Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting - 20th Dec

[Zakos]

Direct hit for the UK on this run.

The flow will not be sustained as it replaced by a westerly flow

But it looks like the secondary low will drag cold air across the Uk again as it tracks across it.

06z..

Thanks corrected now

Edited December 20, 2012 by Zakos

[MR EXTREMES]

my only concern is the azores high can this be sucked up towards the north alantic?

because its looking a little close for comfort and there a bugger to get rid of if it sets in over the uk.

atleast it would be sunny though.

[Panayiotis]

Direct hit for the UK on this run.

The flow will not be sustained as it replaced by a westerly flow

But it looks like the secondary low will drag cold air across the Uk again as it tracks across it.

Thanks corrected now

Dont worry ill delete it now! Yes it seems like another reload from the north once the low movers east. Very nice for the time period and it seems that the models are feeling Christmasy! Edited December 20, 2012 by Panayiotis

[124alex]

Dont worry ill delete it now! Yes it seems like another reload from the north one the low movers east. Very nice for the time period and it seems that the models are feeling Christmasy!

still five days away yet!

[MR EXTREMES]

Dont worry ill delete it now! Yes it seems like another reload from the north one the low movers east. Very nice for the time period and it seems that the models are feeling Christmasy!

more like dont look now here comes the azore high to ruin the party.

back to sw flow.

Edited December 20, 2012 by model rollercoaster

[Isolated Frost]

-35c uppers touch Svalbard on a bitter, long stretched northerly for Christmas eve. Only around -25c uppers for Christmas day on the island. Incredible surge of arctic air.

[LomondSnowstorm]

A very nasty looking storm on the 27th on this run:

Almost looks like the famous 'Second destruction of Hamburg' chart that never happened:

Edited December 20, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[MR EXTREMES]

cold for the north with this dangerous little feature

[SMU]

Still not the greatest outlook from the models, no high level blocking in the outlook-

However things perhaps cold enough to turn Wintry over the NW & scotland over the festive period- it just depenbds how far east we get the upper trough-

Certainly worth a punt on a white Xmas for glasgow.

S

[nick sussex]

The UKMO isn't too bad at 120 or 144hrs, something else might be brewing upstream.

Can we force a split in some of that energy heading east.

[mountain shadow]

Not a bad GFS run. Big -AO with copious cold air spilling into the Atlantic.

The Azores high is not a player. Very seasonal.

[liam79]

Not a bad GFS run. Big -AO with copious cold air spilling into the Atlantic.

The Azores high is not a player. Very seasonal.

Quite a wintry picture for the north especially, if this run came off there could be a fair few snow falls over the post christmas week, though they will generally be transient affairs

[SnowObsessor90]

Would anyone say that GFS FI is just heading back to default as per usual or is that just basically how things are looking at the minute?

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z is trying to bring some christmas cheer next week with several reloads of polar maritime/arctic air with wintry showers pushing south and east across the uk with frosty nights and icy patches, the north of the uk is best placed to keep the cold air for longer and the jet appears to be on a more southerly track. It's a good run compared to the mild dross the models have been showing recently, a lot depends on how far east the main trough can push and whether we can see a nice build of pressure in the atlantic. Some areas could have snow showers and frosty nights from boxing day onwards and some areas on the northern side of the lows could have snow rather than rain as the unsettled weather spreads in off the atlantic so at least a colder christmas week is looking more probable which would be great news.

[Methuselah]

Although the GHP is 'only' a surface feature and, assuming the PV behaves more-or-less as the Strat forecasts seem to suggest, interesting things could be in the offing, further down the line...That said, FI looks mighty unpredictable, to me?

[Panayiotis]

Would anyone say that GFS FI is just heading back to default as per usual or is that just basically how things are looking at the minute?

Possibly but 2 weeks ago Fi was showing what Fi shows on the GFS now (not exacly) but as we know its completely different, so probably the GFS is going back to default. Edited December 20, 2012 by Panayiotis

[Methuselah]

Possibly but 2 weeks ago Fi was showing what Fi shows on the GFS now (not exacly) but as we know its completely different, so probably the GFS is going back to default.

What 'default' is that, P?

[Summer Sun]

Widespread snow as the year comes to an end if this comes off

A snowy final day of 2012 for the north, that would keep a few in on New Years eve if that came off

[Panayiotis]

What 'default' is that, P?

Ha 'P' i like that. Well its seems that the Gfs default is to bringing the PV to Greeland and it seems to bring the Azores high over/near us with it bringing warm SW winds. Ive been watching the models really carefully this winter, even in Fi and it seems to always do this. But when the time comes its completely different. I will do a test as evidence, i will save today's 12z 300hrs and compare it to the 2nd of January when that date comes. Edited December 20, 2012 by Panayiotis

[Frosty.]

This would shock the chief forecaster at the metoffice who composed todays anything but wintry update. It's still game on for a dig of cold air south next week into the new year, the fat lady won't be singing today anyway.

Edited December 20, 2012 by Frosty039

[Zakos]

Would anyone say that GFS FI is just heading back to default as per usual or is that just basically how things are looking at the minute?

well....

The end of FI is a complete default.

As for the rest of the low res, it is perfectly plausible scenario. The track of the lows will decide how cold the UK gets, this will change on every run

It looks like being a fairly mobile pattern, at least initially. If we can get the jet stream just a tad further south, we are in business. We also need to see better ridging in the Atlantic if we are to see deep, blocked cold.

At 120 hours the forecast is a considerable upgrade on both the UKMO and GFS. after then, who knows?

The Arctic high has not made it to Greenland yet. Once it does we will have a much clearer picture as to what type of cold spell we will experience.I think at the very least low level snow to Northern areas. At best, perhaps eventually a full on northerly.

[Tim Bland]

UKMO looks good for a Nw feed and snow showers for Christmas....small upgrades peeps, wouldn't take much to get that low over scanfi to be further SE brining down a northerly for the big day.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1021

Edited December 20, 2012 by Tim Bland

[SnowObsessor90]

Ha 'P' i like that Well its seems that the Gfs defaults to bringing the PV to Greeland and, and it seems to bring the Azores high into the equation.

God forbid if the ECM32 dayer shows similar tomorrow due it not yet properly picking up on the potential strat warming effects, this place will even more unbearable than it usually is lol

[Iceaxecrampon]

Generally got to be an upgrade - Cumbria near my IMBY - apologies for being self centred - looks "interesting" on the 27th

Blizzards down to 1200ft asl?

All is not lost.....

Ian

[Panayiotis]

So far the ensembles are out to 156hrs and its really from Christmas day that the UK starts to get cold. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?ech=6&mode=0&modele=0

Edited December 20, 2012 by Panayiotis