Scotland Regional Discussion 18th December 2012>

[NUT]

No rain unlike yesterday but still cloudy and mild (was some blue sky trying to break through earlier and the sun might have made an appearance but didn't quite manage it before the cloud crept in again)

[November13]

The snow is just waiting for me to move house N13...three weeks from now the blizzards can begin Actually, make that three weeks tomorrow at about 8pm, will have my boys home so it would be good to get snowed in for a fortnight just after they arrive.

Yeh it's not so much the snow I miss. It's just a bit of crisp winter sunshine which would cheer us all up. I think I would rather have sunny and cold any day than just this grey murk.

[A Winter's Tale]

I didn't even use my shovel at the start of December as it would have been just for the sake of it. The snow we had was so minimal it would have been silly. We bought our shovel in November 2011 and it has not been used.Must be a record. I am trying to stay positive but so far the winter has been very diasapointing. The temperatures are grim at present. We need a big change in the middle of Jan to make it a reasonable winter. This reminds me of mid September weather. There are buds coming out on our rose bush!

December 2012 has come out with a mean of 2.3C which makes puts it into the top 30 coldest for Scotland - (0.8C colder than December 2011, and on a par with 2008). Mean maximum and minimum was 4.9C and -0.2C. Quite sunny too with a total of 31.3 hrs and wet too with a rainfall total of 212.7mm. 13.9 days with an air frost which is the 19th highest since 1910. Compare that to a mean of 5.8C in 1988, mean maximum of 8.3C in the same year and a mean minimum of 3.8C in 1934. And a mere 2.2 days with an air frost in 1988. All in all, it has been a pretty good start to winter. Here, we had a larger snow depth and more notable snow events in 2011 but overall last month was in my opinion a better winter month. The second half was much milder but not as mild as 2011 and there were a couple of snow events to mention post Christmas. Considering how December isn't renowned for the same sort of winter weather that relate to post Christmas - then December 2012 came out as a very fair mont. We are no better or worse off than we were at this time 4 years ago. Yes we are now entering a mild spell of weather but in most winter's you'd expect periods such as this so it's hardly unusual. There is certainly the potential for snow and cold prospects to improve, possibly dramatically, as we go through January and god knows what this February could be like - can it be the best Febraury since 1986? Come review in March, I think we could look back at December, January and February and possibly say that it was more than a reasonable winter - but there's still a very long way to go until we get to that point. I know that this current sort of weather isn't everyone's cup of tea, but hey, it's the weather - try and enjoy it!

[BleakMidwinter]

December 2012 has come out with a mean of 2.3C which makes puts it into the top 30 coldest for Scotland - (0.8C colder than December 2011, and on a par with 2008).

I went through to the kitchen to tell my folks this, and as I was talking I glanced out the window and saw a big red Oriental Poppy in full flower...

I think weather must be some of the shortest-term memory there is. We forget so easily what there was a month ago - it was cold, it was snowy, it was lamping weather... but it gets lost in the mildness of the last week or so...

[Northernlights]

Just been for a walk and have to report that winter is alive and well apart from a fair weather sky which has a quite a cold look about for air of tropical origin I found ground in a grass field behind a north facing wood still frozen to several inches. Temperature has fallen in the last couple of hours from 10c to 7c so a mostly clear sky in the depth of winter soon allows the air above the ground to chill even if it is from a mild source. Have also to report the cows stayed out longer again today scavenging the field. Cow model says winter not over yet.

[November13]

Yeh Norrance i no what you are saying. However the average for my local station was something like 4.3 compared to 4.7 the year before for December. I think I had a week of lying snow but it was not a snow event as such. Just a few days of light snow and certainly not disruptive. We had a fairly mild November so it depends when you count winter as starting. The current mild spell has lasted since the 28th Dec currently 7-8days but predicted to stay with us until at least the 12th. So roughly 16 days. Also we had 8 frost days in Dec 2011 compared to 2012 which we had 9. So if Dec 11 was mild then I would class this as a fairly benign winter so far. Bearing in mind we are currently 6c higher than we should be at present it is very mild for what is the coldest month of our year. I always say that winter is not a 2 week cold snap it is a 3 month event with significant cold weeks in each month. January may yet deliver but I think we might have to wait until mid month which is a pity. I think the real telling thing is the snow shovel has yet to be used and it is now 14 months old.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The models are clearly struggling tonight with no real clarity but then that was always to be expected. Very interesting period coming up though....

