January 2013 CET (2012/13 Competition)

[AderynCoch]

4.3

[Stationary Front]

So difficult to predict this month. It will be typical of the UK to sustain no lengthy cold from a favourable Strat forcast. So with that in mind I will punt for 4.00 please.

[The watcher]

around 5c first half, dropping off with a colder spell 2nd half.

Final Figure: 3.8c

[Polar Maritime]

3.7c is my guess, another -11.9c would be very nice....

[marky810]

5c

[Duncan McAlister]

6.1 and hope for something better - still the main thing is that we have some dry weather.

[TonyH]

5.0c please

[Don]

Ok, what will the first month of 2013 bring? It seems that uncertainty is even greater than normal what with the upcoming SSW and how it will pan out and influence us etc? What is looking certain is that the first week of January at least is looking pretty mild and any colder weather unlikely until at least mid-month. There is also the matter of us possibly getting a west based -NAO. My best guess at the moment goes for a rather mild 5.3C. I think that we may have to wait until the latter part of January for any real cold. However, my confidence is very low and I feel that if it is wrong (which it probably will be!) that will be because of it being too high rather than too low. Worst case scenario, I'm pretty confident we'll at least see some colder snaps later on but the question is how cold and how sustained? The next few weeks will be very interesting that's for sure!

Happy New Year everyone!

[Roger J Smith]

Sadly I have already passed the time limit for editing the summary in post #70, maybe I will generate an update after midnight (which is not as dedicated as it sounds, given that midnight for me is 4 p.m.) ... but I can report that with 14 new entries and a total of 80 now, the median has stayed put (4.4) so opinion continues to be about equally divided on how quickly any colder regime might dig in. As for that -11.9 being nice, you may have noticed in the Dec CET thread that I reported on those few cases where December warmed as much as it has this year -- and one of those was that winter (1837-38) ... the first four days of Jan 1838 were mild enough so that the CET stood at 5.0 before ending at -1.5 so the period 5th-31st averaged -2.4 C.

[Thundery wintry showers]

4.4C

Edited December 31, 2012 by Thundery wintry showers

[Great Plum]

Late in the day but a cool 3.4c please...

[March Blizzard]

4C please

[igloo]

6.8c looks like it will start mild also this SSW event will not make much of a difference either

[godber]

3.5 please. hoping to see some proper cold, back end of the month. Happy new year everybody.

[Tom Montalbano]

I'll go for 3.5c, obviously a pretty mild first half and a steady cool down after mid-month.

Regards,

Tom.

[Roger J Smith]

The largest fall in CET from 1-15 to 16-31 occurred in 1950 and that was a full 7.1 C from 7.9 to 0.8 C for the two halves. The second greatest was 5.7 in 1855 when the fall was 5.4 to -0.3 C. That was followed by a cold February too.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

4.1c please

[Evening thunder]

Almost late but 4.1c please.

[feb1991blizzard]

4.2 please.

[Roger J Smith]

Table of January CET averages and extremes

with contest entries

(this will appear again on 4th with all entries added to end of 3 Jan)

11.6 .. warmest daily CET mean (3rd, 1932 and 23rd, 1834)

8.0 ... Craig Evans

7.9 ...

7.8 ...

7.7 ...

7.6 ...

7.5 ... ... ... ... ... warmest January (1916)

7.4 ...

7.3 ... ... ... ... ... second warmest (1796 & 1921)

7.2 ... Sparky1972

7.1 ... ... ... ... ... fourth warmest (1834)

7.0 ... ... ... ... ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1934 (2007)

6.9 ... robbie69

6.8 ... igloo

6.7 ...

6.6 ...

6.5 ... syed2878

6.4 ...

6.3 ... coram

6.2 ... Backtrack

6.1 ... Gimmesomesnow, Duncan McAlister

6.0 ... Styx, AtlanticFlamethrower

5.9 ... Continental Climate

5.8 ... Roger J Smith

5.7 ... reef, Bobby

5.6 ... Gavin

5.5 ... mark4, Carl46Wrexham

5.4 ... Januarysnow, Froze were the Days

5.3 ...The PIT, Don

5.2 ...

