Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[AWD]

The warming at the top of the stratosphere is way off the scale on the 06z!

http://www.instantwe...TMP_1mb_300.gif

Link not working mate.

[Dorsetbred]

Link not working mate.

As the message says "Don't hot link it" so it needs to be saved and linked to a image host somewhere

[AWD]

As the message says "Don't hot link it" so it needs to be saved and linked to a image host somewhere

D'oh. One too many Christmas tipples already!

[Cloud 10]

Link not working mate.

Fixed now.

[chionomaniac]

Well Christmas has presented us with the first SSW forecasts as far as I can make out from the last two GFS runs. Two different types as well, which highlights the difficulty the models have in determining how exactly the warming will effect the mid stratospheric vortex.

Firstly the 06Z run has a displacement SSW at 10 hpa

followed by the 12Z which suggests a split in the vortex - probably some wave two activity following the wave 1 activity (with still further warming programmed on this one) :

We are now seeing the warming entering a more reasonable timeframe with an incredible 11.2ºC forecast at T+204 at 10 hPa:

Will the ECM start to show this tomorrow?

I think that the differences in how the warming affects the vortex in the consecutive runs suggest that it is too early to work out how this could filter down to the troposphere. Presently, I see no favourable displacement or split forecast at lower levels - but this could change dramatically over the next week or two. We would much rather have the vortex disruption programmed rather than not at this point!

[Summer Sun]

Deepest FI I know but maybe the first hints of something colder after a settled start to January?

[lorenzo]

displace then Easterly at 22nd jan - Bosh !

Oooops too many xmas drinks

[Weathizard]

A question quickly to you guys, do models factor in warming during their runs? Because people say there can be instant impacts from stratopsheric warming and weakening of the vortex but it just seems to be getting stronger in current runs.

[The PIT]

Looks like it may result in the dreaded Euro high on present runs. I'm not expecting the models to show anything to reflect this until Sunday maybe perhaps later. Of course there's no guarantee that it will favour UK i.e cold and snow. We may end up in the wrong place.

[Isolated Frost]

Ho ho woah! Superb ssw predictions, strat on the shandy?!

[Recretos]

The soundings at 192h, 12Z run.

Through the 10mb warm core:

Through the 2mb warm core.

I swear I can see sparks flying in there!

Best regards.

[Bishop Brennan]

I swear I can see sparks flying in there!

Hi Andrej, for the uninitiated (i.e. myself!), what do the final two graphs show? A split vortex from around Jan 10th?

Bish

[Recretos]

Hi Bish.

It is a demonstration of power. An epic battle for supremacy, between the polar vortex (fighting for survival) and the "polar High" (on the major offence). So to speak.

[sebastiaan1973]

If I'm right (?), I see almost a SSW. The winds are almost negative (1.88 m/s)

[bluearmy]

If I'm right (?), I see almost a SSW. The winds are almost negative (1.88 m/s)

Its reversed at 7 hpa! Presumably technical SSW forecast at jan 5th on todays ecm. The zonal wind chart shows how close the blue area of reversal is to 10hpa.

The same chart also shows this general drop in winds in the upper strat pushes some slightly stronger winds into the lower strat which might explain why we are currently seeing a lack of trop response in the latter part of ncep output.

The wave 1 acivity enormous in the 7/10 day period which would indicate a displacement SSW. However, at the same time, we see some wave 2 appear and although nothing like the strength of the wave 1, it seems it maybe enough to split the weakenng vortex.

wonderful xmas watching and large parts of the NH mid latitudes are sure to see a frigid back end jan and feb. others will not.

[Cloud 10]

Zonal winds at 1 hpa heading through the floor,10 hpa and 30 hpa already low and falling.

Let the games begin! (somewhere)

edit.

just groping around in FI at 100mb seems to show a split vortex,with one chunk over siberia

and the other west of greenland with big height rises to our north.

Possible easterly solution for mid month?

Edited December 26, 2012 by Cloud 10

[chionomaniac]

Its reversed at 7 hpa! Presumably technical SSW forecast at jan 5th on todays ecm. The zonal wind chart shows how close the blue area of reversal is to 10hpa.

The same chart also shows this general drop in winds in the upper strat pushes some slightly stronger winds into the lower strat which might explain why we are currently seeing a lack of trop response in the latter part of ncep output.