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

The models are clearly struggling tonight with no real clarity

Other than generally doon.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Other than generally doon.

Very true, downward trend is quite evident in the ensembles, along with increasing heights across the pole. Specifics are more difficult to pin down though at this stage.

[Snowplough33]

Don't want to get too drawn in at this early stage, but the MT is in good form today. Great to hear the input from Ian (Exeters input). Nothing garunteed at this stage but fascinating model watching and discussion despite only understanding 50% at best, but have a good handle of whos posts to read and whos to skip. Very addictive.

[Benvironment]

Well that was interesting. At the end of the BBC weather forecast at half ten, John Hammond ended his piece with a throwaway comment about how 'interesting things' are happening high up in the atmosphere and that it's something to keep an eye on. I don't think I can ever remember SSW being mentioned (albeit indirectly) in a BBC1 forecast before.....but then, John Hammond does seem to be an extreme/cold weather enthusiast keen to try and educate folk about what's going on.

[blitzen]

I have noticed that Steve M. on the MOD keeps referring to 1985? My memory isn't that good, so I can't remember if it was a snowy year here. Looking at the archives tho', it looks like it was more of a southern event?

[Hairy Celt]

I have noticed that Steve M. on the MOD keeps referring to 1985? My memory isn't that good, so I can't remember if it was a snowy year here. Looking at the archives tho', it looks like it was more of a southern event?

Too right. I remember some mental snow in the (English) Midlands that winter.

A question: how does the MO come up with a figure of 1330.7mm rain in 'the UK' for 2012? Is it an average of somethings or what?

[Northernlights]

Noticed in the model thread that they were saying not to tell your family of the future predictions in case they were jinxed.But with Aurora Storm home for Cristmas thats an impossibility in this house with 2 laptops going. And anyhow I have to tap into my daughters brilliant mind to get her observations!!!!!!! Seems real winter is getting closer tonight.

Aurora Storm just managed to find the John Hammond forecast on i player, Hats off to Netweather for leading the way.

Edited January 3, 2013 by Northernlights

[blitzen]

Too right. I remember some mental snow in the (English) Midlands that winter.

A question: how does the MO come up with a figure of 1330.7mm rain in 'the UK' for 2012? Is it an average of somethings or what?

Well I just assumed that it had to be an average really. I did here the comment that not all areas were as wet as others.

[lorenzo]

Think that superstition got well tested when John Hammond went on the telly and mentioned the stratosphere warming !

This post from GP is poetry.. and just the start..

Going to be some amazing charts coming up soon...

[LomondSnowstorm]

I have noticed that Steve M. on the MOD keeps referring to 1985? My memory isn't that good, so I can't remember if it was a snowy year here. Looking at the archives tho', it looks like it was more of a southern event?

Not sure, it was a sub zero month here though, so I reckon we did get some snowfall out of it. Hard to call the specifics of the synoptics this far out though, but I reckon that if things keep going like the pub run did we'll have multiple attempts at a good cold spell from a lot of different directions....

[blitzen]

Certainly is exciting watching now. I just hope that it doesn't all go Pete Tong...as in near miss for us. Somebody somewhere on our latitude is going to get the holy grail tho'.

Does the prospect of severe weather worry you re possible problems on the farm NL? Or is it a case of forewarned is forearmed?

[A Winter's Tale]

Some excellent developments and input today across the forum - it really is great to have some input from the Met office via Fergie (not to be confused with Sir Alex) and even John Hammond hinted at developments further up in the atmosphere. I'll echo lorenzo's post that some super charts should be coming up. We've seen an improvement day by day with the ensembles with a downward trend. The outlook is very uncertain as you'd expect with a pattern change - the SSW puts the cats amongst the pigeons and the models will toy with various evolutions. There's even the possibility of some excellent synoptic appearing at an unexpected and earlier timeframe.

Par exemple, you wouldn't have seen this sort of scenario in yesterday's output.

There'll be many more twists and turns to come as there's still a long way to go until we firm up on a plausible evolution but anything could crop up in the models from now on. And I suppose anything could happen later this month and into February. There door is open to an exceptional period like Nov/Dec 2010, or something a little less extreme and more broken up. Hopefully it won't end up being something as relatively dissapointing as February 2012 where we missed out.

Steve Murr has referred to 1985. January 1985 indeed was a cold month - the joint 8th coldest in Scotland with a mean of 0.2C. Quite a sunny month too with a total of 38.6 hrs and the 9th driest with a rainfall total of 82.7mm.

