Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -18z 17/12/12

[Panayiotis]

Like I have been saying all day, it looks like a very mild christmas coming up, yes it's not what most of us want but as the models have been showing the uk covered in green 850's, it cannot be ignored. I'm more optimiistic about a cold spell in the new year once the strat warming takes effect though. It now looks as though even the far north of scotland will miss out on a few snow flakes too, don't you just love the models. On the bright side, with the aid of a few stiff drinks, the models will look a lot better, cheers.

Hmmm i dont think you should say that with confidence, as 12 out of the 20 ensembles show -0C upper temperature over the UK, which isnt mild nor cold, none of them either are going for very mild neither. Not to put you down as things can change just telling you what the models are telling me atm. http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&ech=180 Perturbation 14 floats my boat! http://176.31.229.22...ns-14-0-192.png Edited December 18, 2012 by panayiotis

[Blizzardof82]

Hmmm i dont think you should say that with confidence, as 12 out of the 20 ensembles show -0C upper temperature over the UK, which isnt mild nor cold, none of them either are going for very mild neither. Not to put you down as things can change just telling you what the models are telling me atm. http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&ech=180 Perturbation 14 floats my boat! http://176.31.229.22...ns-14-0-192.png

Perturbation 14, yes please I think too many people are heading for the razor blades while there is still so much potential. We are only 18 days in to winter and I am reading too many winter is over posts

[Iceni]

Pardon the pun, but I'm warming to the idea of much milder air.

It'll allow us all to turn the central heating off - which must be costing everyone a fortune?

It's going to be a very non-seasonal Christmas Day, by the looks of things - with the 18z the most pronounced. However, as many have observed, statistically the British Isles has more White Easters, than it does White Christmases:

Indeed. Heating is so expensive for pensioners (and everyone else) so maybe we'll have a respite from the dreaded fuel bills this Christmas. We've already had some pretty low temperatures this winter (which is only 2 weeks old) so I'm content with some dry weather and sunshine. It's still pretty chilly at night and I've had ice on the car windows even though it's supposed to be a blow torch.

The toys are still in my pram and there they'll stay until the end of January.

[syed2878]

i agree lot of peeps r posting w.over although we r only 18 days into w2012-13 is because peeps red to much in to the background signals and by the looks of things they stil r. What's mor quite a few longrange models r going for a zonal winter. Cant post charts guys due to reasons beyond my control. Happy christmas and new year to all at nw.

[osmposm]

Remember MOST historical UK Winter events "Never" started till January.

Not sure about "MOST", it's pretty evenly balanced...56, 85, 86, 87 & 91 didn't, certainly, but 1962-3, 1978-9 and 1981-2 (and more recent ones) were all under way by the year's end at the latest. Even the famously 'late' 1946-7 had been preceded in mid-Dec by some less extreme cold with lying snow even in central London.

But I take your point that at this stage anything is still possible - though the 'unheralded' later cold events tend to be shorter-lived, on the whole.

[swfc]

102 hrs on the oz is interesting!!!!!

[Zenarcher]

114 hours on the GFS 00z Atlantic lows a lot weaker and energy going under the block,

Lets see where this leads.

[swfc]

well maybe a white xmas for some there !!!!!watch fi,pv looks smashed lol.ukmo not as good to be fair

Edited December 18, 2012 by swfc

[Zakos]

Dumbfounded after the GFS. such a brilliant upgrade. Where to begin?

Merry christmas!

Very big turnaround this morning from the models, jet hundreds of miles further south

Unfortunately, the Russian high retreats and this means it looks like being a fairly brief cold spell, with the potential to deliver a white xmas to some areas.

What is of great interest to me is the big fat arctic high that grows throughout the run. I saw this days ago on the models, and I have been tracking its formation. It is starting to shape up very nicely now. I wager it will setup shop over Greenland just after Christmas.

Here it is on the GFS:

A very interesting feature North east of Alaska.

I think we could easily get a Greenland high from this as shown above.

Right now, focus will of course be on Christmas day. My thoughts remain the same that they have for days, there is definitely potential for cold and snowy weather throughout the UK on xmas day. the most likely area to see snow is North east Scotland.However, Snow could fall anywhere, it is too far out to tell at this stage.

Unfortunately there is little chance of a sustained easterly, as the Russian high is going to retreat. I firmly believe however that a major pattern change is going to occur, with a very significant negative Arctic oscillation.

GFS

UKMO

While the GFS is clearly better for cold in the short term, the UKMO has a more favourable position of the Arctic high. Look in particular over Greenland. A much better height profile, and one Im sure would lead to a very potent northerly soon after.

As much as I would love to see a white Christmas, I would prefer the UKMO to verify. It screams potential in terms of a prolonged cold spell IMO.

Edited December 18, 2012 by Zakos

[TAFKAP]

Dumbfounded after the GFS. such a brilliant upgrade. Where to begin?

Merry christmas!

Very big turnaround this morning from the models, jet hundreds of miles further south

Unfortunately, the Russian high retreats and this means it looks like being a fairly brief cold spell, with the potential to deliver a white xmas to some areas.

What is of great interest to me is the big fat arctic high that grows throughout the run. I saw this days ago on the models, and I have been tracking its formation. It is starting to shape up very nicely now. I wager it will setup shop over Greenland just after Christmas.

Here it is on the GFS:

A very interesting feature North east of Alaska.

I think we could easily get a Greenland high from this as shown above.

