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Atlantic Storms 2013

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Looks like tomorrow early evening is the peak according to NMM on Extra:

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I'm in Donegal in North Western Ireland. It will be very interesting to see what tomorrow brings,fair bit inland hope we hit 75Mph plus

Edited by Beaufort12
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Well here it comes, ESTOFEX lead the way today - watch that triple point later:

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Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 28 Jan 2013 06:00 to Tue 29 Jan 2013 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 27 Jan 2013 22:21

Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for parts of Ireland and UK mainly for severe to damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado risk.

A level 1 was issued for the Netherlands and extreme NW Germany mainly for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Most active part of the split polar vortex resides atop the N-Atlantic Ocean which induces active and intense cyclogenesis over a broad offshore area. This pattern shift starts to affect far W-Europe during the overnight hours with rapidly rising mid-level heights spreading east. Once again, a strong impulse along the eastern fringe of the WAA regime races south over the W-C Mediterranean towards N-Africa as a 50 m/s mid-level jet moves S/SE. Out of this impulse, a closed mid-level low evolves over the Gulf of Gabes with unsettled conditions affecting most of the C-Mediterranean.

A weakening cold-core low exits Romania/Bulgaria to the SE and crosses the W-Black Sea while adjacent precipitation shield also moves offshore during the evening hours onwards.

The system of main interest will be an intense 960 hPa depression, which passes Ireland and Scotland to the north. As seen in past events over the N-Atlantic Ocean (past 24-48 h), this cyclone features a strong warm-seclusion process with phase diagrams reflecting an appropriate signature. Back-bent occlusion will be pronounced and probably the main focus for severe wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

... Ireland, UK and the S-North Sea ...

Regarding thunderstorm probabilities, the current focus shifts to the cold front, which is forecast to cross Ireland around noon. Thereafter, the occlusion point builds south (e.g. probably towards C-UK ) until the front exits UK to the east at roughly 18Z. While affecting Ireland and UK, an authentic signal of a rapidly SE-ward building dry slot exists with a tropopause fold and drying at 700 hPa being present. QPF model signals remain mixed, but there will be a low-end chance for a few deeper updrafts / potentially electrified /. Pooling signals like LL convergence, parcel layer depth and 700 hPa instability, the highest probabilities for an isolated thunderstorm event occur over S-Irland and C/S UK between 12-21 Z. Strong UVV max. /exit region of a 55 m/s 500 hPa jet max enter the scene also in time, so current plan is that a forced line of showers/isolated thunderstorms (LEWP) accompany the cold front passage, capable of mixing winds down to the surface. Kinematics are off the chart, so damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado event are possible. Some better LLCAPE sneaks in from the W and affects C/SW UK during the afternoon and evening hours, probably also increasing the tornado risk somewhat. A broad level 1 was issued, mainly for the severe to damaging wind gust risk with the expected limited DMC activity and to a lesser degree for the low-end tornado risk. In case a better CAPE environment sets-up and/or the frontal line of showers/thunderstorms becomes more vivid than currently forecast, an upgrade may be considered, given 35-40 m/s just atop the PBL.

A more widespread severe to damaging wind gust risk is forecast with the back-bent occlusion, which affects Ireland during the evening hours onwards. Despite a weakening wind field at 850 hPa, well mixed maritime air should assist in downward transport of winds from higher levels and therefore widespread severe wind gusts affect Ireland and UK during the overnight hours. Missing DMC activity means no reflection in our warning scheme.

We expanded the level 1 far east, including the S-North Sea, the Netherlands and extreme NW-Germany for the frontal passage during the latter part of the forecast. The triple point still resides beneath the exit of a 50 m/s mid-level jet maximum and despite gradually decaying instability, expected profiles still reveal a near neutral stratification and remain supportive for an ongoing forced line of showers with sporadic thunderstorm activity. Severe wind gusts will be the main risk although convectively induced gusts may become blurred by the background wind field betimes as convection weakens.

For the rest of Europe, a few spots see some isolated lightning activity, but nothing severe is anticipated.

Rather than repeat my thoughts on tonight, I've stuck it all in the convective thread for now:

http://forum.netweat...2/#entry2576581

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Edited by Coast
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NW extra NMM gusts illustrate how it could be from lunchtime:

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Edited by Coast

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Looks like it could be a a week of Atlantic domination with a few lows and a lot of wind on its way, typically:

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Here comes today's round:

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TORRO discussion:

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TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2013/001

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 10:25GMT on Monday 28th January 2013

Valid from/until: 10:25 – 23:00GMT on Monday 28th January 2013 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Cent and N Eire N Ireland N England IoM Scotland

THREATS

Isolated tornadoes; wind gusts to 70mph; occasional CG lightning; hail 10-15mm diameter

SYNOPSIS

A powerful Atlantic depression is pushing an active frontal system across the British Isles. Mid-level dry intrusion is overruning the front across western Eire, and occasional sferic activity has been noted. Convective elements, perhaps including short line segments should accompany the cold front/occlusion as it moves across the discussion area.

