The Midlands Regional Winter Discussion

[Gord]

Can't keep up with the model thread this morning. Charts from failed easterlies from the past are now being posted alongside the usual ones from 1947/1987 etc. All I want to see are charts from 2013! I know what happened in those other years!

Anyway, that's todays rant out of the way...and it's not about the mild and sunny weather in January. I moan about it when it appears in the models beforehand, but when it actually gets here it feels quite nice!

[Gord]

Lovely sunny morning here. Sat24 shows were the sunniest region right now. Long may it continue this.

We're actually the sunniest region during a mild spell and not when there's snow around for once! Wow!

So everything can fall into place for the West Midlands!

[Costa Del Fal]

Indeed, Gord, weve just been taking down the Christmas lights outside and I did it in T shirt and shorts!!! At any other season, this would be a chilly day but for January its EXTREMELY PLEASANT out there. As mild as Cornwall right now too here at 11c.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Can't keep up with the model thread this morning. Charts from failed easterlies from the past are now being posted alongside the usual ones from 1947/1987 etc. All I want to see are charts from 2013! I know what happened in those other years!

Anyway, that's todays rant out of the way...and it's not about the mild and sunny weather in January. I moan about it when it appears in the models beforehand, but when it actually gets here it feels quite nice!

thats also an increasing trend in the modern erà, mild sunny days Jan to March, was not possible before the mid 90's, these few days have been Spring

chris fawkes on bbc red button said turning cold end of the week, and a sign of whats to come, I reckon now it might turn cold now, very similar to that 06Z shows, washout friday then cold due to high pressure similar to last Jan

[Gord]

Why do you always have to mention this modern thingy every time?

I've just found several prolonged mild winters at the start of the 20th Century..and in the 1950s, and there are quite a few of them too. I bet if I look further I can find other decades too. They are hardly modern. Mild winters are not exclusive to the past 20 years.

When does modern start for you?

Looks like we've always had the chance of a mild winter!

Edited January 5, 2013 by Gord

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Why do you always have to mention this modern thingy every time?

I've just found several prolonged mild winters at the start of the 20th Century..and in the 1950s, and there are quite a few of them too. I bet if I look further I can find other decades too. They are hardly modern. Mild winters are not exclusive to the past 20 years.

When does modern start for you?

Looks like we've always had the chance of a mild winter!

because it is so obvious our winters have got milder, climate change etc, would say it started in 2000,( yeah only 13 years but has to start sometime)

I wouldnt be surprised either if our summers are getting miles cooler, August 2006 start of modern summer? not long enough yet but who knows

[Gord]

Climate change is a global thing, not a UK thing. You need to look at weather patterns all over the World over a sustained period of time. 13 years is not enough! The evidence is coming together but I don't think it's enough to say that our tiny island is seeing any change...not yet anyway. It looks like it is for a bit then we get a month or two that surprises us...and that's always been the way in our country. 1947 was a strange one, it had both extremes of cold and hot within one year!

I just looked through the CET for Jans and Febs going back to 1900. We always seem to get groups of mild winters clustered together and they have been happening for a while. If we went 20 years without one colder month then I would maybe start to think that we are entering some kind of new winter. It's a very interesting debate and one worth having...but I need more years to see if we really are in a pattern of milder winters. You may have a valid point about our winters getting milder...but you can't use it to weather forecast individual events or patterns. (not yet anyway!)

This is all my personal point of view and not a generic statement by the way!

Edited January 5, 2013 by Gord

[Ian Brown]

because it is so obvious our winters have got milder, climate change etc, would say it started in 2000,( yeah only 13 years but has to start sometime)

I wouldnt be surprised either if our summers are getting miles cooler, August 2006 start of modern summer? not long enough yet but who knows

We had a colder period of winters between 1978 and 1987, colder than the long term averages but not exceptionally so. The real change began in the late eighties, with the winter months up to 2009 the mildest block since records began being kept in the 1700s. Hence the term.........TMW

[I remember Atlantic 252]

What about that ECMWF Ian then? hopefully not like Dec 5th, Atlantic slightly weaker mid Jan than Mid Dec, but I still favour 4-5 days of cold high pressure then back to zonal (but maybe cold again in Feb!) very like last Jan/Feb where Jan delivered 5 very harsh unthawed frosts in a row 13-17th

[TonyH]

A look at the coming week in detail:

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4541-weather-prospects-for-the-midlands-and-west-wales-monday-7th-to-sunday-13th-january-2013/

[Costa Del Fal]

Blast! Looks like all the cold and snow will arrive as soon as im leaving for Cornwall. Unless its a severe spell, I will see nothing this Winter now unless Easter throws a surprise.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Could probably do with one of those Northerly setups like in November 2005 where Cornwall received a pasting of snow, although there could also be a possibility of a channel/French Low delivering for your area (similar to what the 0Z ECMWF shows) I suppose as longs as the uppers/surface temperatures/dewpoints are cold enough. Let's just hope this cold spell can offer something for everyone to enjoy.

[Costa Del Fal]

Geez, no posts in here for almost 2 days now. Think it shows how uninterested we are in Winter now. I for one couldnt care less tbh now im soon back in Cornwall! Im looking forward to Spring and Summer now.

[Rose]

Geez, no posts in here for almost 2 days now. Think it shows how uninterested we are in Winter now. I for one couldnt care less tbh now im soon back in Cornwall! Im looking forward to Spring and Summer now.

I know how you feel, it's so depressing this lack of snow! Don't be downhearted as it's still early in the season & if this next week doesn't do it then february will! my son is in Cornwall, Falmouth.

[chapmanraven]

It's nit just the lack of snow and cold that's depressing, it's these dark damp days.

I'm still keeping fingers crossed the coming cold is deeper than forecast and we get some fluffy white stuff, failing that cold, crisp days with blue skys.

[dvdfjojo]

Saturday's looking a little bit tasty now for the Midlands - let's hope we wake up to a bit of the white stuff :-)

[Costa Del Fal]

Interesting to note the rain is intensifying over the Midlands at the moment.

[Wadey]

10 day at a glance looks sweet for my area wv5

[Eugene]

West midland conurbationers if you don't see much snow in your urban jungles don't forget the snow paradise of the Cotswolds is just around the corner

[weatherguy]

Fingers crossed for the weekend eh?

[Costa Del Fal]

Quite annoyed winter seems to start the second I leave for Cornwall but maybe if things are cold enough even I may see a little snow, even if in small amounts. Even in 2010 im told there covering in Falmouth was barely measurable.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Quite annoyed winter seems to start the second I leave for Cornwall but maybe if things are cold enough even I may see a little snow, even if in small amounts. Even in 2010 im told there covering in Falmouth was barely measurable.

Snowfest showing for you on Saturday, unless of course you are in cornwall

[smethwickgg102]

Typical Reading away on Saturday hope it can hold off until I get home

[Gord]

Dank, foggy, rainy. It's so 2012!

[Shezale coventry]

if what the models are showing at the moment comes off what kind of weather can we expect in the midlands?