Right now, focus will of course be on Christmas day. My thoughts remain the same that they have for days, there is definitely potential for cold and snowy weather throughout the UK on xmas day. the most likely area to see snow is North east Scotland.However, Snow could fall anywhere, it is too far out to tell at this stage.

Unfortunately there is little chance of a sustained easterly, as the Russian high is going to retreat. I firmly believe however that a major pattern change is going to occur, with a very significant negative Arctic oscillation.

GFS

UKMO

While the GFS is clearly better for cold in the short term, the UKMO has a more favourable position of the Arctic high. Look in particular over Greenland. A much better height profile, and one Im sure would lead to a very potent northerly soon after.

As much as I would love to see a white Christmas, I would prefer the UKMO to verify. It screams potential in terms of a prolonged cold spell IMO.

A very promising turnaround by the models and plenty of potential for the future too. Some will pooh pooh this output but the models have been flip flopping and floundering so much lately that this outcome is likely as any. Loving the GFS precip type chart for Xmas Day and I suspect a very interesting new year will follow!

[The PIT]

GFS maybe out on it's own here so don't get carried away yet. UKMO says no so it's now over to the ECM too see what that thinks.

[Snowmad79]

The GFS does present some interesting options now from 144hr including a massive upgrade for a white Christmas for a lot of people, not just Scotland and the Northeast. The Netweather snow chart posted by Zakos only gives a quick glimpse of whats on offer. Even Ireland and the SW of the UK could bag something half decent.

Anyway, the UKMO is a slight downgrade at 72hr compared to yesterdays 96hr and the GFS has a slight upgrade with the block being that little bit more robust to our north and north east whilst also flattening the developing ridge more in the Atlantic and keeping the jet flatter. Eventually, the Atlantic low passes SE through the UK into europe . Having said that, we still need to stick with output beyond 72hr being FI and being liable to be tweaked.

Wonder what the ECM is going to throw up this morning.

ECM looking good to 72hr also.

[SLEETY]

Surprise,surprise,UKMO not interested in any easterly,is it ever though.

Last year it made a complete mess of the easterly in early Feb,being miles out and backtracking at the last minute,so I'm not giving up yet

[Dave Kightley]

height rises towards greenland on his run. not at all bad. would be interesting to see where it would go on the ukmo

Edited December 18, 2012 by Dave Kightley

[HotCuppa]

I have to really laugh at some of the comments in some of these threads.

Some people are actually dumb founded FI never comes off and that is what gives me a good chuckle.

That being said though, it would not surprise me in the slightest if we end up with yet another warmer than average christmas day again.

I wouldn't be surprised if it broke last year's record warm record for my area of 15C, which was recorded on christmas day 2011.

I use a good rule of thumb. Never go beyond 96 hours at this time of year, because beyond this point is no man's land.

Since anything beyond 96hrs is unreliable I think it's bit daft to say the rest of the month is a wash out personally. You just need to keep watching

the charts. There is a lot of snow and cold above 60 degrees..and it will only be a matter of time before some of that ends up over us..

Good Record broken:

2010: Coldest Winter ever -20C

-------------------------------------------

Bad Record broken

2011: Warmest winter ever

2012: No snow inside 12 months for the first time in 17 years.

Edited December 18, 2012 by HotCuppa

[BARRY]

I now await the 12z with baited breath all this stratosphere warming talk seems to be filtering in to the models.

[swfc]

hmmm ecm says nope at 144 hrs!!!!

[cooling climate]

The trend continues apace this morning for heights over the Arctic and a cold

set up developing between Christmas and the new year.

[Dave Kightley]

i wonder if this was on the ukmo seasonal model last month. we what looled zonal but below average with troughing to our west. eitjer that or there all very useless indeed. time will tell.

[IDO]

Little support for the GFS op:

http://cdn.nwstatic....erdeenshire.png

That is for those cold uppers in the north around Christmas Day. If it is an outlier up there then down south is likely to be similarly unlikely. Hopefully a trend though.

The mean from the GEFS:

http://modeles.meteo...-21-1-192.png?0

The ECM says cyclonic westerlies:

http://www.meteociel...1-168.GIF?18-12

Ditto UKMO:

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?18-06

Another false dawn by the GFS? Still seven days to go, so who knows. Positive signs elsewhere:

Taken from Matt Hugo on the strat forum:

"NB: EC 32 day update shows higher pressure once again become more influential across Greenland and surrounding areas with time as low pressure dominates to the W or SW, so an increasing signal for a -AO and a -NAO pattern. The ECMWF 32 day forecast for the MJO takes it out of phase 1 and firmly into phase 2 and 3 as well FYI."

Edited December 18, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[lindy2017]

The trend continues apace this morning for heights over the Arctic and a cold

set up developing between Christmas and the new year.

Ive got 90% snow risk xmas day ..........................

[Iceaxecrampon]

Pardon the pun, but I'm warming to the idea of much milder air.

It'll allow us all to turn the central heating off - which must be costing everyone a fortune?

It's going to be a very non-seasonal Christmas Day, by the looks of things - with the 18z the most pronounced. However, as many have observed, statistically the British Isles has more White Easters, than it does White Christmases:

......maybe?

Ian

[mountain shadow]

Its back to looking longer term for snow and the portion of the PV dropping into Scandinavia looks mighty good.

Maybe it will come off this time.?

[snow drift]

ECM and GFS at T168. The position of the low makes such a difference. GFS will be what most will want to verify. But will it??

[Iceaxecrampon]

Ok.... it's T+168 and has appeared from pretty much nowhere - but can't see too much up with this.....

Ian