Strong cloud-layer shear suggests that rotation could develop within convection, and strong low-level shear (40-50 knots in places) and a fairly moist low-level airmass suggest that brief tornadoes are possible. In addition, the strong low-level flow is conducive to severe wind gusts, of 60-65mph. Post-frontal convection across Eire is also expected to move in this afternoon, and will also be strongly sheared. Low-topped supercells are possible in N Ireland and N Eire, with the risk of isolated tornadoes, wind gusts to 70 mph, and hail.

The overall situation is fairly borderline for organised severe convection so a discussion seems appropriate at this stage.

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Nasty conditions out there now, southerly gales gusting over 50mph along with very heavy rainfall.

Keep an eye on the radar some pretty active cells developing on the back of the frontal zone with sferics kicking off, that one just leaving the Dublin area has given Casemount a gust of 71mph.

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A further ESTOFEX warning covering today:

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Storm Forecast

Valid: Tue 29 Jan 2013 06:00 to Wed 30 Jan 2013 06:00 UTC

Issued: Mon 28 Jan 2013 22:34

Forecaster: KOROSEC

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A ridge / high pressure area expanding towards central Europe from the SW, while strong zonal flow establishing to its north in between the deep and dynamic upper-level trough over N Atlantic sea. Several disturbances are foreseen within this strong jet streak, with a new intense cyclone foring in the morning and later on passing just off UK to its NW. This low will affect NW UK with very strong winds, but models are not simulating any DMC so convective threat seem very low to zero. However, very strong wind field should result in rather widespread damaging non-convective winds over northern half of UK. An upper low over S Mediterranean quite rapidly moves further SSE and off our forecast map, where only some marginal convective activity is expected

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Still more to come today:

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Another nasty storm perhaps on Friday, GFS GEM and ECM have it, lots of rain and maybe some serious winds, GFS:

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Wind gusts, blimey

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Why no weather warnings out except for met office?

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Another nasty storm perhaps on Friday, GFS GEM and ECM have it, lots of rain and maybe some serious winds, GFS:

Wind gusts, blimey

Those gusts look to be more along Southern coastal areas this time. One to watch again...

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Very messy:

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Edited by Coast

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Now this would be a notable severe weather event for much of the UK should it come off, a real humdinger of a winter storm but I must admit it would be a very exciting one!

Widespread severe gales with gales over land, heavy rain for most with a risk of blizzards & drifting snow over Northern England as some colder air gets dragged down.

One to watch anyway... Posted Image

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Another one to watch in the meantime is Thursday morning, gusts exceeding 70mph over the Isle of Man and adjacent coastal areas around Northern ireland, SW Scotland and NW England, could be a taster before the biggie on Friday!

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Edited by Liam J
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I think when the hi-res models are out +48 hrs we will have a better idea of strength and areas covered, but it looks to be heading straight up the English Channel from this mornings stuff

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Obviously the charts will be subject to change over the coming days but taking a closer look at the UK during Friday evening then wind would be causing problems across S Scotland, E of Ireland, N England & down through Wales into the SW and right along the Channel.

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Edited by Liam J
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Yep, I'm mostly going from GFS as it has the detail currently (caveat: it's still a way of and therefore totally undecided) but if this came off it is a concern for flooding and the uprooting of trees with roots exposed or weakened:

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Met Office heads up:

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http://www.metoffice...Time=1359374460

Edited by Coast
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Some nasty gusts now along with relentless sideways heavy rain.

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XC Weather's latest on Friday:

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12z GFS gusts and sustained winds:

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Edited by Coast

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What's with the scare-mongering for Friday? Let's get next few days out the way since there are low pressure systems for tonight, tomorrow night and probably Thursday too.

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What's with the scare-mongering for Friday?

It's because it's down in a place where we are not so used to it or have the landscape adapted for it? It also comes at a time of high tides and lots of soggy ground, so you can imagine the potential for problems along the coast and further inland. Agreed there is still a long way to go, but it's an interesting trend.

UKMO now coming into the early hours of Friday but it's all calm at that point:

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What's with the scare-mongering for Friday? Let's get next few days out the way since there are low pressure systems for tonight, tomorrow night and probably Thursday too.

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Huge wind speeds and gradient tonight and tomorrow morning for much of Scotland- wind speeds passing 30m/s widespread across N Scotland with central pressure of 956mb crashing into the N Isles; very cold over the highlands as well with some strong gusts bringing in wintry shrs

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Wednesday sees much of Scotland, especially the north, encounter more strong winds before Thursday moves the focus south-

on Friday, the focus according to the 12z GFS appears to be for SW England and S Wales, with wind speeds over 25m/s; it then goes out into the English Channel, however, the 6z prognosis put a strong focus on the NW England and W Wales areas, before sliding SE into SW England and the Channel, so there is the potential for another shift in the storm trajectory.

The early hours of tomorrow morning have a noticeable wind gradient and are even stronger wind-wise than Friday gives for western and south-western areas, but both events are notable in their strength and should be watched

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