Hurricane Sandy

[Paul]

I think we need to keep this thread to the specific topic of hurricane Sandy and its impacts please, feel free to open another thread about the issuing of watches etc etc

[kold weather]

Still looking totally tropical at the moment, the front is wrapping around and I don't think it'll be long before it undergoes transition, but for now its still firing some decent convection near the center.

High tide down the Hudson is 3.28 eastern time, so the biggest surge risk for New York should really be ramping up over the next couple of hours.

Looks like strengthening is happening, system is tightening up.

[Zenarcher]

Gusts inland are now over 50mph and continue to increase, also Mount Washington which always has high wind speeds will be interesting to watch how high the gusts get there currently 77mph. http://windmapper.com/NE/observations

Edited October 29, 2012 by weathermaster

[Staffordshire]

Sorry but i dont understand how this is 'the strongest storm recorded' yet isnt even a confirmed CAT 2? surely a CAT 5, would be stronger

[gottolovethisweather]

Still looking totally tropical at the moment, the front is wrapping around and I don't think it'll be long before it undergoes transition, but for now its still firing some decent convection near the center.

High tide down the Hudson is 3.28 eastern time, so the biggest surge risk for New York should really be ramping up over the next couple of hours.

Looks like strengthening is happening, system is tightening up.

Hi kold, I've seen others refer to whether the storm is tropical or warm-cored, cold-cored etc. by the time it makes landfall. Can somebody enlighten me as to what impact this would have on its ferocity and why it is regarded as noteworthy?

[Steve C]

Sorry but i dont understand how this is 'the strongest storm recorded' yet isnt even a confirmed CAT 2? surely a CAT 5, would be stronger

Probably means the lowest pressure recorded in the area.

[Paul]

Sandy 'crisis map' from Google has a whole load of info within it:

http://google.org/crisismap/2012-sandy

[Nick F]

Intensifying Sandy, no official hurricane watches / warnings, i find bizarre

The Storm Prediction Center has a watch, warning and advisory display - which has links through to coastal flood warning/watches and high wind advisories:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/

You can then link through these to regional forecasts and warning from the regional NWS centers.

Forecast from NWS at Mount Holly in New Jersey:

http://forecast.weat...0&highlight=off

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1013 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

DANGEROUS HURRICANE SANDY WILL TURN WEST AND SLAM ASHORE ALONG

THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING...WEAKENING

RAPIDLY OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY

MIGRATING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH CANADIAN

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES DURING THE

WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR OUR AREA...

CURRENT DOPPLER VELOCITY SHOWS A WIDE SWATH OF 60-80 KNOTS ABOUT

3-4KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY SOUTH INTO THE

SOUTHERN DELAWARE. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION SET UP AROUND

2500 FEET SO SOME OF THESE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE HAVING A

VERY HARD TIME BREAKING THROUGH TO THE SURFACE...A VERY GOOD

THING! THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL, IF IT FALLS WITHIN THE LOCATIONS OF

STRONGER WINDS, DRAG THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE AND WE WILL START

TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD 50MPH PLUS GUSTS.

STILL EXPECTING MAXIMUM PUMMEL BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z...BEFORE AND

JUST AFTER SANDY`S PASSAGE. WE ARE SEEING GFS BL WINDS AT 18Z OF

40 TO 48 KT WITH 70 TO 75 KNOTS JUST 25 MILES OFFSHORE. AT 00Z 50

TO 55 KT NORTH AND SOUTH PORTIONS WITH LESS IN BETWEEN NEAR THE

AXIS OF SANDY`S PROJECTED PATH...THEN THE SOUTHERLY PUMMEL ALONG

THE COAST BY 03Z WITH BL WIND 60 TO 65 KTS! THE ADDITION OF SOME

COLDER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AS SANDY MOVE ONSHORE, WILL

INCREASE THE LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS, EVEN

WITHOUT THE HEAVIER SHOWERS, TO REACH THE SURFACE!

WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG STORM SURGE ALONG THE COATS AND

DEL BAY...THIS IS DISCUSSED IN THE SECTION BELOW. RAINFALL TODAY

1-4 INCHES FAR NORTH AND 5 TO 8 INCHES FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...

