air starts sinking SE.

post-12721-0-28775900-1357243759_thumb.j

Next week could feel more seasonal if nothing else.

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And for anybody wondering what to look for in the model output over the next couple of weeks, look for charts like this;

post-12721-0-89762000-1357244305_thumb.j

If you see charts like this in the operational model output within T96 its time to do this;

post-12721-0-05064300-1357244462_thumb.j

And this;

post-12721-0-28532800-1357244479_thumb.j

In all seriousness, we have a very interesting second half of winter coming up. That includes the whole of February too as it could quite easily take a few bites of the cherry.

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Things starting to show tentative signs of getting interesting if one is in to cold and possibly snow.

Still a long way off (maybe) so i ain't saying anything to anyone outside this forum, otherwise it'll be guaranteed it'll go Baps Up! LOL

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UK Outlook for Friday 18 Jan 2013 to Friday 1 Feb 2013:

There is greater than average uncertainty through this forecast period, though it looks likely to start with fairly average climatological conditions, meaning the south and east of the UK will see the driest and brightest weather, while the north and west will tend to be more unsettled. However, there could be some rain at times anywhere across the UK. Temperatures will tend to often be close to average for the time of year to begin with. Then, later, there is an increasing risk of more marked changes of weather-type occurring, and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions and wintry weather increases relative to early January.

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

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Well it's drier this morning, and now dropped back to single figures at 9.1°C.

Overcast seems the word this morning.

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Morning All - Groundhog day again today, gloomy and dry, third day on the trot exactly the same. Although it is dry it is still rubbish weather although if the SSW etc is to be believed we all might see something a little more interesting fairly soon, which would be nice!

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Yeah 3 days in and still not a glimmer of sun on my Met Office 5 day forecast.. this set up is every bit as bad as I thought it would be. The only thing stopping me from strongly preferring a return to the active Atlantic weather to this is how wet it's been and the flooding problems, at least we had some sun then.

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Morning All - Groundhog day again today, gloomy and dry, third day on the trot exactly the same. Although it is dry it is still rubbish weather although if the SSW etc is to be believed we all might see something a little more interesting fairly soon, which would be nice!

It most definitely is to be believed and the media are jumping onto, for once without too much hype. Just please don't believe that we are nailed on for an EPIC winter and that every word the papers print will be true. Stick with the guys in here and read the latest on the appropriate threads, which is most definitely a safer bet. IMHO, as I stated in previous posts, the first signs of a changearound will be in the period from th 10th to the 12th.

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Hi GTLTW - I'll be reading all the posts with interest over the next period of time and I'll be hoping (like the majority of us) that something wintry will prevail. Having spent the best part of 8 years reading / lurking on here and TWO I still find it hard not to get 'drawn into' epic runs and 'ramping' so I thought by posting on the forum I might become more pragmatic in my views / hopes / expectations.....we'll see!! lol

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Exactly the same as yesterday.

9.5c dull & cloudy.

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I saw some tiny bits of blue sky about an hour ago. I can't see them now, but it was quite exciting at the time!biggrin.png

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Exactly the same as yesterday.

9.5c dull & cloudy.

Now is the Winter of our discontent

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Now is the Winter of our discontent

Made glorious summer by this sun of York? rofl.gif

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Looking out the window, let me see, it's cloudy and a visual check....9.8C

At least it's not raininggood.gif

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Interesting progression of colder air from the East late next week......

180_31.gif

186_31.gif

192_31.gif

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Made glorious summer by this sun of York? rofl.gif

Better a Witty fool, Than a foolish Witclapping.gif

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I think this post from Ian sums up nicely the BBC/MetO overview for 10 to 15 days and backs up that cold coming in from the East around the 12th:

Small steps, but positive ones!

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I think this post from Ian sums up nicely the BBC/MetO overview for 10 to 15 days and backs up that cold coming in from the East around the 12th:

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2463736

Small steps, but positive ones!

I'm loving the last sentence......yahoo.gif

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Anyone notice Ian's latest post in the MOD thread?

Mouthwatering to say the least.

Cold easterly flow and ( the last couple of sentences) signal for heavy PPN in SW.

All very uncertain and not to be taken to literally yet off course, but if something like that verifies we could have some very interesting times ahead down here.

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Just Maybe this time it will happen for us, Slowly Slowly catchy Monkey, but this time slowly slowly catchy snowy

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