Hurricane Sandy

[knocker]

A cold front will stall over western Pennsylvania through tonight. Sandy will continue to churn to the north-northeast parallel to the southeast Coast through the weekend, before turning to the northwest toward the DelMarVA Peninsula and New Jersey Coast on Monday. The very large storm is expected to become extratropical as it plows westward through the northern Mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday, and continues to impact the region through mid-week. The primary hazards associated with this potentially historic and devastating storm include significant flooding from very heavy rainfall and widespread damaging winds.

See Full Discussion

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/

[Roger J Smith]

Model consensus at this time is for landfall in New Jersey on Monday night. Explosive development in the hybrid to post-tropical phase is expected, winds could gust over 100 mph in areas very close to if not right in metro NYC, NJ, Long Island, even parts of CT and RI. Some chance of a landfall further south (especially following only Euro guidance) with landfall near Delaware Bay. This would come earlier as a result, mid-day Monday.

Heaviest rainfalls will be somewhat inland in meso-scale frontal zone north-south through w NJ and e PA, potential for local amounts of 500 mm (20 in) and widespread 200-300 mm. River flooding a definite hazard in the Delaware River drainage and probably nearby such as Susquehanna, Lehigh etc.

Storm surge a huge concern because it's full moon on Monday 29th. Long Island Sound, coastal inlets of NJ, south coast Long Island, Delaware Bay, and Narragansett Bay are all prone to severe tidal surges if landfall is to their south.

This is top of the news cycle on American TV but warnings are being handed off from NHC to regional offices as the hurricane is expected to be non-tropical by landfall. This is causing some confusion and a lot of weather forum criticism (in America). However the local TV mets are all over this and only a complete conehead would be unaware that the storm of the year if not much longer period is on the way in for Monday.

[Somerset Squall]

Sandy is the deadliest storm of the season with the toll now at 48, surpassing Isaac. And she really isn't done yet

Sandy was a brutal storm for the Caribbean, with a total death toll that now stands at 48. The death toll is highest in Haiti, with 34 dead. The toll will likely rise as remote areas cut off from communications are reached. Cuban state media is reporting that eleven people were killed on Cuba, and damage was heavy, with 35,000 homes damaged or destroyed. Cuba is probably the most hurricane-prepared nation in the world, and it is unusual for them to experience such a high death toll in a hurricane. Sandy was Cuba's deadliest hurricane since Category 5 Hurricane Dennis killed sixteen people in 2005. Sandy is also being blamed for 1 death in Jamaica, 1 in the Bahamas, and 1 in Puerto Rico

Edited October 27, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[peterf]

any live tv links yet lads?

[Sainsbo]

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/10/26/where-to-watch-sandy-webcams-from-carolinas-outer-banks-to-times-square/ Here's some webcams for when hings start to get interesting.

[andy100]

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520

MILES...835 KM

[knocker]

Latest radar from Moorehead City N. Carolina.

[Iceberg]

Quick round up but no pics as I am back on the phone again.

Very very good model agreement now on how things are planned to play out. There are still some doom predictions but it's probably best to ignore those for now as the model concsensus is bad enough.

Sandy due to hit approx 20-50 miles south of NYC.

Te northern component of the storm is due to be the worst putting long island and NYC in the worst of the storm.

The storm then moves sw down toward Philly etc at. Much reduced rate and slowly degraded.

Approx pressure on land fall is 930-940.

Approx max winds winds are 850mb-100 kts 900mb-90 kts ands surface approx 80 kts.

Approx max rainfall is s.new jersey at 11-12 inches, NYC 4 inches etc.

Storm surge and waves are due to be worst from the north coast of long island down to mid jersey with south long island into the by and NYC worst hit.

At the moment the storm itself looks very skeletal with little precip still due to shear, however the banding and interal dynamics are still very tropical and excellent. Pressure maintaining at 960mb which is quite bad as it should have been weakening.

