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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


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How would that translate into weather on the ground? Would it be a good thing or bad?

I believe the AAM spike would enhance the blocking signal while the MJO moving into phase 7-8 and potentially stalling in that region gives a signal for that blocking to be centred over Greenland. The stratospheric vortex reforming at the end of the GFS run is perhaps a concern but probably not for a few weeks yet as these other favourable signals are likely to override any attempt to restrengthen the vortex or the jet at our level for a few weeks yet. Which, in layman's terms, is about as much as you could ask for if you're looking for a prolonged cold spell, but obviously this far from guarantees onePosted Image
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Warming still ongoing at the 30hPa level.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

Jethro i think Gp sees it being good for coldies 1 and 8? maybe wrong.

So are Afica and the Atlantic MJO phases 1 and 8, respectively? Is that what the numbers refer to, the actual location of the MJO?

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given the size of the wave 2 warming and its downwelling to the bottom of the strat, it was very odd for the split to be closing up on ecm anyway. another example of events above 5hpa not being picked up ??

incidentally, gfs has now trended back to 24hours ago where it takes the canadian vortex on a journey back to siberia leaving a lobe behind over canada stretched over the pole.

as far as concerns about energy into the atlantic as the vortex moves around - if we get a block into greeny, this becomes less worrying as all it does in reinforce a cut off block, providing moisture for nw european snowfall and tbh, energy left in hudsons should mean the block doesnt drift west to introduce a west based -NAO.

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The PNA is starting to get a few members on the positive side now, and in the positive phase we see lower pressure over the North Pacific and Aleutian Islands. This tends to be a precursor for increased stratopheric wave-1 activity. I have no idea how reliable wave amplitude forecasts are, but ECM is going to a big rise in wave-1 in 7-10 days:

Posted Image

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Stratospheric forecast charts are still looking good as they have for the last month. It has taken a seemingly long time from the first hints of a warming to actually getting a SSW and now the modelling of the forecast disruption. As far as ideal stratospheric conditions to bring cold to the UK, I don't hink that we could ask for better. The stratospheric conditions are completely different to the ones seen back in early December. At that point we witnessed tropospheric wave breaks that split up into the stratosphere - but the excessively cooling and vortex intensification eventually overrode these flattening out the pattern. Now we see the stratosphere dictating the pattern through the warming, displaced and split vortex.

Where the tropospheric blocking is forecast to set up is very much dependent on the positioning of the split vortices. The tropospheric output a few days ago was very much out of sync with the stratospheric vortex positions - but now we are seeing some kind of linkage.

Here we see the T+144 100 hPa chart (lower strat) and the expected area of blocking to occur with the split vortex:

post-4523-0-48157500-1357674392_thumb.pn

This is very well correlated to the ridge positioning higher up the strat (10 hPa) and we cab see the obvious linkage:

post-4523-0-40701400-1357674461_thumb.pn

By T+276 this ridge has grown in strength at 10 hpa and is better positioned towards east Greenland:

post-4523-0-67624200-1357674597_thumb.pn

And at 100 hpa we can see the clearly defined upper flow:

post-4523-0-25662600-1357674749_thumb.pn

And just in case the strat vortex had too many ideas of reforming ( as a run had suggested) we throw in another warming of what is left of the vortex for good measure at the end of the run!

post-4523-0-64897300-1357674837_thumb.pn

So, everything is perfectly positioned to drive cold towards the UK - and confidence of a cold spell will increase if these strat charts remain the same in the coming days. I have always been hopeful that the Cohen climatology would deliver, despite the resistance last month on the model thread, and we are getting very close to this being realised now. If it does and the upper strat forecasts remain the same then there is a good chance of some notable cold.

On another note the updated MJO forecasts are consistent and good once again.

post-4523-0-25757800-1357675160_thumb.gipost-4523-0-06954100-1357675164_thumb.gipost-4523-0-25878300-1357675171_thumb.gi

All good.

Again you amaze me.

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*New Warming*

Posted Image

Posted Image

Still there 18z.

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ECM Strat charts should be good in the morning.

Incredible inter-run consistency both stratospherically and tropospherically by GFS low res - who ever thought we would say that?

SK

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If the warming continues, will it completely disembowell the PV for good this winter?

It will delay it's recovery.

Only a small vortex left by T+384. But don't worry - it is still under attack!

post-4523-0-02395600-1357686105_thumb.pn

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It will delay it's recovery.

Only a small vortex left by T+384. But don't worry - it is still under attack!

post-4523-0-02395600-1357686105_thumb.pn

Never kick a man when he is down, but by all means kick a vortex when down. Posted Image

The SSW forecasts have been first class this winter, and hopefully its effects will be felt next week and beyond.

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Hats off to all of you on here. You have my utmost respect. It has taken at least two years for me to get my head around your science and I doubt I will ever truly understand it but it is so nice to see you guys reaping the rewards. Always look foward to your posts.

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So as somebody from the US (east coast to be exact), like myself, this is bad news if the cold air is going y'alls way? or do both sides get some cold air action from it?

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