Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[Snowy Easterlies]

Thanks for your responses to my question, I like the liquid T1000 analogy.

thanks, i hardly know anything about the strat, but i have learned a bit and i just thought i add a bit of humour to the thread

and thanks to the posters on here who keep us novices updated on things

Edited November 25, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[FrenchScotPilot1]

Would the following scenario be fair:

1. Meandering Rossby waves (from barotropic and baroclinic instabilities) enhance surface high and lows

2. A blocking high may form and deflect further planetary waves off mountain ranges upwards

3. Given the right conditions (wave 1 or 2 in light westerly flow around the tropopause), may cause a breakdown in the polar vortex

4. This breakdown in turn reinforces the blocking high

Once again some sort of positive feedback.

Thanks,

Stephane

[lorenzo]

FS Pilot all of the above ring true

1 the surface high in question of recent note is the Kamchatkan ridge in the west pacific.

2 blocking highs are predicated by anomalous SSts as per NASA reanalysis of 2010 NAO signature, this year recently sees Kara seas SSTs perhaps influence NWP output, hence materialisation of Arctiv High and CP flow. Mountain torques indeed are involved in the 'excitation' of planetary wave motion, although i think the BDC is a stronger influence here.

3 Pv is hammered this year compared to last. Ed's forecast is rock solid, Nov / Early Dec aside it is brilliant work.

4 Caveat with general here re blocking - cannot predict where blocking will occur. However the charts from most recent Ens runs suggest a nice gap for ridging from wave 1 activity is available.

Edited November 26, 2012 by lorenzo

[Duane S.]

No complaints from me again following on from the ECM update this morning, full on attack on the vortex. Wave 1 continues to intensify after wave 2 does its job.

For the second day running, temperatures at 30hpa forecase to go above average and now 10hpa looking better

Finally, the zonal wind profile is not a lot of help to any vortex trying to reform later on as well!

Edited November 26, 2012 by s4lancia

[FrenchScotPilot1]

FS Pilot all of the above ring true

1 the surface high in question of recent note is the Kamchatkan ridge in the west pacific.

2 blocking highs are predicated by anomalous SSts as per NASA reanalysis of 2010 NAO signature, this year recently sees Kara seas SSTs perhaps influence NWP output, hence materialisation of Arctiv High and CP flow. Mountain torques indeed are involved in the 'excitation' of planetary wave motion, although i think the BDC is a stronger influence here.

3 Pv is hammered this year compared to last. Ed's forecast is rock solid, Nov / Early Dec aside it is brilliant work.

4 Caveat with general here re blocking - cannot predict where blocking will occur. However the charts from most recent Ens runs suggest a nice gap for ridging from wave 1 activity is available.

Thanks lorenzo, what is BDC?

[sebastiaan1973]

Brewer-dobson circulation

[FrenchScotPilot1]

Brewer-dobson circulation

Thanks sebastiaan

[bluearmy]

Quick question - given the disconnect this month between the cold mid/upper strat and the trop pressure patterns, why should we expect there to be a connect between a warming mid/upper strat and the trop ?

[chionomaniac]

Quick question - given the disconnect this month between the cold mid/upper strat and the trop pressure patterns, why should we expect there to be a connect between a warming mid/upper strat and the trop ?

Depends on the downwelling waves and EP flux, ba.

[summer blizzard]

Looks good...

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf70f168.gif

[Relativistic]

I have noticed that one large lart of the split vortex appears to be centering over the Western Greenland/ Eastern Canada area in the forecasts. Should this pattern come out tropospherically then wouldn't this discourage height rises over Greenland?

[chionomaniac]

I have noticed that one large lart of the split vortex appears to be centering over the Western Greenland/ Eastern Canada area in the forecasts. Should this pattern come out tropospherically then wouldn't this discourage height rises over Greenland?

Probably temporarily.

[Relativistic]

Probably temporarily.

Ok thanks. Why only temporarily though?

[Recretos]

@recretos there is a link to technical model thread in my signature you may enjoy reading and adding your posts to. Our resident GLAAM expert Glacier Point updates in their regularly and had this recent spike well forecast.

