Met office Contingency planners forecasts

[Premiere Neige]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm pretty sure that it [Shades of '76] was a Netweather prediction. 2011? Anyone (or any organisation) who makes LRFs sets themselves up for ridicule -- it goes with the territory?

Particularly if your name happens to be James Madden and you predict the coldest winter since records began every winter. I wonder what he's doing these days, haven't heard anything about him for a while. He's probably driving a HGV....

[Froze were the Days]

25 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Particularly if your name happens to be James Madden and you predict the coldest winter since records began every winter. I wonder what he's doing these days, haven't heard anything about him for a while. He's probably driving a HGV....

Agree with your post but not the final bit...you should know HGV drivers are rarer than 62-63 style winters now days or so we're told. 

[Tom Clarke]

3 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

That's because it's literally all they forecast, year in year out, mild mild mild. 

Funnily enough the two factors they quote as being the key ones (-QBO, La Nina) actually support a colder first half to winter, so to only give 10% is utterly bizarre, but unsurprising from the Met Office. 

Giving a 10% chance of a colder than average November when all data points suggest below average is most likely is also bizarre, I can only assume the contingency forecast was based upon the Oct seasonal update.

DTN/Meteogroup interestingly are suggesting a below average winter is more likely vs mild, not sure I agree with that 100% either, but the Met Office forecast is already looking wrong and at odds with their 30 dayer forecasts. 

The 30 dayer only covers up until late November - which is not winter. Given their record, I would back the forecast they have provided as it is apparently supported by other organisations - notably the Iberian model which is highly respected and (apparently) proved to be right a few years ago when others were going for a wet Iberian winter.

 

 

[FetchCB]

6 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

Particularly if your name happens to be James Madden and you predict the coldest winter since records began every winter. I wonder what he's doing these days, haven't heard anything about him for a while. He's probably driving a HGV....

On the Ice Roads 

[Met4Cast]

On 27/10/2021 at 15:09, Tom Clarke said:

The 30 dayer only covers up until late November - which is not winter. Given their record, I would back the forecast they have provided as it is apparently supported by other organisations - notably the Iberian model which is highly respected and (apparently) proved to be right a few years ago when others were going for a wet Iberian winter.

 

 

The contingency forecast covers November.. it's not a "winter forecast" but a three month forecast. 

[Tom Clarke]

6 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

The contingency forecast covers November.. it's not a "winter forecast" but a three month forecast. 

Fair enough, we as planners have been privy to the Dec-Jan-Feb outlook and that is what I was referring to.

[Premiere Neige]

13 hours ago, FetchCB said:

On the Ice Roads 

Touché

[Summer Sun]

November update

December to February

• Mild conditions are around twice as likely as normal
• A cold winter is about half as likely as normal
• Impacts from cold weather are still likely
• Chances of a wet winter are slightly higher than usual
• Moderate increase in the potential for impacts from strong winds later in the period

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-djfv1secure.pdf

[damianslaw]

Preety much the standard forecast for more than 10 years. Met office contingency forecasts always go for milder..  next please..

[Summer Sun]

December update

January to March

• Compared to normal, reduced chance of a cold period as a whole
• Impacts from cold weather are possible, more likely early in the period
• Chances of a wet period are slightly higher than usual
• Moderate increase in the potential for impacts from strong winds

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-jfm-v1-secure.pdf

[BruenSryan]

Interesting, and somewhat different contingency planners forecast from the Met for NDJ 2022-23.

October update

November to January

• The likelihood of a colder three month period overall is slightly greater than normal.
• There is a reduced chance of wet conditions and impacts from heavy rainfall.
• Chances of dry conditions are greater than normal.
• Stormy conditions, and impacts from high winds, are less likely than normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ndj-v1.pdf

Edited October 31, 2022 by BruenSryan

[iceman1991]

1 hour ago, BruenSryan said:

Interesting, and somewhat different contingency planners forecast from the Met for NDJ 2022-23.

October update

November to January

• The likelihood of a colder three month period overall is slightly greater than normal.
• There is a reduced chance of wet conditions and impacts from heavy rainfall.
• Chances of dry conditions are greater than normal.
• Stormy conditions, and impacts from high winds, are less likely than normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ndj-v1.pdf

They must be confident strong signal for that