Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[nick sussex]

I also want to add my thanks to Recretos for a superb post.

That took alot of hard work and time and I'm sure I speak for everyone in saying we're very lucky to have you on here Recretos.

I'm really surprised at just how good the GFS does with the stratosphere forecasts, so certainly will be viewing them in future with less suspicion!

[Panayiotis]

Split vortex at 360hrs on the 18z, this happened earlier in the winter and it delivered with the cold, seems like a trend as the 12z also showed it. (dont know if it showed it on the other runs)

Edited December 23, 2012 by Panayiotis

[Cal]

I guess my data assimilation system is much better than that one of the GFS. I also have around 4 years of "general meteorology" experience, which helps me to understand things a bit faster and to put them into the big picture. Of course all those 4 years are sadly or luckily self learned too. I never had the will to go to "meteo school". The "learn through experience" motto worked fine for me I guess. I am going waay off topic here.

Cheers.

Brilliant post there Recretos, can you learn a bit more about the Troposphere (cough, cough) & do a degree in Metreology as we could all perhaps benefit !

[masheeuk]

Fantastic stuff Recretos. I have learnt more this year than I have for a very long time.

[Weather-history]

Is this normal warming for 1mb? 36C at 1mb?

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2012122212&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384

Now 40+C

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2012122300&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=372

[feb1991blizzard]

Not sure if the ECM 30mb forecasts are good newsor bad, the size of the -40c or greater area looks to have subsided by 240, alhough the >55c has increased.

Not sure if the ECM is as keen as the GFS. Hope it has not already peaked on the ECM.

Stonking warming continues further up though.

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=10&forecast=all&lng=eng

Thanks to recretas for his excellent research on the strat forecasts above.

Edited December 23, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

ohh, how close ?

Good to see tropical stratosphere temperatures forecast to fall which I think would be a pre-requisite for warming at the Pole.

Warming also now very pronounced at 5hPa and 1hPa:

I think the date around 7th / 8th January continues to be the most likely date of a warming event.

Note the continued similarity with the 62/63 warming event in terms of GPH profile.

More excellent wortk from GP, i know its a big if yet but after recretos's post regarding grater accuracy for strat forecasts im more confident of it coming off, he has being saying this for a while and may be correct to the day almost.

Then its just the small matter of it translating to favourable troposheric blocking!!

Edited December 23, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[bluearmy]

The outer reaches of gfs continue to split the stretched vortex and the siberian chunk at 10hpa ends up way south and fairly flacid. We are left with a strong circulation centred nw of iceland. I'm no expert but i would hope this isnt where the remnants of the vortex our side of the NH end up. as we head down through the trop, this adjusts to just west of greenland. We would need this to head further west to allow a height rise to our ne. Would seem no chance of a greeny height rise with a chunk of vortex in that general locale. All in all, i'm not greatly enthused by what is likely to be the initial response to the warming (in whatever form it takes) and it may well be that we have to wait a few weeks thereafter for the more typical response from a strat warming re trop patterns. I hope i'm reading that wrong.

[lorenzo]

Great work Recretos, 4hours writing and 4 beers = great strat model understanding. Superb Work.

[bobbydog]

More excellent wortk from GP, i know its a big if yet but after recretos's post regarding grater accuracy for strat forecasts im more confident of it coming off, he has being saying this for a while and may be correct to the day almost.

Then its just the small matter of it translating to favourable troposheric blocking!!

all getting very interesting! if the GFS is as accurate as has been mentioned, then this warming is almost guaranteed. it ties in with many small clues, GP has been confident of some changes at this timescale, someone posted that the highways agency have been told to stockpile grit for mid jan and even the MetO 30 day forecast has an ambiguous hint-

"Later in this forecast period there is greater than average uncertainty though some marked changes of weather type are possible and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases."

the less certain aspect is how (if at all) it will affect us. what i would like to know is, is this (predicted) warming event 'bigger' than usual? or of a standard type?

basically, could someone explain what we are seeing forecast and what its likely effects on the northern hemisphere would be?

[Duane S.]

Wave 2 still showing to pep up towards the end of the forecast period...

Talking of pepping up...

Wave 1 continues to intensify high up.

[The Northern Ramper]

More excellent wortk from GP, i know its a big if yet but after recretos's post regarding grater accuracy for strat forecasts im more confident of it coming off, he has being saying this for a while and may be correct to the day almost.

Then its just the small matter of it translating to favourable troposheric blocking!!

Falling favourable for us is key, too often it doesn't.

[feb1991blizzard]

Falling favourable for us is key, too often it doesn't.

Yes, BA's post does not sound too promising, i had not really gave much of a thought to where any blocking might end up trop-surface wise based on 10mb - 30mb output, as surely there would be some difference down the line, maybe i have being too preocupied with temps reversal of winds, i will leave this to the experts on here from now on to decide where we might end up - lets just hope.

