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Model Output Discussion - 8th December Onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Latest UKMO fax chart:

96hrs

post-1206-0-41359500-1355004416_thumb.gi

Looks like a hard frost for many areas Tuesday night but quite sunny on Wednesday, cloud edging into Ireland later.

Still waiting for the 120hrs to come out.

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Whether Idle Contributor

Whether Idle

Posted
  • Location: Dover. Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, sun, thunder, storms, frosts, summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Dover. Kent
Posted

The 12 z JMA is a nightmare of gales and massive rainfall totals for the west pf the UK. Bye bye block, hello floodingsad.png

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted

Yep couldn't really be at a worse angle at present

It's this that I'm really focusing on at present, just hoping we can get it to push a little further south and become slightly more stretched NW-SE in shape, similar to the UKMO 0z. It's pretty futile at the moment I must say, but there's every chance of change IMO right up to +48 in the current scheme of things.

It's a big ask though

SK

The problem is that the trough to the north/northeast links with the Atlantic low and brings the southwesterly. If it wasn't for that we'd have a better chance.

Karyo

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Davey80 Newbie

Davey80

Posted
  • Location: Canary Wharf, Docklands, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heatwave, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Canary Wharf, Docklands, London
Posted

The low is further west than the 12z so far and is really winding up south of Greenland. Signs it will struggle against the block

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted

Much better 18z in regards to positioning of the low. Out to 120 its nnw of the 12z by about 500miles. If similar changes occur we could end up with the low ending up far enough west to not engulf the UK in mild air

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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted

The Atlantic low is intensifying and staying slightly further west upto T126......signs of the East exerting a stronger influence?

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

the 18z isnt a million miles away from some trough disruption at T132. the shortwave in the west atlantic isnt quite engaged with the main circulation and the jet is driving into iberia. if we could generate a circulation on that trough then we would drag in continental flow by day 6................................

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davehsug Veteran

davehsug

Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
Posted (edited)

Maybe this is for the technical thread, please move mods if it is. Regarding the anomaly charts. What are they anomalies from? Is it from a "zero" state or an anomaly from what might be regarded as the average or normal pressure for the areas? I've always wondered when a positive anomaly is shown over Greenland for example, is this meaning much higher pressure than normal over Greenland, which could still actually mean low heights, or an actual high pressure?

Edited by Paul
No need to revisit all that.
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beng Enthusiast

beng

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
Posted (edited)

The low is further west than the 12z so far and is really winding up south of Greenland. Signs it will struggle against the block

Yep - I've seen enough of this run - what's interesting is that winds go from SW to SE between t108 and t132 - at least at the surface - which is an indication of a massive struggle being modeled. If the modeling is slightly too progressive (more than possible), then things might still get interesting at the end of next week.

Edited by beng
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Davey80 Newbie

Davey80

Posted
  • Location: Canary Wharf, Docklands, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heatwave, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Canary Wharf, Docklands, London
Posted

Pretty sure its getting sucked back northwest at 144hrs

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Great fight on the 18Z with a deep atlantic LP but the Siberian block is attempting to move W.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

Regardless of the outcome I always enjoy watching these battles.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

Oh stop this now GFS!

I just want to move on! Those shortwaves forming are a further sign that the low is having a hard time making eastwards progress. One wonders what the outcome might be if there wasn't so much residual energy left behind as the main PV headed towards Siberia.

Watch out for the next shortwave where will it go under or over.

Edited by nick sussex
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Gavin Hannah Community Regular

Gavin Hannah

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
Posted (edited)

The good thing about the 18Z run is that we remain under the 0deg dam line with a lot more cooler air to tap into rather than mild air being drawn up from the south. A definite cooler run so far.

The UK is lining up to be in the middle of the mother of all battleground scenarios!

h850t850eu.png

Edited by IBringTheHammer
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Davey80 Newbie

Davey80

Posted
  • Location: Canary Wharf, Docklands, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heatwave, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Canary Wharf, Docklands, London
Posted

The whole thing is stuck from 102hrs so far. Massive massive tight low much further west by hundreds of miles and a stronger russian high. Neither will give in.

We may have southwest winds for a few days but a slight turn to the Southeast from a freezing europe will change the weather type very quickly.

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted

Oh stop this now GFS!

I just want to move on! Those shortwaves forming are a further sign that the low is having a hard time making eastwards progress. One wonders what the outcome might be if there wasn't so much residual energy left behind as the main PV headed towards Siberia.

Think we still have a few more runs to endure yet before knowing our fate. If the upgrades between 12z and 18z continued till this time tomorrow the beast from the east could be back by the end if next week. Battleground scenario with the cold winning anyone? ;)

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Oh stop this now GFS!

I just want to move on! Those shortwaves forming are a further sign that the low is having a hard time making eastwards progress. One wonders what the outcome might be if there wasn't so much residual energy left behind as the main PV headed towards Siberia.

Whats fasinating though Nick is historically at this timeframe we tend to find the models give the edge to the atlantic to win the battle but this tends to change once inside +72.

Now im convinced it will turn milder but the period of interest for me is what happens into the following week.

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cyclonic happiness Accomplished

cyclonic happiness

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
Posted

Channel Low anyone?!

More a channel hurricane! now we know that the gfs winds up these little features only to downgrade them nearer the time, so I think it's a good thing and mean that the gfs wants to be too progressive?
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