The wave 1 acivity enormous in the 7/10 day period which would indicate a displacement SSW. However, at the same time, we see some wave 2 appear and although nothing like the strength of the wave 1, it seems it maybe enough to split the weakenng vortex.

wonderful xmas watching and large parts of the NH mid latitudes are sure to see a frigid back end jan and feb. others will not.

There is too much uncertaintity following day 10 to suggest whether we will see a split vortex or not and where if not any immediate displacement ends up. I think the MJO is initially a big thorn - but I would rather have this thorn present prior to the SSW rather than after!!

[nick sussex]

There is too much uncertaintity following day 10 to suggest whether we will see a split vortex or not and where if not any immediate displacement ends up. I think the MJO is initially a big thorn - but I would rather have this thorn present prior to the SSW rather than after!!

Chiono isn't it possible that the strat warming over rides the MJO signal?

In the past we've seen supposedly good MJO phases fail to deliver so in this instance couldn't a SSW simply blow this signal away.Do we have any data with the MJO in apparent unfavourable mode with good synoptics for the UK?

[Snowy Liverpool]

If I'm right (?), I see almost a SSW. The winds are almost negative (1.88 m/s)

Yes, so close but not yet!

[cooling climate]

Wouldn't be surprised to see the models chugging along as they are and

all of a sudden show a much more amplified or negative AO start to develope.

Also with the warming being forcast the opposite happens in the tropics would

this change not help to ignite the MJO with much higher pressure to the north

and lower to the south.

[chionomaniac]

Chiono isn't it possible that the strat warming over rides the MJO signal?

In the past we've seen supposedly good MJO phases fail to deliver so in this instance couldn't a SSW simply blow this signal away.Do we have any data with the MJO in apparent unfavourable mode with good synoptics for the UK?

The more that I get to grips with teleconnections, the more that I realise that the relationship is more 'symbiotic' than that. Like two well rehearsed ballroom dancers, when one moves one way, the other naturally steps the other way allowing the dance to flow. I suspect the overall teleconnective pattern is similar - when one player steps one way, the other steps the other, working in a natural balance with each other - very similar to the slp pattern - but on a bigger scale. So I suspect that when the strat steps one way the pattern of tropical convection will 'match' this and step in the other direction so that everything 'fits' in. In that way the large scale bigger flow will always be a product of the total teleconnective 'symbiosis'. The stratosphere warming in this case is a step made by the stratospheric dancer in response to the previous tropospheric step.

[nick sussex]

The more that I get to grips with teleconnections, the more that I realise that the relationship is more 'symbiotic' than that. Like two well rehearsed ballroom dancers, when one moves one way, the other naturally steps the other way allowing the dance to flow. I suspect the overall teleconnective pattern is similar - when one player steps one way, the other steps the other, working in a natural balance with each other - very similar to the slp pattern - but on a bigger scale. So I suspect that when the strat steps one way the pattern of tropical convection will 'match' this and step in the other direction so that everything 'fits' in. In that way the large scale bigger flow will always be a product of the total teleconnective 'symbiosis'. The stratosphere warming in this case is a step made by the stratospheric dancer in response to the previous tropospheric step.

So if you get a SSW will that then drive the MJO into a favourable phase? I would have thought that a SSW signal is a much more powerful force on the NH pattern than the MJO, the reason I say this is that I've seen many favourable MJO phases that don't get translated into better NH patterns especially in Europe.

[chionomaniac]

So if you get a SSW will that then drive the MJO into a favourable phase? I would have thought that a SSW signal is a much more powerful force on the NH pattern than the MJO, the reason I say this is that I've seen many favourable MJO phases that don't get translated into better NH patterns especially in Europe.

I don't know Nick, I just think that everything teleconnectively is interlinked. I know that we have seen favourable MJO phases suppressed by a strongly driven cold strat vortex - but quite often we see the amplification in the pattern as expected by the MJO phase - just not the northern blocking.

[nick sussex]

I don't know Nick, I just think that everything teleconnectively is interlinked. I know that we have seen favourable MJO phases suppressed by a strongly driven cold strat vortex - but quite often we see the amplification in the pattern as expected by the MJO phase - just not the northern blocking.

Heres an abstract from a study which suggests certain phases of the MJO are more likely to be SSW precursors with lag times involved:

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2012/2012GL053144.shtml

It's a shame we don't get to see the whole article .

[sebastiaan1973]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~sbf1/papers/mjosswv6.pdf -> here you are.

Sometimes I wonder what will our knowledge about the atmosphere be in 25 years from now?