Child Of Nadine (Karin) - Severe Weather Discussion

[Snow and storms]

I believe also its being underated, the huge differences in temperature in sea and air colliding together with the awesome force of the jet stream make things go bang in a big way, I wouldn't be to suprised to see something not to far of the 1987 event. After all this is probably the most unpredictable storm in years in terms of intensity and exact path.

on a side note, does anyone think the rain will be ahead of schedule? the Met site has it hitting our shores at 4am roughly, but looking at the satellite imagery, the very thick cloud cover seems to be covering us quickly.

[geoffw]

is this a normal autumn storm or is this something more than normal?

[gottolovethisweather]

Come on guys and gals, whilst it may bomb, the current modelling and forecasts show no likelihood of that happening.

Can we please keep things in perspective here, I firmly believe the RAIN will be the main cause for worry.

This is however, a developing situation with Liam J and Chinio's posts in particular, providing us with a good summary.

I cannot remember whether this link has been shown on here, but it shows the current development up nicely.

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

Edited September 22, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Eskimo]

Could this still turn into a repeat of 1987 or is that not possible now.

It's a big storm that's for sure but not comparative to 1987. The 1987 storm brought wind gusts of up to 120mph to the south coast and 90mph to London whereas this one is packing in wind gusts of around 60mph which is more typical of an general Autumn storm. Things can change dramatically as is the case but 1987 was once in a 200 year event and the likelihood of seeing anything like that again is therefore very low.

[Eskimo]

Funnily enough some Irony in GLTW's post...this is from Wikipedia regarding the 1987 storm.

"During the evening of 15 October, radio and TV forecasts mentioned strong winds, but indicated that heavy rain would be the main feature, rather than wind."

Guess what happened after that...

Edited September 22, 2012 by Perfect Storm

[Zenarcher]

First model run of the afternoon has finished and shows pretty much the exact same thing as previous runs,

GME agrees with the other models as well. We have good consistency here between them and as gottolovethisweather has said I don't see any indications of it bombing or it being another 1987 storm. Yes some very wet and windy weather is on its way.

[AWD]

Can't wait for this - Being very underrated in my opinion.

Any chance this thing could bomb overnight?

I haven't under-rated it, I've been the one constantly "biggin" it up in the Mod thread. Lol.

I think some severe weather will occur somewhere over the next 72 hours, just don't know where. Both rain & winds will be a problem, although both in different areas.

The thermal gradient over the English Channel is massive. Near +20 uppers in France to near 0c uppers in England will lead to a hell of a lot of rainfall somewhere IMO.

Both the UKMO & GFS predict over 100mm of rainfall in places by Tuesday. Also winds gusting upto 60mph in places.

This could well be the biggest Autumn Storm we've had for a long time.

Just look at the beauty near Iberia/Biscay now. Looks like it means business.

[gottolovethisweather]

Funnily enough some Irony in GLTW's post...this is from Wikipedia regarding the 1987 storm.

"During the evening of 15 October, radio and TV forecasts mentioned strong winds, but indicated that heavy rain would be the main feature, rather than wind."

Guess what happened after that...

And I'll be the first to tell you, I was wrong when my house gets blown away.

[A.J]

And I'll be the first to tell you, I was wrong when my house gets blown away.

you'll have to shout loud, what with no house or phone line left!

[gottolovethisweather]

I haven't under-rated it, I've been the one constantly "biggin" it up in the Mod thread. Lol.

I think some severe weather will occur somewhere over the next 72 hours, just don't know where. Both rain & winds will be a problem, although both in different areas.

The thermal gradient over the English Channel is massive. Near +20 uppers in France to near 0c uppers in England will lead to a hell of a lot of rainfall somewhere IMO.

Both the UKMO & GFS predict over 100mm of rainfall in places by Tuesday. Also winds gusting upto 60mph in places.

This could well be the biggest Autumn Storm we've had for a long time.

Just look at the beauty near Iberia/Biscay now. Looks like it means business.

I actually agree with quite a lot of the above and whilst I'm not in the position to understand all the atmospheric dynamics involved, there remains a very slight (<10% maybe) chance that all of the model outputs have got it wrong with regard to wind strength.

I've highlighted the bits in red as your most relevant statements IMO. Again, this game is all about opinions so let's all value each other's input, besides that is what makes this fun.

Keep your eyes glued to satellite images and rainfall radars, all.

you'll have to shout loud, what with no house or phone line left!

Indeed but I had to have a get out clause with no Bill Giles to blame, oops sorry Mr. Fish

Edited September 22, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

I actually agree with quite a lot of the above and whilst I'm not in the position to understand all the atmospheric dynamics involved, there remains a very slight chance that all of the model outputs have got it wrong.

