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Child Of Nadine (karin) - Severe Weather Discussion - Day 2 To 6


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More to come today with that swathe of cloud across France likely to swirl around over the next 24 hours and then to bring it straight back in our front door!

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Karin seems to have her centre anchored close to the UK for some time yet, she just loves it here Posted Image

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Hi, can we keep this thread to discussing the weather situation / forecasts / flooding etc please - if you want to chat and banter off topic please take a look at the lounge http://forum.netweat.../1

A bit frightening - http://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2012-09-25/block-of-flats-at-risk-of-collapse-after-floods-in-newburn/

Very interesting comments and analysis from ESTOFEX this morning: http://www.estofex.org/

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Still raining here though only light/moderate a present.

Collected 54.0 mm for the 24 hrs to 10BST.

Sunday eve and overnight total was 7.3 mm.

So this baby has brought 61.3 mm so far.

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Yesterdays rainfall totals map shows the rain was modelled pretty well by the NMM & also shows why so many areas have flooding...

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That chart for here shows us having around 10-15mm of rain at best, we had 48mm.

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That chart for here shows us having around 10-15mm of rain at best, we had 48mm.

It's what the radar detected - looking at nearby stations it seems to tally - Brize Norton for instance saw 16mm yesterday. So the totals you saw must have been very localised.

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It's a nightmare on the roads here in the north east, many roads closed and traffic is unreal, many people been stuck in traffic for 2 hours now. Metro's had a 25 minute delay this morning but seems to be improving now. The weather has gone a bit quiet here now but there appears to be more on the door step swinging in from the North Sea.

It's all a bit of a dire situation when we've had worse conditions recently than this and the roads and public transport still can't cope, will we ever learn?!

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From Paul Hudson's blog yesterday afternoon:

Yorkshire at risk from renewed flooding

Heavy rainfall in the next 30 hours could lead to yet more flooding across parts of Yorkshire. Current indications suggest some Pennine catchments of North & West Yorkshire could be most at risk.

The very active weather system which I wrote about here on Friday and is currently affecting much of our region could produce 50-75mm in total in some parts of Yorkshire - with around 100mm possible in one or two exposed Pennine spots, see diagram below.

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There are several reasons why such high rainfall totals are expected.

Firstly, some of the air is of tropical origin, having been drawn from ex-hurricane Nadine as it formed late last week; secondly, the weather front bringing the rain will become slow moving across the North of England, leading to a long period of rainfall; thirdly, air is being pushed up over the Pennines by a strong Northeasterly wind at first, enhancing rainfall, hence some of the largest totals will be across the eastern upslopes of the hills.

With the water table and soil moisture levels higher than average especially in western areas following the wet spring and summer, which you can read more about here, flooding is a distinct possibility as we head through tonight and tomorrow, as the region's rivers take the strain once again.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

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A repeat of yesterday here, rain rain and more rain with the most noticeable aspect being the temp @11.30 getting only to 7.9'c maximum so far. 30mph gusts and constant drizzle means it's another staying-in day today.

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First real rain of this low pressure system today for me. Sunday's rain only brought 10mm and yesterday was almost completely dry.

As i write this it has started throwing it down, today has brought 6mm since midnight with 5mm in the last hour.

Current readings are Temp 10.1C, Wind 13-20mph Westerlies, Pressure at 985hPa Steady.

Edited by WaitingForMackerel
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From Paul Hudson's blog yesterday afternoon:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

Good link. Judging by that the Fylde peninsula was in a bit of a sweet spot >= 120mm, but lo and behold the synop reports for Blackpool airport don't appear to have rain totals for the last 5 days.

Crosby on Merseyside has had over 67mm which is one of the highest official totals (freely available) for the Lancashire area and matches well the map prediction of >=60 but this is lower than expected for much of the northwest according to the map.

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Good link. Judging by that the Fylde peninsula was in a bit of a sweet spot >= 120mm, but lo and behold the synop reports for Blackpool airport don't appear to have rain totals for the last 5 days.

They only empty the jar once a week at the airport......

spoke to me ma n pa this morning, they are on North Shore and it hasn't stopped for 36 hours now, most side roads have standing water and the Wyre is in flood. The Blackpool result last night I blame entirely on the weather.

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The child of NADINE as cost millions ,caused missery and injury and death . And it still as plenty of fight in it . itscoming at us further south again .the wind is picking up here and the blue sky gradually filling in .looks like the next 36 hrs could produce plenty more flooding with large rainfall totals over wales ,the west country s/west and parts of the south . but looks like making a runner on thursday ,some child .i blame the parents Myself .i wonder if we will see any more of its relatives this autumn /winter ,regards legritter .

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A break from the wind and rain around 11am as the centre of the low passed over this region, the barometer bottomed out at 967.11mb and now steadily rising (977mb currently). The rain and wind have picked up again but looking hopeful of a little brightness this afternoon going by visible radar images here on the North East coast. Looks like we've missed the 'worst' of the rain here with around 40mm in 24hrs.

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Rain becoming persistent and heavy again as the low tracks towards the west, the winds have fallen calm under the centre (977mb) - Not the same over Northern Ireland which is getting battered by severe northerly gales with gusts over 60mph, looking very windy down the whole western coast of Scotland as well.

Edited by Liam J
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