Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

The same site which got last winter completely wrong.

[UV-RAY]

I would agree with all of that, BFTV...I'd even go as far as to ask: what drives the PDO? Some kind of homoeostatic response/feedback mechanism, in response to the planet's ever-changing heat distribution, would be my best guess...Which is why I, personally, do not see it as a primary driver, as of itself? Although, it's undoubtedly a valuable indicator of current conditions.

i think the primary driver of the PDO is solar, as for dismissing it as primary driver just look at how it correlates with warm and cool cycles. Edited September 21, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[BornFromTheVoid]

Actually it was 2000 years ago not 8000 and I really can't see how you can attribute this to CO2 levels, the jury is still out on that one.

Nope, 8000, during the Holocene Climatic Optimum.

I didn't mention CO2? Best not to turn this into a global warming debate anyway methinks

[gottolovethisweather]

The same site which got last winter completely wrong.

Not that Netweather got it wrong either, of course.

We all need to use some patience here and to listen to the many informed opinions above my rather unuseful comment.

Other places to guide us on our way are the Stratospheric thread - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71340-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20112012/page__st__1260__p__2369546__hl__+stratosphere#entry2369546 and the Northern Hemisphere threads - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74146-snow-and-ice-in-the-northern-hemisphere-201213/page__pid__2369587__st__340#entry2369587, which I find especially useful.

Winter is coming, but Autumn will be making the headlines, come next week.

Edited September 21, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Not that Netweather got it wrong either, of course.

We all need to use some patience here and to listen to the many informed opinions above my rather unuseful comment.

Other places to guide us on our way are the Stratospheric thread - http://forum.netweat...re#entry2369546 and the Northern Hemisphere threads - http://forum.netweat...40#entry2369587, which I find especially useful.

Winter is coming, but Autumn will be making the headlines, come next week.

Why will Autumn make head lines

[Methuselah]

i think the primary driver of the PDO is solar, as for dismissing it as primary driver just look at how it correlates with warm and cool cycles.

I'm not 'dismissing anything. All I'm suggesting is that the driver of the PDO is Earth's heat distribution/load. Which is, in turn (CO₂ notwithstanding) driven by the sun...Are you saying that one 'primary driver' is driving another?

Nope, 8000, during the Holocene Climatic Optimum.

I didn't mention CO2? Best not to turn this into a global warming debate anyway methinks

No you didn't. I think that that was me...

[gottolovethisweather]

Why will Autumn make head lines

As far as I'm concerned as a traditionalist, Autumn starts on the Equinox so we are finally almost now there, in spite of this thread or its predecessor starting way back when. More appropriately, to answer your question, I'm looking at the short-term outlook.

See http://www.netweathe...oryid=1234;sess= for example and the other threads which are discussing this in more detail.

Further ahead, I would be guessing, but I have "gut feeling" that some early Air Frosts and who knows, some further snow could also make the headlines in the not so distant future.

*note, I say guessing* I'll leave the proper analysis to the better informed.

Edited September 21, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[cheeky_monkey]

i would be very wary as to what the signals are pointing too. Last year here in North America everything was in place for a very cold winter and every agency was predicting a well below season..what in fact transpired was the exact opposite..this year there are conflicting predictions coming out from a very mild dry winter to a very cold snowy one...and obviously what happens here could effect weather patterns across the north Atlantic and western Europe.

[UV-RAY]

Nope, 8000, during the Holocene Climatic Optimum.

I didn't mention CO2? Best not to turn this into a global warming debate anyway methinks

Ha Ha, indeed BFTV. I think you'll find it is 2000 years ago, this is from a climate scientist and he says the 8000 years is often misquoted.

[UV-RAY]

I'm not 'dismissing anything. All I'm suggesting is that the driver of the PDO is Earth's heat distribution/load. Which is, in turn (CO₂ notwithstanding) driven by the sun...Are you saying that one 'primary driver' is driving another?

No you didn't. I think that that was me...

Sorry Rybris I didn't mean to come across as accusing you of being dismissive. I would say that solar is the driver and the oceans are it's storage heater.

Do you think we have gone off topic somewhat.

Edited September 21, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[Barry12]

Sorry Rybris I didn't mean to come across as accusing you of being dismissive. I would say that solar is the driver and the oceans are it's storage heater.

Do you think we have gone off topic somewhat.

Yes, this is the thread to talk about winter, not the climate!

