Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -18z 17/12/12

[Radiating Dendrite]

And a drought during what will probably be the wettest year on record lol ......i find Met Office forecasts are usually based on what the Computer Models are currently showing , (which is fair enough) But when the Models change the Met office do , in November they had December down as being well below average in all areas ........

They did not forecast a drought.

In March we were in a drought in certain areas!

I am happy for people to criticise, but it has to be factually correct

[NL]

The models are what they are models, numerical computers throwing out over 13 trillion calculations per second and still they can be so far off 5 to 6 days down the line. As Dave(TEITS) often says its all down to the chaos theory and we are still way,way off from producing algorithm's that can make any sense of it.

[Pixel]

I love it when you lot get like this ...... As soon as you start writing the whole of January off the Models usually pick up on something big on the next run ....

please can we have more 'winters over' posts then

[Heisenberg]

I was only going by what the met office experts are saying beyond boxing day, as far as they are concerned that's it for cold weather after the 26th.

The Ecm 00z shows some polar maritime air over the uk on boxing day and remaining chilly even by thursday but then the pattern becomes flatter with temps returning closer to average, cold air flirting with the far north of scotland for most of next week though, as for this weeks undercut, northeast scotland gets it, especially tomorrow and saturday with snow on hills but heavy rain on low ground.

Are these the same met office experts who said we are going to be getting a beasterly? Hmm...think we should read between the lines. With Jan Feb and March, I dont think we can say winter is over....

[snowmadchrisuk]

They did not forecast a drought.

In March we were in a drought in certain areas!

I am happy for people to criticise, but it has to be factually correct

At the beginning of the year they were expecting drier than average , they had a report from a Met office forecaster during the News at the time , If i can find a link ill pop it in the general thread later. anyway my main point being if the Models start to show something Colder over the next few days there outlook will change again .. and they mention uncertainties in there 16-32 day forecasts anyway ..... As we all know , only the weather gods know what till really happen.

one link is here , Mods please remove to correct thread if nes ... http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/30/met-office-april-forecast-drought-impacts-in-the-coming-months-are-virtually-inevitable/

Edited December 20, 2012 by snowmadchrisuk

[Frosty.]

The same experts who forecasted a BBQ summer.!!

Yes but they did that several months in adavace, this is just about next month so it's not really the same is it? Anyway, I don't want to defend the metoffice, I want them to indicate a cold month ahead. The models currently don't look that wintry, just very soggy.

Edited December 20, 2012 by Frosty039

[Chess01]

So much negativity on here . People need to get a grip havent people learned that you can only count on the models for a few days the rest will change . At least there is cold forecast for the next few days after the rain clears but after nobody knows

[johnholmes]

lots of topic again with the usual bashing of the Met O-fair enough but its not really telling any of us dropping in here what the models are telling us.

I did see the 00z output but have been out so hoped to have some kind of summary of the 06z-too much to expect on this page anyway, so best I go and look for myself!

I do despair of some of you-have you not got another life away from the pc and Net Wx?

lots of topic again with the usual bashing of the Met O-fair enough but its not really telling any of us dropping in here what the models are telling us.

I did see the 00z output but have been out so hoped to have some kind of summary of the 06z-too much to expect on this page anyway, so best I go and look for myself!

I do despair of some of you-have you not got another life away from the pc and Net Wx?

My subsequent post will NOT be in this thread either

[WhiteFox]

Yes but they did that several months in adavace, this is just about next month so it's not really the same is it?

No, but as has been pointed out, their forecasts are also often wrong for the 15+ day period. Nobody can forecast conditions with any degree of certainy past day 5; at best, the models will give you an idea of the pattern from days 5-10, but beyond that, it really is very generalistic and dependent on the outcome of the forecasts prior to that. Plenty of times I see people post "Bin the 18z"; there is far more reason to bin Met Office long range forecasts!

[Chris K]

I try to stay on topic, but seeing posts in the type/style of: "the same experts that forecast this but went wrong?"... is quite irritating. They go by what the range of models are showing as the most likely outcome at the time with some human input as well.

