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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013


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@John Badrick, There hasn't been any increase in activity on the sun. The sun as of today is still at low level activity as it has been in quite some time. There are sunspots visible on the disc but non of them are magnetically complex at this time. Check SolarHam website for reliable up to date information on solar activity:

www.solarham.net

The current activity is still in a nose dive as can be seen in the graph updated by Nasa this week. They have been forced to reduce their cycle count prediction after increasing it to 72 a few months back:

http://solarscience....v/predict.shtml

Thank you maw368. I was looking at space weather.com for updates and it just seemed that there had been a rise in SSnumbers and more activity in recent days. Will check out that website. Cheers
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Good post again Recretos. I am in firm agreement here that we will see a downweller this SSW as well.

If the ECM ends up verifying, what will the explanation be ? I just think that in some years whatever happens with the Strat, the NAO will refuse to budge and the minute that there is energy off the Seaboard, it just serves to maintain the status quo.

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If the ECM ends up verifying, what will the explanation be ? I just think that in some years whatever happens with the Strat, the NAO will refuse to budge and the minute that there is energy off the Seaboard, it just serves to maintain the status quo.

That it is still too early to gauge the full effects of a 45 day possible downwelling event 11 days into it? Did you not read IF's post about the downwelling effects not been seen in the models yet?

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If the ECM ends up verifying, what will the explanation be ? I just think that in some years whatever happens with the Strat, the NAO will refuse to budge and the minute that there is energy off the Seaboard, it just serves to maintain the status quo.

the ecm runs till the 17th ian. that still not two weeks since the SSW. downwelling can take up to three or four weeks on occasions.

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the ecm runs till the 17th ian. that still not two weeks since the SSW. downwelling can take up to three or four weeks on occasions.

I appreciate the downwelling time-lag issue, but if the ECM verifies it would be a very poor starting position and any impact may be fairly negligable on synoptics for the UK.

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I appreciate the downwelling time-lag issue, but if the ECM verifies it would be a very poor starting position and any impact may be fairly negligable on synoptics for the UK.

I'm no expert but haven't we time and time again been suprised by how quickly models change?

a week ago it was posts along the lines of it's a long way back to cold from here etc (not you personally) and now we have a potential of a snow event this weekend coming.

I think at the end of this winter we will all be a little bit wiser thanks to threads like this one but still have a long way to go to accurately predict the weather more then a few days out.

Edited by Jayces
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Regarding downwelling and its lag/time frame:

First, lets look at this:

Posted Image

Than at this:

Posted Image

And this:

Posted Image

Now since this probably wont be a classical "SSW hammer" type downwelling, there are certain small issues with it. First, if the troposphere dynamics play out the way they look, we will have to first differ what "went up" and what "came down". And if they meet half way. Not literally of course, but in the similar system that I was looking at in my previous post. So I think that the classic "10-20 day" response is a bit more complicated that just fixating on those 10-20 days. Looking at dynamics along the way and searching for those "connection points", which basically are already or soon to be present, with the split all the way from troposphere into stratosphere. Those type of things just can't be overlooked in my opinion. So looking for a classical downwelling might be slightly trickier. Posted Image Or, perhaps I am just talking nonsense, because this is just my first real SSW season, and I have actually just learned in the past 2 months what its all about, so maybe the practical lacking is starting to show? Posted Image

Edited by Recretos
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Who hit the 'vortex reset' button in the mid/upper strat for the latter part of the 18z run? All the kings horses and men have been very busy and humpty looks 'happy as a pig' in the proverbial again!

Were the ecm ens strat forecasts right ?

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Who hit the 'vortex reset' button in the mid/upper strat for the latter part of the 18z run? All the kings horses and men have been very busy and humpty looks 'happy as a pig' in the proverbial again!

Were the ecm ens strat forecasts right ?

I thought it looked a bit quick especially compared to the previous run!

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I thought it looked a bit quick especially compared to the previous run!

Like i said ed, they've been very busy. Assuming they are right, any thoughts as to how much stronger the vortex could then get, given the time of year (last third jan). We must have plenty of evidence of vortex reformation post SSW and how long this took to downwell/if it downwelled and did the trop vortex reform with any gusto.

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Like i said ed, they've been very busy. Assuming they are right, any thoughts as to how much stronger the vortex could then get, given the time of year (last third jan). We must have plenty of evidence of vortex reformation post SSW and how long this took to downwell/if it downwelled and did the trop vortex reform with any gusto.

It will still take up to 6 weeks for the SSW to still have potential effects on the troposphere before any reforming vortex will be strong enough to induce some sense of normality. Whether this manifests itself as a blocking pattern or a weaker jet stream through this time is anyones guess. We may need some MJO help along the way.

Speaking of which......

post-4523-0-80909000-1357600861_thumb.gipost-4523-0-23914400-1357600882_thumb.gipost-4523-0-83254200-1357600920_thumb.gi

Latest updates will do very nicely indeed.

Edited by chionomaniac
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It will still take up to 6 weeks for the SSW to still have potential effects on the troposphere before any reforming vortex will be strong enough to induce some sense of normality. Whether this manifests itself as a blocking pattern or a weaker jet stream through this time is anyones guess. We may need some MJO help along the way.

Speaking of which......

post-4523-0-80909000-1357600861_thumb.gipost-4523-0-23914400-1357600882_thumb.gipost-4523-0-83254200-1357600920_thumb.gi

Latest updates will do very nicely indeed.

Don't they seem to be "curling" back into phase 6 though rather than going into the preferable phase 8?

Still good as you say however.

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Am I seeing things or not noticing them - was this pulse of warming there previously??

post-7292-0-56230100-1357601152_thumb.pn

MJO interesting as the later projections curve back on themselves, continued advertisement of Greenland High from phase plots.

Also this at 100mb caught the eye. Smack bang over Greenland.

post-7292-0-48841400-1357601401_thumb.gi

Will be interesting to see what the 48hr chart for wave 2 appears like tomorrow.

post-7292-0-84544100-1357601551_thumb.gi

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It will still take up to 6 weeks for the SSW to still have potential effects on the troposphere before any reforming vortex will be strong enough to induce some sense of normality. Whether this manifests itself as a blocking pattern or a weaker jet stream through this time is anyones guess. We may need some MJO help along the way.

Speaking of which......

post-4523-0-80909000-1357600861_thumb.gipost-4523-0-23914400-1357600882_thumb.gipost-4523-0-83254200-1357600920_thumb.gi

Latest updates will do very nicely indeed.

and the key thing there, the large amplitude in the high AAM phase spaces will induce a significant westerly wind response, first through increased frictional torques (happening now) and then through eddy flux and mountain torques. Tendency in relative angular momentum could reach record levels converging the tropospheric - stratospheric coupling.

I suspect that the warming event will actually stall the MJO over Africa and the Atlantic.

Edited by Glacier Point
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This chart nicely shows the SSW now taking place through all layers of the stratosphere...

Posted Image

To me the jet seems too amplified for the easterly to manifest itself this weekend. I suspect a downgrade and the real cold will stay the other side of the north sea a la December just gone. Having said that, due to the nature of this SSW event, I believe there is scope for a cold spell although it may take a few attempts. It certainly looks as if the rampant jet / mild pattern should be disrupted for the second half of winter.

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