Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 10th Dec

[Timmytour]

Is there any chance we could borrow that Atlantic shield Southern Norway has and put it up west of Ireland? Looks pretty damn effective to me

[Buriedundersnow]

You go into his profile and view his content:

http://forum.netweat...-glacier-point/

But we're way off topic here, please can we keep it to the model output in this thread..

thanks for the help paul

[Paul]

Locking this shortly to start a fresh thread..

[karlos1983]

looks like the High over Russia grits its teeth and says "I'm heading west" from around 114

[A Winter's Tale]

Good afternoon everyone. It's quite an active and seasonal story for the British Isles for tonight and tomorrow in particular with a mixture of fog, frost, snow and ice before we see another side to winter weather with a mix of wind, rain, hill snow and average/slightly above average temperatures followed by a changeable weekend.

This evening is shaping up to a be a cold and settled one with varying weather conditions from region to region but it seems like there'll be some mist and fog developing in eastern parts of England; some rain in Ireland moving northwards towards western Scotland; frost and ice patches in many places - particulary in north eastern Scotland where there have been showers today; a mixture of cloudy, partly cloudy or clear skies.

Tonight, minimum values should range between -3 and 2C and potentially we could see lows of -10C in a few favoured spots in the Scottish Highlands. It seems likely there could be fog in eastern parts of England during the night. Skies may be clear in eastern parts of Scotland and in many parts of England and Wales although there could be some local variations. Skies may be cloudier in western parts of Scotland as an area of precipitation moves northwards and there could be snowfall for western and even some central areas - possibly accumilations up to 5cm in some places. Along the south coast of England an area of rain may skirt the southern counties and introducing a possible risk of ice in places.

For Thursday morning - there could still be some snowfall in western and central parts of Scotland aswell as fog continuing in parts of eastern England but it should generally be a clear morning although there might be some rain near the channel coast. A cold and icy start just about everywhere.

Into the afternoon and snow in parts of Scotland should begin to fizzle out whilst skies across many parts of England could be clear - however the further south you go perhaps the more cloud cover there is. A cold afternoon too with some places having another ice day - general highs of -1 to 4C.

However on Thursday night we see a change - a series of weather fronts await in the atlantic and it seems likely that there'll be heavy and persistent rain for Ireland and south western parts of England and Wales overnight aswell as an introducting to milder temperatures but still generally cold with - particulary in Scotland - with lows of -3 to 2C.

This particulary band of heavy, persistent rain should cross north eastwards over the British Isles on Monday as much of Scotland and some eastern parts of England experience a wet Monday - there could be some particulary heavy rain in Scotland and significant snowfall for the Grampian Highlands which is fantastic news for the ski resorts such as the Cairngorm. Maximum temperatures of 4 to 11C.

As the front clears away on Friday night - some fresh showery weather should prevail with some heavy but short-lived rainfall in places. It should be a mostly cloudy night - lows of 1 to 7C.

Saturday should be a fresh, windy day with quite strong westerly winds feeding showers - sometimes prolonged - into western areas. Certainly milder than of late with general highs of 5 to 11C.

The fresh, changeable conditions should continue through Saturday night with some heavy showers in a number of western areas and possibly along the channel coastline aswell. Possibly a night with mostly cloudy skies. Lows of 3 to 8C.

Sunday is looking fairly similar to Saturday with SWly winds bringing showers into western areas with highs of 6 to 10C.

At the moment I'd say that the outlook towards Christmas remains well in the balance with quite a complicated outlook with uncertainty regarding key and influential players - such as the area of high pressure over Siberia, Canada and Iberia; the nature of the track of low pressure systems that could bring potentially windy and wet weather in the run-up to Christmas and also the polar vortex aswell.

By default I would expect generally unsettled weather to prevail in the run-up to Christmas bringing quite active and changeable weather - temperatures close to average but possibly a little above average in the south in the warm sector and a little below average in the north with some hill snow. But I'm open to a variety of different outlooks and outcomes giving how the timescale and the variability and uncertainty that you'd expect at this stage.

[Paul]

Locking this one now.

New thread here