[karyo]

The outer reaches of gfs continue to split the stretched vortex and the siberian chunk at 10hpa ends up way south and fairly flacid. We are left with a strong circulation centred nw of iceland. I'm no expert but i would hope this isnt where the remnants of the vortex our side of the NH end up. as we head down through the trop, this adjusts to just west of greenland. We would need this to head further west to allow a height rise to our ne. Would seem no chance of a greeny height rise with a chunk of vortex in that general locale. All in all, i'm not greatly enthused by what is likely to be the initial response to the warming (in whatever form it takes) and it may well be that we have to wait a few weeks thereafter for the more typical response from a strat warming re trop patterns. I hope i'm reading that wrong.

This sounds worrying as if true we would waste several more weeks of winter!

Karyo

[bluearmy]

This sounds worrying as if true we would waste several more weeks of winter!

Karyo

karyo, two things: no 1: i am no expert in this field. no.2: its only a forecast and at day 10, ecm has a slightly different placing of the strat vortex to ncep. we wouldnt need much of an adjustment in the ncep fi placement of that segment of vortex, hemispherically speaking, for a much more promising trop outlook being possible for nw europe.

[Weather-history]

Wouldn't the 100hpa level be more important than the 10hpa level since it is obviously nearer to the surface?

[Winter Monsoon]

Wouldn't the 100hpa level be more important than the 10hpa level since it is obviously nearer to the surface?

Yeh bit of a difference from 1mb

To 100mb

And the Corresponding 500

Not looking good, but it is still FI in a way so still open to change.

[bluearmy]

The 1mb height chart from T384 on the 06z run is pretty incredible.

[Mark Bayley]

I can imagine our friend the PV won't be looking like that

To long after this!

More on the realiabilty of the strat charts, heres three charts from T348 down to T192, no great changes

Edited December 23, 2012 by Mark Bayley

[Ice BIast]

The warming clearly looks happy about what it's done on that run, it's grinning at us!

Seriously though, if a warming were to happen, then how much time lag would there be in this case before we start seeing tropospheric impact?

[Mark Bayley]

The warming clearly looks happy about what it's done on that run, it's grinning at us!

Seriously though, if a warming were to happen, then how much time lag would there be in this case before we start seeing tropospheric impact?

Im not best to answer that question however talk of taking at least 4-6 weeks as minimum is not right, we could see the tropospheric benefits soon after a major warming or SSW. It just depends on where any blocking or PV lobes decide to set up shop. For that we shall have to wait a bit! I seem to remember GP mentioning a possible MJO phase 7/8 during January (by the middle of Jan), that would certainly go on our side for a strong -NAO/-AO pattern, in conjunction with a possible SSW by the 7th/8th. Edited December 23, 2012 by Mark Bayley

[Ice BIast]

Im not best to answer that question however talk of taking at least 4-6 weeks as minimum is not right, we could see the tropospheric benefits soon after a major warming or SSW. It just depends on where any blocking or PV lobes decide to set up shop. For that we shall have to wait a bit! I seem to remember GP mentioning a possible MJO phase 7/8 during January (by middle of Jan), that would certainly go on our side for a strong -NAO/-AO pattern, in conjunction with a possible SSW by the 7th/8th.

Let's hope so. The MJO isn't doing us any favours currently, sticking around phase 3 for a while yet.

[MR EXTREMES]

i think it might be better to forget the warming i really think its to late in the season.

i also feel this warming is not coming any closer and as has been noted the mjo is against us i think winter 12/13 needs to be forgotten as a so close but no cigar.

[bluearmy]

i think it might be better to forget the warming i really think its to late in the season.

i also feel this warming is not coming any closer and as has been noted the mjo is against us i think winter 12/13 needs to be forgotten as a so close but no cigar.

What a load of rubbish. If this warming does occur, its fairly early in the season. Sorry to be to the point.

The MJO in low amplitude is irrelevant anyway. (And thats a forecast from one model for the next couple weeks max which takes us to the 8th jan latest)

Edited December 23, 2012 by bluearmy

[-uksnow-]

i think it might be better to forget the warming i really think its to late in the season.

i also feel this warming is not coming any closer and as has been noted the mjo is against us i think winter 12/13 needs to be forgotten as a so close but no cigar.

I think this post is a little silly, but correct me if im wrong (most are more knowledgable than me on here) but did a warming not occur early Jan last year to give us the cold early februrary? The cold that killed hundreds in Europe? There could be very quick feedback from said warming if it were to occur, so your post seems a little premature to say 'close but no cigar'.

Similarly, the warming is coming closer and its consistancy is good, i will happily back this up with evidence (even though you've got plenty on post #1394) If someone could just link me to the archives of GFS strat runs (10hpa).

Just also like to say this thread is amazing, i read daily as it is so much more informative than the winter model discussion thread, and great post Recretos yesterday

-eded-

BA you beat me too it!

Edited December 23, 2012 by -eded-