SANDY WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO

MOVE WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. DANGEROUS WINDS WILL CONTINUE

THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME DECREASE IN WINDS

LATE. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT FROM N/NE EARLY THIS

EVENING TO S/SE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS 60 TO 85

MPH EARLY THEN DECREASE LATE. HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE

EARLY...THEN TAPER DOWN LATE. ADDITIONS QPF RANGES FROM 0.5 TO 1.0

NORTH UP TO 2 INCHES SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

500MB: SANDYS EVOLUTION INTO A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED IN WESTERN

PENNSYLVANIA TO START THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL VERY SLOWLY

WEAKEN NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY THE WEEKEND.

Edited October 29, 2012 by Nick F

[Iceberg]

Sorry but i dont understand how this is 'the strongest storm recorded' yet isnt even a confirmed CAT 2? surely a CAT 5, would be stronger

strongest storm for this location...should be added.

Latest visual shows the very good centre that kold mentioned. It's losing 1c of sst now for roughly each hr and is probably on ssts of 23c so baroclonic forces will be at play in the next 2-4 hrs imho.

Storm surge has been officially increased to 12-15ft for parts of NYC and surrounds now..

cdo is about the size of new jersey now.

[gottolovethisweather]

Sorry but i dont understand how this is 'the strongest storm recorded' yet isnt even a confirmed CAT 2? surely a CAT 5, would be stronger

I'm sure others will clarify that and I am as confused by the statement as you are. The report I heard referred to its intensity i.e 943hpa or whatever, so maybe CAT 2s and above have never been that deep.

Anyway, back to the reports.

[weatherobsuk]

Bloomberg hinting that the worst of the surge will start to take effect 8pm EST (or midnight our time.)

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?stn=8518750%20The%20Battery,%20NY&type=Tide%20Data

[kold weather]

Bloomberg hinting that the worst of the surge will start to take effect 8pm EST (or midnight our time.)

http://tidesandcurre...&type=Tide Data

Yep, high tide for the Battery (far SW point of Manhatten) is at 8.53pm. Should be timed almost perfectly for the highest storm surge timing...not good!

[Coast]

Live streaming radar feed here:

http://www.myfoxtampabay.com/category/235313/live-radar-stream

Predicted wave heights:

The track after it passes through the main conurbations is still uncertain:

[Iceberg]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44025&unit=E&tz=STN

bouy near long island

showing how the wave height is increasingly massively also the massive hrly pressure drop.

[kold weather]

Worth noting that the water level for Battery is slowly increasing, we nearly went off the scale during the last high tide, and since then the surge level has probably increased 2ft or so looking at the obs.

[Iceberg]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44025&unit=E&tz=STN

bouy near long island

showing how the wave height is increasingly massively also the massive hrly pressure drop.

[knocker]

Sat at 1555Z

[BornFromTheVoid]

Sorry but i dont understand how this is 'the strongest storm recorded' yet isnt even a confirmed CAT 2? surely a CAT 5, would be stronger

I think it's that the size of the tropical storm force wind field, and the total energy in the system makes it the strongest tropical Atlantic system on record. I think I've seen 222 tera joules mentioned for Sandy, compared to Katrina at 117 tera joules.

Will try find the source...

EDIT: 222 tera joules, not over 300...

Edited October 29, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[Coast]

It does look like a whopper!

Probability of tropical storm winds to 9 hours lead

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[Paul]

Ocean City..

http://twitpic.com/b8jccr

[Steve C]

Well I'll be tuned in to a 24 hour news channel, when I'm home. Maybe a bit ghoulish, but I do find these events fascinating.

[SalopWatcher]

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/chasercam-live

Think someone put this earlier, but an interesting stream... currently in New Jersey and heading for New York.. before the bridges and tunnels all close at 2pm...

All wile relaying the latest news in a more weather geek fashion than the news... also a little bit hyper at times...

Look bad enough where he is now let alone in 6 hours

[Sainsbo]

Virginia beach has already had 8.23 inches of rain from Sandy, and still raining heavily.

http://news.sky.com/story/1004129/live-updates-hurricane-sandy-threatens-us

[Iceberg]

We have a little wait as the plane doing to recon is flying out and a fresh plane is on route.

Surges are increase but ware level going down as tide drops. Next high tide is roughly mid night time uk with landfall approx 4-5am uk time so awhile off yet.

Next high tide is the key one

[lorenzo]

Another from Ocean City, NJ. Why are these people still there?

Sandy in comparison to Europe, quite something to see the scale.