Thank you very much. I will check it out. My knowledge of GLAAM is quite limited, so I really look forward to any expert opinion. And yea, my MJO post was a bit offtopic.

Speaking of my limited knowledge, I have a question. If anyone would be kind enough to answer it, I would really appreciate it. Its about wave 1 and 2. I basically understand the effects and everything regarding the FU Berlin charts, but I have a hard time explaining to myself, what wave 1 and 2 actually are. Is it any planetary/Rossby wave, or a specific planetary/Rossby wave event, regarding location?

Its been a long day, so I'm just going to add some ECMWF 12z charts, so I wont be totally offtopic again.

Still decent ensembles. I find it really amazing, how the ensemble mean has the 300+ gph anomaly on a 10-day range.

The CFSv2 weeklies (The only CFS that I actually take notice off), kinda agree on the ECM idea.

GEFS and BCC ensembles also having a similar idea. Basically what I am trying to show here, is that the ridge offensive on the tropospheric polar vortex doesn't look like its gonna end anytime soon. At least not in the First half of December, as it looks like.

AO and NAO forecasts:

I will end off with quoting Dr Joe D'Aleo, from his recent thoughts on SSW:

"I suspect this year will behave more like 2003/04 which has some tropospheric warming in November and early december but in which the warming above in the stratosphere began in December making January brutal."

Best Regards.

[Panayiotis]

Thank you very much. I will check it out. My knowledge of GLAAM is quite limited, so I really look forward to any expert opinion. And yea, my MJO post was a bit offtopic.

Speaking of my limited knowledge, I have a question. If anyone would be kind enough to answer it, I would really appreciate it. Its about wave 1 and 2. I basically understand the effects and everything regarding the FU Berlin charts, but I have a hard time explaining to myself, what wave 1 and 2 actually are. Is it any planetary/Rossby wave, or a specific planetary/Rossby wave event, regarding location?

Its been a long day, so I'm just going to add some ECMWF 12z charts, so I wont be totally offtopic again.

Still decent ensembles. I find it really amazing, how the ensemble mean has the 300+ gph anomaly on a 10-day range.

Best Regards.

Looking at your posts over the past days, it shows that you have quite some knowledge in this 'field' of the weather! Edited November 26, 2012 by panayiotis

[Recretos]

Thanks panayiotis. I will try to make a short explanation, because I really don't want to be too offtopic in this thread.

Basically I guess I do have some knowledge in this area. Tho my main area of "operation" is severe convective weather and general or "basic" meteorology. For the past 2 years, I am focusing more on global setups, a.k.a. ocean and atmosphere teleconnections and its influence on global patterns and pattern changes.

Last year I was only reading certain forums and gathering knowledge on the whole stratosphere matter, because I never heard of SSW before (as funny as that may sound. But I am only 21 years old and just 5 years in the great world of meteorology). But this year I decided to start writing posts to try out that gathered knowledge in practice. But the main problem is, that tho I understand the whole picture, I have some problems with the little details and small pieces in this whole strat deal. And the fact that I only had Physics for 2 years in middle school isn't really helpful. So when I came across this thread I just had to register after reading just first 2 pages. I've noticed there are people posting here, that understand the little pieces (and also the whole thing) much better than me. So here I am now, hoping to improve my understanding of the stratosphere/troposphere processes through debate and sharing opinions.

Best Regards

P.s.: And thank you all for accepting me here.

Edited November 26, 2012 by Recretos

[lorenzo]

Very welcome here Recretos, great posts - I concur those ridges look in rude health for December. It is great to see folk from all over Europe on this thread.

[Pixel]

Thanks panayiotis. I will try to make a short explanation, because I really don't want to be too offtopic in this thread.

Basically I guess I do have some knowledge in this area. Tho my main area of "operation" is severe convective weather and general or "basic" meteorology. For the past 2 years, I am focusing more on global setups, a.k.a. ocean and atmosphere teleconnections and its influence on global patterns and pattern changes.