[Coast]

Hurricane Sandy set to make history as it aims at U.S. coast

Weather forecasters worked to pinpoint the likely landfall of the monstrous Hurricane Sandy as it closed in on the U.S. East Coast Sunday with the potential to be the biggest storm to hit the mainland.

Government officials faced tough decisions on emergency plans as residents scrambled to purchase supplies. Governors of several states in the hurricane's path declared emergencies and ordered mandatory evacuations of vulnerable coastal areas. On its current projected track, Sandy is most likely to make U.S. landfall on Monday night between Delaware and the New York/New Jersey area, forecasters said.

While Sandy's winds were not overwhelming for a hurricane, its width was what made it exceptional. The storm's hurricane force winds extended 105 miles (165 km) from its centre while its lesser tropical storm-force winds reached across 700 miles (1,125 km). Sandy could have a brutal impact on major cities in the target zone. In New York, city officials discussed whether to shut the subway system on Sunday in advance of the storm, which could bring the county's financial nerve centre to a standstill. The storm could cause the worst flooding Connecticut has seen in more than 70 years, said the state's governor, Dannel P. Malloy.

Government forecasters at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said as the storm approached land it became increasingly pointless to predict the precise landfall. "It is still too soon to focus on the exact track ... both because of forecast uncertainty and because the impacts are going to cover such a large area away from the centre," the NHC said in an advisory. Sandy was located about 275 miles (445 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with top sustained winds of 75 miles (120 km) per hour early Sunday, the NHC said. The storm was moving over the Atlantic parallel to the U.S. coast at 14 miles per hour (22 kph), but was forecast to make a tight westerly turn toward the U.S. coast on Sunday night.

RECORD BREAKER

Sandy could be the largest storm to hit the United States, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's website. "The size of this alone, affecting a heavily populated area, is going to be history making," said Jeff Masters, a hurricane specialist who writes a blog posted on the Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com). Sandy could impact the cities of Boston, New York, Baltimore, Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia, one of the most densely populated regions of the country home to tens of millions of people.

Forecasters said Sandy was a rare, hybrid "super storm" created by an Arctic jet stream wrapping itself around a tropical storm, possibly causing up to 12 inches (30 cm) of rain in some areas, as well as heavy snowfall inland. Sandy killed at least 66 people as it made its way through the Caribbean islands, including 51 in Haiti, mostly from flash flooding and mudslides, according to authorities.

ELECTION LOOMS

The approaching storm forced a change of plans for both presidential candidates ahead of the November 6 election. The White House said President Obama cancelled a campaign appearance in Virginia on Monday and another stop in Colorado on Tuesday, and will instead monitor the storm from Washington. Republican challenger Mitt Romney rescheduled campaign events planned for Virginia on Sunday and was flying to Ohio instead.

All along the U.S. coast worried residents packed stores, buying generators, candles, food and other supplies in anticipation of power outages. Some local governments announced schools would be closed on Monday and Tuesday. "They're freaking out," said Joe Dautel, a clerk at a hardware store in Glenside, Pennsylvania. "I'm selling people four, five, six packs of batteries - when I had them."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/10/28/uk-storm-sandy-hurricane-idUKBRE89P05H20121028

[Coast]

http-~~-//youtu.be/Nm9REt3Pccs

Edited October 28, 2012 by Coast

[The PIT]

Does raise the interesting question how much Snow can a hurricane drop.

[Cookie]

Does raise the interesting question how much Snow can a hurricane drop.

you have got to assume a lot?

[Sainsbo]

NHC saying pressure is at 951mb, a massive drop since it was 961 just 2 or 3 hours ago.

[knocker]

HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A...CORRECTED

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012

800 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO

THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK

HARBOR...

...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL...

