Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[Barry12]

Imagine the excitement around here if the Daily Mail had a headline reading

"Experts predict mildest winter ever for Britain."

(blame lack of solar sausages)

Problem is the 'Expert' would be James Madden.

[gottolovethisweather]

If someone like ***** started a thread for the mildest winter on record this would be the result..

Now now, this thread is for everyone in here so no more name calling please, otherwise I can see thread derailing very quickly.

Edited September 21, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Barry12]

If it turned out to be the mildest on record, I'd be disappointed but it would still be funny

[cyclonic happiness]

Now , now children! It's all very well you criticising , but I bet no-one here is really willing to stick the necks out and make a forecast this early?

So , what if he was way off the mark? There aren't many forecasts that are any good this far out.

[Barry12]

Now , now children! It's all very well you criticising , but I bet no-one here is really willing to stick the necks out and make a forecast this early?

So , what if he was way off the mark? There aren't many forecasts that are any good this far out.

Did someone forecast the mildest on record before 2010?

[Aaron]

Now now, this thread is for everyone in here so no more name calling please, otherwise I can see thread derailing very quickly.

It's only a joke, sir, honest..

Edited September 21, 2012 by Aaron

[Winter Warmer]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2206553/Say-goodbye-autumn-Weather-skips-season-cold-rain-gale-force-winds-head-Britain-gritters-roads-preparing-winter.html

That's this years story above

[The watcher]

I'll make a forecast:

Mild spells interspersed with cold spells, some snow, rain, sleet, ice, sun and cloud.......with the odd patch of mist.

Edited September 21, 2012 by The watcher

[Methuselah]

Now , now children! It's all very well you criticising , but I bet no-one here is really willing to stick the necks out and make a forecast this early?

So , what if he was way off the mark? There aren't many forecasts that are any good this far out.

Why the 'm'?

[Barry12]

I'll make a forecast:

Mild spells interspersed with cold spells, some snow, rain, ice, sun and cloud.......with the odd patch of mist.

If theres sleet now you will be criticized

Edited September 21, 2012 by Barry95

[Andy_]

http://www.dailymail...ing-winter.html

That's this years story above

I love how they've used the phrase - 'weather skips a season', as if there isn't rain and wind or cold in the Autumn. The Daily Mail should only be read for comedic purposes.

Hence this lovely winter themed article..

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2206817/Frozen-time-Worlds-snowmobile-fitted-bright-blue-chains-skis-1925-goes-hammer.html

Edited September 21, 2012 by Andy163

[bobbydog]

Council chiefs started training their gritter crews earlier this month in the first sign wintry weather is not too far away

Fred demonstrated the council's new anti- madden shield. also known as, the 'bulls**t deflector'.

Edited September 21, 2012 by bobbydog

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

It is very cold tonight and there is frost forcasted for some parts of the UK

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Council chiefs started training their gritter crews earlier this month in the first sign wintry weather is not too far away

Fred demonstrated the council's new anti- madden shield. also known as, the 'bulls**t deflector'.

Get the combine snow shifter with the added flame thrower.

makes things nice and toasty.

[Roger J Smith]

Yeah, I was referring to the tendency for the forum to assume the tabloid headlines are opposite from most likely outcomes.

Here's my updated forecast after reviewing the "singularity" potential from the ice anomaly.

Winter 2012-13 Forecast Summary

Based on my usual methodology and a consideration of the unusual ice-free anomaly expected to start the season, the following is my expected temperature and precipitation trend for DEC-JAN-FEB (following a November with expected mild temperatures by 1-2 C deg, and near normal in precip).

DECEMBER looks fairly close to normal with a roughly equal mixture of mild and cold days. There may be one relatively severe cold spell of 2-4 days around the middle of the month towards the 20th. The period 7th to 13th is expected to be quite mild, and the run up to Christmas increasingly mild with rain replacing sleet or snow in most areas but there would be a better chance for snow in north-central parts of the U.K. around Christmas. A stormy interval may develop just around or after Christmas Day.

JANUARY looks relatively mild but with severe cold forming gradually off to the north and east of the U.K., some intervals of modified cold could intrude. The month may also become rather stormy at times especially in periods around the 10th and 25th. A trend to much colder weather is likely near the end of the month although mild weather could hold on in the southwest.

FEBRUARY is expected to be much colder than average by 2-4 degrees with considerable snow and frequent easterly winds. This will develop because of massive blocking to the north of the U.K. extending from Iceland to Scandinavia. There is some indication of a very severe period of wintry weather. This severe cold may last some time beyond the end of the month.

So there you have it, one forecast to consider, and I will cross-post this in the seasonal thread now. Will update into early November before launching this for better or worse, but don't expect any big changes to this outlook, the signals I have in my research model are quite strong concerning a downward trend in anomalies from NOV to FEB. Comparisons to 1946-47 are not ruled out by the numerical output.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

That's what I love about RJS theory and method, its more or less set with only subtle changes to occur but overall theme will remain in place. From initial post a few days back I am pleased to see what you say about Dec, I thought you were thinking blow torch...which isn't in my mind. Also my long held view that cold must be established or very apparent by last week of Jan for significant cold spell to take hold. Good luck with finalisation Roger.

BFTP

[AWD]

If only we could fast forward time...................................................

[Weather-history]

What about nov 19th 1996? where were you? Ive not had a snowier day since

[Gavin Hannah]

HAZAAR!!!

So if we could bank FI charts .................

[UV-RAY]

That's what I love about RJS theory and method, its more or less set with only subtle changes to occur but overall theme will remain in place. From initial post a few days back I am pleased to see what you say about Dec, I thought you were thinking blow torch...which isn't in my mind. Also my long held view that cold must be established or very apparent by last week of Jan for significant cold spell to take hold. Good luck with finalisation Roger.

BFTP

Lets hope it doesn't turn out like last years wet lettuce of a cold spell then.

I still feel the cold will arrive much earlier and a December 2010 cannot be ruled out.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

HAZAAR!!!

So if we could bank FI charts .................

Hope they dont come off, only 8th 0ct, just as well its deeper than GFS FI

[Gavin Hannah]

Or if they did come off, could the HP get stuck all winter?? That would be a result.

[bluearmy]

Lets hope it doesn't turn out like last years wet lettuce of a cold spell then.

You mean the two week period with a cet blew zero and snow on the ground? How short are our memories if we dismiss this as a 'wet lettuce'. meteorologically speaking we were a 'nats' away from the coldest spell of weather for decades.

Back to now and this thread is crazy. It's September the 20th !!

[chionomaniac]

You mean the two week period with a cet blew zero and snow on the ground? How short are our memories if we dismiss this as a 'wet lettuce'. meteorologically speaking we were a 'nats' away from the coldest spell of weather for decades.

Back to now and this thread is crazy. It's September the 20th !!

22nd actually ba. Don't short change us by two days!

[UV-RAY]

You mean the two week period with a cet blew zero and snow on the ground? How short are our memories if we dismiss this as a 'wet lettuce'. meteorologically speaking we were a 'nats' away from the coldest spell of weather for decades.

Back to now and this thread is crazy. It's September the 20th !!

I'm talking from an IMBY perspective, last years cold snap brought nothing but a few days of freezing rain and nine days of below average temps. Nothing to write home about really! Edited September 22, 2012 by Seven of Nine