Interesting synoptics....

Not exactly a classic Greenland high but this sort of synoptic certainly would deliver some seasonal and cold conditions.

Hmmm.....interesting......

[LomondSnowstorm]

Some excellent developments and input today across the forum - it really is great to have some input from the Met office via Fergie (not to be confused with Sir Alex) and even John Hammond hinted at developments further up in the atmosphere. I'll echo lorenzo's post that some super charts should be coming up. We've seen an improvement day by day with the ensembles with a downward trend. The outlook is very uncertain as you'd expect with a pattern change - the SSW puts the cats amongst the pigeons and the models will toy with various evolutions. There's even the possibility of some excellent synoptic appearing at an unexpected and earlier timeframe.

Par exemple, you wouldn't have seen this sort of scenario in yesterday's output.

There'll be many more twists and turns to come as there's still a long way to go until we firm up on a plausible evolution but anything could crop up in the models from now on. And I suppose anything could happen later this month and into February. There door is open to an exceptional period like Nov/Dec 2010, or something a little less extreme and more broken up. Hopefully it won't end up being something as relatively dissapointing as February 2012 where we missed out.

Steve Murr has referred to 1985. January 1985 indeed was a cold month - the joint 8th coldest in Scotland with a mean of 0.2C. Quite a sunny month too with a total of 38.6 hrs and the 9th driest with a rainfall total of 82.7mm.

Interesting synoptics....

Not exactly a classic Greenland high but this sort of synoptic certainly would deliver some seasonal and cold conditions.

Hmmm.....interesting......

Some excellent developments and input today across the forum - it really is great to have some input from the Met office via Fergie (not to be confused with Sir Alex) and even John Hammond hinted at developments further up in the atmosphere. I'll echo lorenzo's post that some super charts should be coming up. We've seen an improvement day by day with the ensembles with a downward trend. The outlook is very uncertain as you'd expect with a pattern change - the SSW puts the cats amongst the pigeons and the models will toy with various evolutions. There's even the possibility of some excellent synoptic appearing at an unexpected and earlier timeframe.

Par exemple, you wouldn't have seen this sort of scenario in yesterday's output.

There'll be many more twists and turns to come as there's still a long way to go until we firm up on a plausible evolution but anything could crop up in the models from now on. And I suppose anything could happen later this month and into February. There door is open to an exceptional period like Nov/Dec 2010, or something a little less extreme and more broken up. Hopefully it won't end up being something as relatively dissapointing as February 2012 where we missed out.

Steve Murr has referred to 1985. January 1985 indeed was a cold month - the joint 8th coldest in Scotland with a mean of 0.2C. Quite a sunny month too with a total of 38.6 hrs and the 9th driest with a rainfall total of 82.7mm.

Interesting synoptics....

Not exactly a classic Greenland high but this sort of synoptic certainly would deliver some seasonal and cold conditions.

Hmmm.....interesting......

I think the fact that there are arguments over whether the above month or the winters of 78/79, 81/82 and 86/87 are the closest analogues to what's coming speaks for itself. The exact synoptics are going to be very January/ February 2013 like whatever they are in the same way 09/10 or 46/47 or even nonsense winters like 88/89 did but most signs at present point to cold...

[Northernlights]

Certainly is exciting watching now. I just hope that it doesn't all go Pete Tong...as in near miss for us. Somebody somewhere on our latitude is going to get the holy grail tho'.

Does the prospect of severe weather worry you re possible problems on the farm NL? Or is it a case of forewarned is forearmed?

Have been doing most of the ploughing/dung spreading before the 20th November these past few years since 2009 as discussions with Aurora Storm(especially with regard to this poor summer of 2012) and here on netweather have led me to believe that sixties type winters (with disruptive very cold outbreaks) which I grew up in are more likely when all outside operations were completed by late November as the ground quite often froze up then until mid March or later. So it is just a return to an old routine

Refer you to my post 825 where today we were hand pulling a few loads of neeps to preserve the stored ones.All bedding and feeding can be mostly done undercover and the wintering sheep will be in a field next to the steading for easy feeding in snow. Freezer still full and plenty sticks/coal and diesel for tractor. So forewarned is forearmed especially when you have a keen interest in the weather.

[Snowangel-MK]

A fresh thread for post Hogmanay awaits you all here…….