Model Output Discussion - 8th December Onwards

[Paul]

Now im convinced it will turn milder but the period of interest for me is what happens into the following week.

Agree on this, although the question is also how much milder, and how far north in my mind. And again all this tallies with the ec32 modelling of late.

[bluearmy]

not a channel low but if it didnt deepen so much it would be running a bit further south. all in all a run to end the day which again tends to step back a bit from all out mobility. the cold isnt far away to our ne.

[Davey80]

I think we have a new trend this evening from ECM with GFS now following. I only see it being milder for a few days now. Expect some cracking runs next week but will it be third time lucky

[TEITS]

Yep the storm is going under.

[Gavin Hannah]

It's going for an undercut!

[weatherguy]

Hello...

We may have an undercut on our hands!

[Wayneywoo]

More a channel hurricane! now we know that the gfs winds up these little features only to downgrade them nearer the time, so I think it's a good thing and mean that the gfs wants to be too progressive?

That would be extreme to get something like that and yes, we know the GFS tends to wind up LP's in to dartboards. Slightly less pressure and 200-300miles south and everyone's a winner!

[nick sussex]

Whats fasinating though Nick is historically at this timeframe we tend to find the models give the edge to the atlantic to win the battle but this tends to change once inside +72.

Now im convinced it will turn milder but the period of interest for me is what happens into the following week.

I have to say I'm shocked, looking at the earlier part of the run it looked like the Atlantic was at a very unfavourable angle and then somehow manages to develop hints of an undercut.

Still that shortwave is deep and looks dreadful in terms of wind and rain, hopefully this is the GFS overblowing things.

[Gavin Hannah]

More a channel hurricane! now we know that the gfs winds up these little features only to downgrade them nearer the time, so I think it's a good thing and mean that the gfs wants to be too progressive?

Perhaps a channel tornado!

[EML Network]

Time to batten down the hatches, my god this is one deadly little bugger !

[Dave Kightley]

Anywhere but there will do. east or south the better

[Timmytour]

Whats fasinating though Nick is historically at this timeframe we tend to find the models give the edge to the atlantic to win the battle but this tends to change once inside +72.

and model watchers tend to give more of an edge to easterlies :-)

But the deepness of the lows, including the dangerous looking one over the west country at T177 is perhaps an indication that the east is winding itself up

[SE Blizzards]

Bullseye at 186h......

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

[karyo]

How about a hurricane - lol

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1

I hope this low is overblown by the gfs. By the way, look at the cold uppers moving over Shetland ! Much closer than on the 12z.

Karyo

[Davey80]

Azores high is trying to poke its nose in. Wonder if it can make friends with the high to the NE now that the big low is stuck west.

[jessandjon]

and model watchers tend to give more of an edge to easterlies :-)

But the deepness of the lows, including the dangerous looking one over the west country at T177 is perhaps an indication that the east is winding itself up

What do you mean by dangerous? Should I worry, yes I know not model related but I don't like the word dangerous

[cyclonic happiness]

That low is hilarious! Look how it just slows down and stops over the top of us whilst keeping all it's energy and wind speed ........doh!

The GFS must think we're mugs lol!

Does look like it's trying for an undercut though, that's the main positive.

[Timmytour]

Amazing to tap "prev run" and see the difference....especially where it's seemed so minimal in the last few runs

[Paul]

Time to batten down the hatches, my god this is one deadly little bugger !

That doesn't look especially pleasant that's for sure, although I'd put it as a very low probability at this point (about as low probability as the ECM extreme beast from the east in the week, but that's another tale!!)

[snow1975]

Heights rising in Greenland? Interesting times ahead!

Edited December 8, 2012 by snow1975

[bobbydog]

as there's little difference so far in this run, i'll just re-post this-

hmm.... looking at the latest runs again, mainly GFS and ECM, lots of mention of the atlantic breaking through and sweeping the block away. "return to zonal" etc. however, (and i'm fairly sure our more expert members have noticed but if its been mentioned i've missed it) the atlantic DOES NOT break through. it seems to throw low after low at us, which we do feel the effects of, but they are absorbed and dissipated. like breaking waves on a beach. at no point do i see low pressure break through the high pressure over scandi. at some point, something has to give and if it's not the block then it has to be the jet. in FI, the GFS has an azores high linking to the block giving us another teasing easterly. the ECM hints at the large LP system (which due to the fewer frames appears to be just one big one bouncing about in the north atlantic) trying to find a way out and heading south east. either way would bring cold weather back our way. how long it takes is anyones guess but i dont think this is over by a long shot.

comments please......

[HighPressure]

I don't normally comment on the models thread as my knowledge is limited, but what switch around in the last 48hrs? The beast from the East has metamorphosed itself into a monster from the West - from snow to floods - from ice days to double figure temps.

And I thought I was getting a handle on this ???

[Timmytour]

What do you mean by dangerous? Should I worry, yes I know not model related but I don't like the word dangerous

I don't think it would be at all pleasant if it panned out like that.....mind yo, I don't think it will exactly pan out like that

[Gavin Hannah]

Haha, it looks like are only salvation lies in FI land... apart from those interesting storm features, nothing to shout about for us coldies. Loving the "Tornado".

[beng]

I hope this low is overblown by the gfs. By the way, look at the cold uppers moving over Shetland ! Much closer than on the 12z.

Karyo

Well I've lost count of the times I've seen both GFS and ECM model these super storms at t180+ - yet to see one verify. Hope for the sake of my garden fence that this pattern continues.

Yes cold never really goes very far. Hopefully 18z has picked up on something and is not drunk.