[Methuselah]

Sorry Rybris I didn't mean to come across as accusing you of being dismissive. I would say that solar is the driver and the oceans are it's storage heater.

Do you think we have gone off topic somewhat.

Possibly. What was it?

[Met4Cast]

The same site which got last winter completely wrong.

But I, unlike many forecasters out there hold my hands up when I'm wrong and learn from it, I even talk about how I got last winters forecast spectacularly wrong at the start

I've spent the last few months researching and learning a lot more about what factors go into Long Range Forecasting, of course things are never perfect though, forecasting the winter at this range is impossible, which is why I wont be releasing a "forecast" until November 30th, but merely giving a run down of current driver situations and what models are hinting at, at this very early stage. If you read the forecast, caution is advised throughout

Edited September 21, 2012 by Daniel AKA WMD

[johnholmes]

November 31st

not doing one then?

sorry could not resist that

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

November 31st

not doing one then?

sorry could not resist that

Ha He heeeeeeeeeeeeee

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I would be of the opinion that the high pressure caused the warm anomalies in this instance at least. It makes sense to me?

The record low was not minor. Based on the current evidence, it was the lowest in 8,000 years, possibly much longer.

Getting into the cause of the record minimum and the influence/relevance of the August storm is a debate for elsewhere though, but just to say, the ice was well on it's way towards lowest on record even before the storm.

The newly open waters in the Arctic allow for a rapid heat build up in Summer and subsequent release in the Autumn and early Winter. This affects the thermal and thickness gradient between the Arctic and the tropics, one of the fundamental causes of all weather. This change simply has to affect our weather in some way. The difficulty is teasing out the strength of that influence from the other drivers already mentioned, but mainly the low solar activity and -ve PDO.

Indeed we could go off topic here, minor inasmuch as grand scale of things and satellite imagery [i believe our most accurate way of reading] is only a few decades.

Re the arctic strom that may be relevant, it would seem that similar events are suggested to occur during or entering into past grand minimas.

I think the jet dispacement south and disruption is going to occur due to current solar cycle / PDO etc but i wouldn't bet against enhancement of disruption due to ice situation

BFTP

[Methuselah]

Indeed we could go off topic here, minor inasmuch as grand scale of things and satellite imagery [i believe our most accurate way of reading] is only a few decades.

Re the arctic strom that may be relevant, it would seem that similar events are suggested to occur during or entering into past grand minimas.

I think the jet dispacement south and disruption is going to occur due to current solar cycle / PDO etc but i wouldn't bet against enhancement of disruption due to ice situation

BFTP

Is there any scientific basis for that observation, Fred? To me, it sounds about as assumptive as when folks attribute things to AGW...Is there any record of Arctic storm intensities, from the time of the Maunder Minimum?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Is there any scientific basis for that observation, Fred? To me, it sounds about as assumptive as when folks attribute things to AGW...Is there any record of Arctic storm intensities, from the time of the Maunder Minimum?

About as much as any observations way back then so I would say no.

I've been looking at SSTs, I'm thinking that ENSO neutral at most is likely, tentative signs of La Nina favourable conditions may develop eg water north of Oz beginning to warm

BFTP

Edited September 21, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[feb1991blizzard]

Classic undercutter with the Jet diving south taking all the energy under the block which would be a classic in its own right, but for mid November........

[feb1991blizzard]

And how about this for a Non exsistent PV. A record in terms of square miles for a HLB.

[johnholmes]

And how about this for a Non exsistent PV. A record in terms of square miles for a HLB.

and about as meteorologically possible as me winning the national lottery without a ticket!

[Gavin Hannah]

and about as meteorologically possible as me winning the national lottery without a ticket!

Nothing is impossible.....

[Weather-history]

Classic undercutter with the Jet diving south taking all the energy under the block which would be a classic in its own right, but for mid November........

If there is a cold pool present it could be like latish November 1993

[feb1991blizzard]

and about as meteorologically possible as me winning the national lottery without a ticket!

You have to be in it to win it John, Hopefully this winter i will win the meteorogocal lottery!

[snowy weather]

Classic undercutter with the Jet diving south taking all the energy under the block which would be a classic in its own right, but for mid November........

Im quite new to this forum and do not know the first thing about charts. I would be very grateful if someone could explain why this chart is good for cold weather and what it means. Thanks you

Also what conditions do we need to produce heavy snow and cold weather for the south east, if any one could explain I would be very grateful. Thanks.