Teleconnections and long range forecasting

[BornFromTheVoid]

Something interesting to note I think.

The 500hPa Geopotential Height Anomaly so far this winter

The 500hPa Geopotential Height Anomaly for low sea ice years, similar to the one posted earlier in the thread, but without the mistake of adding 1996 twice!

Strong +ve anomalies from Barents across to Greenland, as well as over the Bering straight. Main difference being down the US eastern seaboard.

A pretty good fit overall though I think.

[FrenchScotPilot1]

I'm creating this topic as some sort of research thread to try to establish how we could improve long range forecasting (1-3 months in advance) using teleconnections and variability indices:

QBO, ENSO, PDO, GWO, AMO, AAM, Mountain/Frictional torque, etc...

 

Some analysis/forecasting sites to start with:

 

AAM, Mountain/frictional torque: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/aam.90day.total.shtml

GWO, MJO composites: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/gsdm.composites.shtml

GWO: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html

MJO: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

TIGGE MJO: http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/tigge_MJO.html

MJO composites: http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

Various: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/climwx.shtml

Various: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/index.php

 

And there are many many more. We could also include SSW.

 

I've laid out the foundations, please start building the walls :-)

 

Let's make it a great place to learn...

Edited July 19, 2013 by FrenchScotPilot1

[Supercell 89]

Thanks for starting up this thread FrenchScotPiloet 1 its a great idea

 

Just to add some more links in,

 

QBO data back to 1948 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

 

Current global SST Anomalies http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html

 

ENSO current data but also access to previous 3 month anomalies http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/

 

Hope this is added help for those wanting to find all the resources

Edited July 20, 2013 by Supercell 89

[FrenchScotPilot1]

Thanks Supercell89.

 

Ok, what do Iknow so far when it comes to global influences.

 

It's a bit like paper rock scissors:

Sun influences SST.

Atmosphere and Ocean influence each other (ENSO).

ENSO influences MJO.

MJO influences upper/lower tropical winds.

Upper winds influence pressure patterns (e.g. jet stream drives NAO)

Oceans drive PDO and AMO.

 

AAM is the result of frictional torque (surface friction) and mountain torque (pressure difference on W and E side of mountains).

AAM is conserved therefore changes are done through torques above.

Stronger W'lies = Atm AM increase = Earth AM decrease

Atm AM increase with E'lies in the Tropics, decrease with W'lies in mid latitudes. There is therefore a poleward trasfer of AM.

 

ENSO changes E'ly trades into W'ly trades. Atm AM increases, Earth AM decreases.

 

This is what I have so far. My next read is on GWO vs MJO.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Hello. This thread seems to have a similar theme to one from last year here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74566-the-hunt-for-white-december/?hl=+white%20+december

 

I was hoping to get more contributors to it then, but it seemed to die. Perhaps they could be merged?

Edited July 23, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[FrenchScotPilot1]

Hello. This thread seems to have a similar theme to one from last year here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74566-the-hunt-for-white-december/?hl=+white%20+december

 

I was hoping to get more contributors to it then, but it seemed to die. Perhaps they could be merged?

 

Sounds good thanks. I'll have a look.

[FrenchScotPilot1]

On behalf of one of my estimated twitter user, find below a random bit on Globally Averaged Angular Momentum (GLAAM). It's assessed as a global (averaged in latitude and longitude) anomaly of AAM.

• [*]+AM in late summer normally equates to neutral NAO with ridge in mid latitudes [*]+AM can help develop ridges at high latitudes in winter months [*]-AM can help develop ridges in high latitudes in summer months
  

For info, last March ('13), which was ended up the coldest in 50 years, had a very defined positive GLAAM.

Climate indices, monthly atmospheric and Ocean Time Series: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/list/

 

Note: This post will be edited as and when.

 

Edited July 30, 2013 by FrenchScotPilot1

[FrenchScotPilot1]

Great link here to teleconnections technical papers http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/73911-technical-teleconnective-papers/ but it would take years to read them all and summarise findings.

 

What I had in mind was (and I hope it is not too naive/utopistic) AMO, PDO, MJO, ENSO, AAM, etc have the following effects on European weather:

AMO: effects

PDO: effects

MJO: effects

ENSO: effects

AAM: effects

etc...

[FrenchScotPilot1]

On behalf of one of my estimated twitter user, find below something about Global wind Oscillation (GWO).

 

GWO is arguably the best all round measure of atmosphere because it encompasses GLAAM (see above), Rossby waves, responses to torques (which include global patterns like nao, pna, etc...) and MJO if coherent.

 

What is missing now is a composite comparison height anomaly set of charts.

 

Another bit on Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) and espacially its calculated tendency relative

It includes (Gravity Wave Drag + Coriolis + Mountain + Frictional) Torques + Relative AAM Flux Convergence

It is shown at the bottom of the page: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/aam.90day.total.shtml

[Suburban Streamer]

hi stephane

 

Good to see the thread up and running i'm sure it will start to gather more steam as we head towards the all important latter part of the year.

 

Does anyone know how Recretos got on with his GWO composites? i'll drop him a PM so he can stop by this thread when he's on here next.

 

And MODS, it would be nice to merge this thread with BFTV's thread from last year, any chance someone could do that for us?