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Somerset Squall

Tropical Storm Maliksi

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A new tropical depression has formed northeast of Guam. Intensity is 30kts. The depression is in a favourable environment for intensification, with low shear and sea temps of around 29-30C. 20W is a large tropical depression which may take some time to consolidate, however the system is expected to become a typhoon. Subtropical ridging to the northeast is expected to be the primary steering influence, with 20W moving northwest, north, then recurving northeast around the southwest, west then northwest sides of the ridge.

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Tropical Depression 20W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Maliksi, with sustained winds now at 40kts. Maliksi is a HUGE system, with deep convection in plentiful supply, though most of it is located southeast of the broad LLC. For this reason, rapid intensification appears unlikely, but Maliksi should strengthen steadily to typhoon strength as it moves northwestwards to northwards.

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Maliksi remains a large, sprawling storm. Intensity has not changed much today, and sustained winds have edged up to 45kts. Maliksi has another 24hrs to strengthen, beyond that time, the fairly quick northwards track will bring Maliksi over cooler waters and increased shear, which will cause the storm to begin extratropical transition. Maliksi will then move northeastwards, embedded in the mid-lattitude westerlies and move out into the cold waters of the North Pacific as an extratropical storm.

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Maliksi failed to strengthen beyond 45kts. The reasoning behind this was the huge size of the storm and disorganised convection. Maliksi is now well on the way to becoming extratropical and is accelerating northeastwards out of the tropics.

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