CORRECTED DIRECTION FROM NEW YORK CITY IN SUMMARY SECTION

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...32.1N 73.1W

ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

* BERMUDA

HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN

EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. OTHER WATCHES AND

WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. SEE STATEMENTS FROM

LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE

NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST

TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST

COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE

COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE

WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO

520 MILES...835 KM. A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF

MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR

HURRICANE FORCE. ALSO...NOAA BUOY 41036...LOCATED IN ONSLOW BAY

NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS

OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH...94 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE

RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE COAST OF

NORTH CAROLINA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...AND THESE

SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO

ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY...AND

REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS

AT OR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE

AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE

FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING

DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH

TIDE...

NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT

SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT

LONG ISLAND SOUND AND RARITAN BAY INCLUDING NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO

11 FT

ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT

CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS

BAY...3 TO 5 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE

AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER

LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND

EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...

ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.

FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER

SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION

SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR

NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES

POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER

PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA

PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE

NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH

THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO

THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$

[Coast]

New York coastal flood warning in effect:

http://www.google.org/publicalerts/alert?aid=a1d12041dc9bf69&hl=en&gl=GB&source=web

[Iceberg]

Looking at the floater and going on from the Nhc discussion recon found steadily falling pressure through the 4 centre fixes finishing at 951mb from this we can probably assume that it was strengthening over this time and not simply a failure of recon to find the centre.

Recon also commented on the eye wall which was open to the ne.

If we look at floater in avn the heavier precip trying to get round the eye is evident as is the lessening of the shear.

All of the above points to tropical warm core intensification which was not ment to happen, the system was forecast to maintain centr, pressure and expand the wind field.

This is not good.

There is every chance tht the pressure will be 940 now before baroclonic intensification begins.

With its current structure the last thing we want is the hurricane to ramp up as it pases over the gs due to a tight inner core.

The ring of convention around the centre will need to be wathed very closely this afternoon.

Again sorry on my phone.

[Somerset Squall]

Good analysis there Iceberg, Sandy indeed looks more tropical currently with convection building near the centre (something Sandy has been lacking over the last day). Ive seen the model predictions of landfall between 930-940mb being regarded as overcooked- looks like this could turn out not to be the case.

Edited October 28, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[knocker]

WV at 1355.

[Roger J Smith]

The stark facts are that Sandy could become the worst storm ever to hit the New York City region in modern times (at least in regions west of the 1938 storm's damage track which was mainly eastern Long Island CT-RI).

Both wind gusts and storm surge potential are into record territory. Northern New Jersey is very low-lying and any sort of large storm surge into New York Harbour could back up local rivers that are carrying flood-generated extra water capacity. I would not quite say Katrina-like flooding but perhaps in some areas on that scale. Wind damage especially to trees and therefore electric power could be considerable also and with this latest trend to lower central pressures, I think it quite possible that Sandy will only be in earliest stages of real transition at landfall. Transition will probably be very rapid but this is mostly an academic curiosity as a mega-powerful storm will continue to move forward (WNW then NW inland) bringing very heavy rain potential well inland.

The snow (I should stress this because this is not going to play out like a nor'easter) will develop on the southwest quadrant of the precip zone and the heavy potential comes in part from elevation. If the entire region was at or near sea level it is doubtful that it would snow anywhere although it could sleet, but the 1500-3000 ft elevations of much of w/c PA, w MD and WV will turn the precip readily to snow. But when the storm gets up closer to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday, the lake effect streamers will be mostly rain or ice pellet showers, temps will be 7-10 C and the lakes are still at 13-15 C. These lake effect streamers will be capable of turning to snow over higher parts of w NY and nw PA. In southern Ontario only a few locations are high enough above sea level (these well to the northwest of Toronto) to consider potential for snowfall and it would likely be marginal there but heavy if it came about due to Georgian Bay.

But getting back to the main storm impact, this could go off the scale of what has been experienced from other tropical systems in the region. That comment applies more to regions north of a line from Atlantic City NJ to Philadelphia to Allentown PA. South of that line the impacts will gradually diminish into the range of average tropical storm impacts thanks to the wind direction and the weaker wind field on the southwest side of the track (although hurricane gusts are still possible).