I hope not otherwise your going to have to open a "Netweather members depressed over missing Nadine's child" thread next week with complimentary whiskey for a lot of let down members! Lol.

[Mapantz]

I'm just happy it's gonna rain! I'm an all-rounder when it comes to the weather, but i do get fed up of the benign stuff we've had this past three weeks. I'm potentially in a prime spot to beat my 24 hour rain record, i don't think it'll happen but i'm looking forward to an all-day deluge. F1 grand prix, roast dinner and the sound of wind and rain outside, perfect!

[gottolovethisweather]

I hope not otherwise your going to have to open a "Netweather members depressed over missing Nadine's child" thread next week with complimentary whiskey for a lot of let down members! Lol.

Yes I missed the important word WIND STRENGTH as I actually meant all of the models getting it wrong with regard to it bombing. Bombing, for those who are unaware, means a very rapid deepening of a low pressure system. Which in this scenario is not forecast and should hopefully (for all the right reasons) not result in another October 1987.

Edited September 22, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Eskimo]

Yes I should worded my reply better, I actually meant all of the models getting it wrong with regard to it bombing, which for those that are unaware, means a very rapid deepening. Which in this scenario is not forecast and should hopefully (for all the right reasons) not result in another October 1987.

I'll hold you to that.

Edited September 22, 2012 by Perfect Storm

[knocker]

Thickening layer of Cs here now. The high res. Modis at 1300z.

The image is credited to us "NERC Satellite Receiving Station, Dundee University, Scotland" http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/

[Zenarcher]

Update using the GFS 12z which has just come out,

Tomorrow morning and afternoon heavy rain affecting Southern parts,

It starts getting windy during Monday afternoon across the channel and along Eastern coasts where wind speeds reach 30 to 45mph. Plenty of rain around in the morning and afternoon as well.

During Monday evening and into the night the wind continues to increase in the North where winds will be around 40mph to 50mph. Very heavy rain for Eastern Scotland.

After this the wind and rain ease gradually but it will remain very breezy during the rest of Tuesday and Wednesday across all of the UK.

Edited September 22, 2012 by weathermaster

[geoffw]

lets just enjoy the weather before the end of the world as we know it lol

[AWD]

NAE 12z coming into range now and looking very wet for many Southern parts of the UK, especially my part of the world:

12z GFS gets the depression down to 977mb at its deepest.

Edited September 22, 2012 by AWD

[simon29]

I do hope it bombs and the winds really pick up, as with some luck it will blow my neighbours leylandai trees down

[Dorsetbred]

Ok, I'm stocked up with supplies, bring it on. Some welcomed rain for down here, having only recorded 5.6mm for September we are in need of this. I live on a hill so flooding is not an issue(NIMBY)

Barometer is still steady, not showing any signs yet of pressure fall

Edited September 22, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[gottolovethisweather]

NAE 12z coming into range now and looking very wet for many Southern parts of the UK, especially my part of the world:

And mine too, holy sugar coated rain drops. In fact, I'm roughly covered by the 80mm plus region.

Edited September 22, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

I do hope it bombs and the winds really pick up, as

with some luck it will blow my neighbours leylandai trees down

You do have a point.

Come on guys, let us get back to discussing the potential sensibly now. I'll be popping out for a few later and I'll try to resist from posting.

[bobbydog]

from my observations in the past, low pressure or storm systems which are preceded by warnings of severe gales etc, rarely come to much in the end. they tend to be over-hyped. whereas the most severe weather seems to manifest itself with little warning. e.g. 1987...

a good indicator is to check the Daily Mail. if they have the headline "batten down the hatches!!" you can pretty much guarantee that your washing you left out on the line will be dry in the morning and the house of cards you built on the patio table will still be intact....

[johnholmes]

Could this still turn into a repeat of 1987 or is that not possible now.

no chance

is this a normal autumn storm or is this something more than normal?

fairly normal with the remnants of ex TS/hurricanes

[johnholmes]

Come on guys and gals, whilst it may bomb, the current modelling and forecasts show no likelihood of that happening.

Can we please keep things in perspective here, I firmly believe the RAIN will be the main cause for worry.

This is however, a developing situation with Liam J and Chinio's posts in particular, providing us with a good summary.

I cannot remember whether this link has been shown on here, but it shows the current development up nicely.

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

yes to support this post as I have commented in reply to a couple.

It is very well covered in the post from chino, explaining why it will deepen but not in any shape or form as the 1987 storm. Its a different situation.