Last year I was only reading certain forums and gathering knowledge on the whole stratosphere matter, because I never heard of SSW before (as funny as that may sound. But I am only 21 years old and just 5 years in the great world of meteorology). But this year I decided to start writing posts to try out that gathered knowledge in practice. But the main problem is, that tho I understand the whole picture, I have some problems with the little details and small pieces in this whole strat deal. And the fact that I only had Physics for 2 years in middle school isn't really helpful. So when I came across this thread I just had to register after reading just first 2 pages. I've noticed there are people posting here, that understand the little pieces (and also the whole thing) much better than me. So here I am now, hoping to improve my understanding of the stratosphere/troposphere processes through debate and sharing opinions.

Best Regards

P.s.: And thank you all for accepting me here.

Always good to have a fresh, honest and enthusiastic perpective - I for one will learn from your interpretation as you explain the unknown - PLease keep it up for the sake of everyone who glances upon this thread - you are braver than I (-:

[summer blizzard]

Possibly something to note is that 03 and 09 are actually the best SST matches overall ( i never actually realised how good 04 was stratospherically)..

[lorenzo]

Have we an official case for CW then? Not sure how this exactly defined but the destruction over that side certainly warrants some kind of credential being awarded.

Some charts from FU Berlin that bode very well into December. Warming continues, waves continue.

An eye watering Geop. Height Wave 1 at the 10 day time frame, with wave 2 loading up on the vortex too.

Temps @ 10 / 30 / 100

Vorticity - not an expert on this at all, view this chart as areas where the vortex has core strength.

Wave1 and Wave2

Mentioned in a post couple of nights back about the Brewer Dobson circulation and keep thinking enhancements here and QBO are helping the strat profile, reasoning around this yet to see a predictor Asian Mountain torque. Think it was in reply to French Scot Pilot, had been celebrating baby news and apologies if that was incoherent after a couple of bottles of red. ! Also apologies to Ed, reading it back looked like it could be misconstrued, the part albeit Nov / Dec refers to the Canadian warming time frame prediction, I think that someone looking in casually may pick up on not predicting the exact timing as an error, in fact this is nigh on impossible to predict and I was trying to say not to look at the timing prediction specifically. Hope that makes sense.

Still looks like considerable pressure on the Strat, the split and now very strong displacement signal via Wave 1. Makes December fascinating. Good to see charts here to rival the current NWP frenzy !

[chionomaniac]

Thank you very much. I will check it out. My knowledge of GLAAM is quite limited, so I really look forward to any expert opinion. And yea, my MJO post was a bit offtopic.

Speaking of my limited knowledge, I have a question. If anyone would be kind enough to answer it, I would really appreciate it. Its about wave 1 and 2. I basically understand the effects and everything regarding the FU Berlin charts, but I have a hard time explaining to myself, what wave 1 and 2 actually are. Is it any planetary/Rossby wave, or a specific planetary/Rossby wave event, regarding location?

Its been a long day, so I'm just going to add some ECMWF 12z charts, so I wont be totally offtopic again.

Still decent ensembles. I find it really amazing, how the ensemble mean has the 300+ gph anomaly on a 10-day range.

The CFSv2 weeklies (The only CFS that I actually take notice off), kinda agree on the ECM idea.

GEFS and BCC ensembles also having a similar idea. Basically what I am trying to show here, is that the ridge offensive on the tropospheric polar vortex doesn't look like its gonna end anytime soon. At least not in the First half of December, as it looks like.

AO and NAO forecasts:

Best Regards.

Waves 1 and 2 are just the number of larghe scale planetary waves that are affecting the stratospheric vortex at a particular time.

If you imagine that the vortex is a balloon ( a rough analogy here) and you place pressure with 1 finger on that balloon then you will create a distortion similar to 1 wave or wave number 1. If yo place two fingers at opposite sides and apply presssure then that is akin to 2 waves - wave number 2 . And 3 fingers at different points a three wave pattern will be created. We are used to waves with a far smaller wavelength - such as the number of Rossby waves travelling around the troposphere - but the number deflecting the stratospheric vortex at any one time is far smaller.