Due to the large size of Sandy and the dynamics in play, southern New England is just about in the max risk zone also and even Boston is likely to get very strong winds despite distance from centre, but rainfall potential east of about Hartford CT to Worcester MA is probably just moderate (25-50 mm) trending higher to the west in southern New England.

My guess is that Sandy will not have a second appearance in any future year.

[Sainsbo]

http://news.sky.com/story/1003856/hurricane-sandy-nyc-subway-to-be-suspended

The Governor of New York state says subway, bus and train services will be suspended later ahead of Hurricane Sandy.

[knocker]

The stark facts are that Sandy could become the worst storm ever to hit the New York City region in modern times (at least in regions west of the 1938 storm's damage track which was mainly eastern Long Island CT-RI).

Both wind gusts and storm surge potential are into record territory. Northern New Jersey is very low-lying and any sort of large storm surge into New York Harbour could back up local rivers that are carrying flood-generated extra water capacity. I would not quite say Katrina-like flooding but perhaps in some areas on that scale. Wind damage especially to trees and therefore electric power could be considerable also and with this latest trend to lower central pressures, I think it quite possible that Sandy will only be in earliest stages of real transition at landfall. Transition will probably be very rapid but this is mostly an academic curiosity as a mega-powerful storm will continue to move forward (WNW then NW inland) bringing very heavy rain potential well inland.

The snow (I should stress this because this is not going to play out like a nor'easter) will develop on the southwest quadrant of the precip zone and the heavy potential comes in part from elevation. If the entire region was at or near sea level it is doubtful that it would snow anywhere although it could sleet, but the 1500-3000 ft elevations of much of w/c PA, w MD and WV will turn the precip readily to snow. But when the storm gets up closer to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday, the lake effect streamers will be mostly rain or ice pellet showers, temps will be 7-10 C and the lakes are still at 13-15 C. These lake effect streamers will be capable of turning to snow over higher parts of w NY and nw PA. In southern Ontario only a few locations are high enough above sea level (these well to the northwest of Toronto) to consider potential for snowfall and it would likely be marginal there but heavy if it came about due to Georgian Bay.

But getting back to the main storm impact, this could go off the scale of what has been experienced from other tropical systems in the region. That comment applies more to regions north of a line from Atlantic City NJ to Philadelphia to Allentown PA. South of that line the impacts will gradually diminish into the range of average tropical storm impacts thanks to the wind direction and the weaker wind field on the southwest side of the track (although hurricane gusts are still possible).

Due to the large size of Sandy and the dynamics in play, southern New England is just about in the max risk zone also and even Boston is likely to get very strong winds despite distance from centre, but rainfall potential east of about Hartford CT to Worcester MA is probably just moderate (25-50 mm) trending higher to the west in southern New England.

My guess is that Sandy will not have a second appearance in any future year.

Many thanks for that professional detailed analysis Roger.

[stevofunnelcl]

Discussion will go on beyond Sandy, regarding lack of Hurricane Watches / Warnings from NHC

Now for a storm going harmlessly out to sea i understand

I also understand, it could lose tropical characteristics before landfall (no sign of that presently)

People require laymens terms to have the situation explained without getting too technical

My worry is that people will not take this as serious.

I sure the word is getting out anyway, death toll stands at 65

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

People need to get ready now

[Sainsbo]

Mandatory Evacuation now in place for almost 400,000 people in NY.

[Iceberg]

Being described as the largest and possibly biggest pain in tr I have a problem in history storm for the east coast

However this is before what I think is even more intensification than planned currently

The storm is getting its act together flight level winds are increasing again

Winds are mixing well to the surface

And most disturbingly the warm core and eye is rapidly improving

[pip22]

I really hope Sandy will go across the atlantic and slam britain with winds upto 80-90mph and 100mph over high ground. It also may bring much colder weather behind it. It may happen next week. I maybe wrong though.

Sandy is quite a threat to us. This is why I kept a close eye on it. It would affect us around about next tuesday or wednesday.

Edited October 28, 2012 by Fresh_Prince_Of_Leyland