Quite frankly if any of you think that weather forecasting organisations should be heavily critisised for changing their minds close to certain events you need a new interest. Many people said we were going to get the "beast from the east" including posters from this very forum. I wonder how many of you criticising the Met Office read their follow up blog explaining why their forecast had changed?

I doubt some have, because I did and thought it was reasonable and well explained, hence I don't jump on the bandwagon of bashing The Met Office, or any other organisations/forecasters for that matter.

Patience is needed from some in here. Wait until the end of Winter before reviewing how forecasts have all panned out, because it won't be until then when most will review and evaluate how their own forecasts performed. If they didnt go well, they usually say why...

Edited December 20, 2012 by Chris K

[Buriedundersnow]

.........oh dear, not even a straw clutch?

i have been optimistic up till now the last time the undercut failed i still thought we had a really good chance of a cold spell coming off but now i just cant see it we've had our chance and the atlantic has gave us a heavy kick in the delicates and told us to jolly well push off

Edited December 20, 2012 by IanM
less of that, it upsets the sensitive readers - ta

[Zakos]

Yes but they did that several months in adavace, this is just about next month so it's not really the same is it? Anyway, I don't want to defend the metoffice, I want them to indicate a cold month ahead.

Cast your mind back to this February. Did the met office not discount the risk of any snow in their forecast, only for there to be a quite significant cold spell in England? Did they not also get the month we are currently in wrong aswell?

The met office do not have mystical powers to predict weather 30 days in advance - nobody does. No model can predict weather that far ahead, not even their "super-computer"

Now if we had something like this on the cards-

Then we could be fairly confident of no significant and sustained cold for up to at least 15 days.

There is so much potential in the current output

We are in negative AO phase, with the NAO looking like it could finally become sufficiently negative to support a cold spell for the UK.

There is nothing extreme being shown on the models just yet, but I feel there are definitely good prospects for low level snow at the very least in northern areas after Christmas

I said it in February, I will say it again now, the met office are going to regret not including snow in their monthly forecast.

Even the GFS, which has a tendency to "default" has a completely pulverised vortex and -ve AO right up to 384 hours on both the 00z and the 06z. Absolutely no sign whatsoever of a return to zonal weather.

It baffles me as to how the met office can write off the next 30 days of weather.

Edited December 20, 2012 by Zakos

[Buriedundersnow]

theres no point in people moaning and having a rant about forecasters on here just because its all saying on paper we r gonna get cold weather doesnt mean we r 100% sure on to get cold weather and its not the forecasters fault.

if u were watching the football and before hand gary neville was to say right folks man utd look likely to hump southampton and u go put a bet on and then man utd get beat 2-0 u wouldnt be slating gary neville its just something that happens.

we should lay off people who give us forecasts it aint there fault the weather didnt turn out like they did and they way some people go on about them its like u think they just forgot to flip the switch that gives us cold and it just isnt that simple.

[AWD]

Might as well just merge this thread with the Model Mayhem/Moan/Ramp thread. Can't see any difference between the two.

[Village]

The latest GFS ops run is trying to suggest that a much colder upper pool is coming further southwest around new year.

As I said earlier today we do need to watch this development carefully. Quite how the Met Office can jump from a December prediction of very cold earlier in the month to a warm wet and windy for a whole month forward beats me. They should know better IMO. The runs synthetics are least predictable at times of maximum and minimum insolation....thats right now.

One cannot reliably predict one month ahead based on a ten day forward synthetic run.

[Methuselah]

The latest GFS ops run is trying to suggest that a much colder upper pool is coming further southwest around new year.

As I said earlier today we do need to watch this development carefully. Quite how the Met Office can jump from a December prediction of very cold earlier in the month to a warm wet and windy for a whole month forward beats me. They should know better IMO. The runs synthetics are least predictable at times of maximum and minimum insolation....thats right now.

One cannot reliably predict one month ahead based on a ten day forward synthetic run.

The same way the we all did?

[Paul]

Locking this now - new thread online for the 12z's shortly

New thread now open