5.1 ... Jack Wales

5.0 ... Marky 810, TonyH

4.9 ... Sunlover, DAVID SNOW, DR Hosking

4.8 ... SteveB, Milhouse

4.7 ... Mark Neal, Kain ... ... ... ... --- average 2001-12 ---- (4.65)

4.6 ... Yozzer, Aaron, Terminal Moraine, fozfoster

4.5 ... DR(S)NO, A Winter's Tale

4.4 ... summer blizzard, Ninman, pjl20101, Thundery Winter Showers ... ... ... ... ... ... --- average 1981-2010 -----

4.3 ... Stargazer, damianslaw, Aderyn Coch

4.2 ... feb1991blizzard ... ... ... ... ... --- average 1971-2000 -----

4.1 ... Kentish Man, RAIN RAIN RAIN, Stormmad26

4.0 ... easy-oasy, trickydicky, sundog, Ferryhill Weather, Stationary Front, March Blizzard

3.9 ... virtualsphere, Harve ... ... ... ... --- average 1901-2000 ----

3.8 ... lesaro, Norrance, The watcher ... ... ... ...--- average 1961-1990 -----

3.7 ... Polar Maritime

3.6 ... Muffelchen, chionomaniac

3.5 ... mulzy, godber, TomSE20

3.4 ... LomondSnowstorm, seabreeze86, Great Plum

3.3 ...

3.2 ... Isolated Frost, Midlands Ice Age, BornFromTheVoid ... ... ... ... --- average 1659-2012 ----- (3.24)

3.1 ... sn0wman, shuggee, Cirrostratus

3.0 ... Rybris Ponce ... ... ... ... --- average 1801-1900 ----

2.9 ... Gael_Force ... ... ... ... --- average 1701-1800 ----

2.8 ...

2.7 ... Polar Gael, Mark Bayley

2.6 ... ... ... ... ... --- average 1659-1700 ----

2.5 ... 22nov10blast, Skeggy blizzard, DiagonalRedLine, alexisj9, sebastiaan1973

2.4 ... Weather-history

2.3 ...

2.2 ... Snowstorm1

2.1 ...

2.0 ...

1.9 ...

1.8 ...

1.7 ... mikeocarroll

1.6 ...

1.5 ...

1.4 ... ... ... ... coldest past 25 yrs (2010)

1.3 ...

1.2 ...

1.1 ...

1.0 ...

0.9 ...

0.8 ... ... ... ... coldest past 30 yrs (1985, 1987)

0.7 ...

0.6 ...

0.5 ...

0.4 ...

0.3 ...

0.2 ...

0.1 ...

0.0 ...

-0.1 ..

-0.2 .. BARRY

-0.3 ..

-0.4 .. ... ... ... last subzero (1979)

-0.5 ..

-0.6 ..

-0.7 ..

-0.8 ..

-0.9 ..

-1.0 .. ... ... ... twelfth coldest (1695)

-1.1 ..

-1.2 ..

-1.3 .. AWD

-1.4 .. ... ... ... eleventh coldest (1940)

-1.5 .. ... ... ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)

-1.6 .. ... ... ... seventh coldest (1776)

-1.7 ..

-1.8 ..

-1.9 ..

-2.0 .. ... ... ... sixth coldest (1716)

-2.1 .. ... ... ... fifth coldest, and coldest 20th century (1963)

-2.2 ..

-2.3 ..

-2.4 ..

-2.5 ..

-2.6 ..

-2.7 ..

-2.8 .. ... ... ... fourth coldest (1740)

-2.9 .. ... ... ... third coldest (1814)

-3.0 .. ... ... ... second coldest (1684)

-3.1 .. ... ... ... coldest January or month (1795)

-7.7 ... coldest daily CET mean past 30 yrs (12th, 1987)

-8.4 ... coldest daily CET mean in past 50 yrs (23rd, 1963)

-11.9 ... coldest daily CET mean, 20th 1838

___________________________________________________________

Now 89 entries, the median is 4.2 but the range and clustering suggest a split in opinion about when or if colder air is coming. Table to be updated again after close of entries on morning of 4th January. I will edit in as many as possible to this post later "today" and edit the entry count and median.

So far, this table is for on-time entries but for any edit:

* one day late (etc)

[Candice]

Could I have 5.2 please

[J10]

4.1

Cannot believe I am late again.

[DeepSnow]

Woops, completely forgot about it for this month, i'll go for 4.8C and hope for much colder!!

[Paul T]

3.3 cheers!

[Alex]

4.9c for me please