Of course the polar strat vortex is more cylindrical in shape and the waves are created by higher pressures throught the depth of the stratosphere. Going back to the balloon scenario it is easier to imagine how wave number 1 can create a displacement type of event on the vortex and wave number 2 a splitting type of event.

The precursors to the waves are normally higher pressures around mounrtain ranges that can divert a tropospheric wave into the stratosphere creating a mountain torque evnt in the process. There are only so may mountain ranges in the NH that can create this which is why we don't have more than a wave 3 event at any one time.

[FrenchScotPilot1]

Mentioned in a post couple of nights back about the Brewer Dobson circulation and keep thinking enhancements here and QBO are helping the strat profile, reasoning around this yet to see a predictor Asian Mountain torque. Think it was in reply to French Scot Pilot, had been celebrating baby news and apologies if that was incoherent after a couple of bottles of red. ! Also apologies to Ed, reading it back looked like it could be misconstrued, the part albeit Nov / Dec refers to the Canadian warming time frame prediction, I think that someone looking in casually may pick up on not predicting the exact timing as an error, in fact this is nigh on impossible to predict and I was trying to say not to look at the timing prediction specifically. Hope that makes sense.

Still looks like considerable pressure on the Strat, the split and now very strong displacement signal via Wave 1. Makes December fascinating. Good to see charts here to rival the current NWP frenzy !

No problem lorenzo. Congrats about the baby! I always appreciate your enlighting posts.

[egret]

Waves 1 and 2 are just the number of larghe scale planetary waves that are affecting the stratospheric vortex at a particular time.

If you imagine that the vortex is a balloon ( a rough analogy here) and you place pressure with 1 finger on that balloon then you will create a distortion similar to 1 wave or wave number 1. If yo place two fingers at opposite sides and apply presssure then that is akin to 2 waves - wave number 2 . And 3 fingers at different points a three wave pattern will be created. We are used to waves with a far smaller wavelength - such as the number of Rossby waves travelling around the troposphere - but the number deflecting the stratospheric vortex at any one time is far smaller.

Of course the polar strat vortex is more cylindrical in shape and the waves are created by higher pressures throught the depth of the stratosphere. Going back to the balloon scenario it is easier to imagine how wave number 1 can create a displacement type of event on the vortex and wave number 2 a splitting type of event.

The precursors to the waves are normally higher pressures around mounrtain ranges that can divert a tropospheric wave into the stratosphere creating a mountain torque evnt in the process. There are only so may mountain ranges in the NH that can create this which is why we don't have more than a wave 3 event at any one time.

Excellent description Chio, helped to bring focus to my understanding also!

Edited November 27, 2012 by egret

[AWD]

Surely this is as low as it can realistically go?

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

[Recretos]

Waves 1 and 2 are just the number of larghe scale planetary waves that are affecting the stratospheric vortex at a particular time.

If you imagine that the vortex is a balloon ( a rough analogy here) and you place pressure with 1 finger on that balloon then you will create a distortion similar to 1 wave or wave number 1. If yo place two fingers at opposite sides and apply presssure then that is akin to 2 waves - wave number 2 . And 3 fingers at different points a three wave pattern will be created. We are used to waves with a far smaller wavelength - such as the number of Rossby waves travelling around the troposphere - but the number deflecting the stratospheric vortex at any one time is far smaller.

Of course the polar strat vortex is more cylindrical in shape and the waves are created by higher pressures throught the depth of the stratosphere. Going back to the balloon scenario it is easier to imagine how wave number 1 can create a displacement type of event on the vortex and wave number 2 a splitting type of event.

The precursors to the waves are normally higher pressures around mounrtain ranges that can divert a tropospheric wave into the stratosphere creating a mountain torque evnt in the process. There are only so may mountain ranges in the NH that can create this which is why we don't have more than a wave 3 event at any one time.

Thank you very much. So it really is more of a sequence thing and not a location-specific event, which was my main dilemma. Thanks again for your time. And the balloon analogy was splendid!

And of course my usual ECMWF 12z "outlook".

Still the same idea. the Pacific and Greenland ridge attacking in, keeping the trop. P.V. split, WAA on their W side, with a High dominating the region, keeping the AO "down under" for now.

Best regards.