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Somerset Squall

Hurricane Lane

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The twelfth tropical depression of the 2012 Eastern Pacific season has formed at roughly 125 degrees W, the westernmost formation so far this year. 12E is located in low shear and over warm water. These two factors should allow 12E to become a tropical storm, perhaps by later today. 12E is forecast to move northwestwards as the cyclone reaches the western periphery of the steering ridge to the north. This gain in lattitude will place 12E in higher shear and over cooler waters in 2-3 days time causing 12E to weaken again. NHC forecast 12E to peak at an intensity of 45kts before this occurs. As 12E is a long way out in open waters, it should not threaten land.

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TD12 E is now TS Lane:

11.track.current.png

201212E.png

201212E_7G.png

Tropical Storm LANE: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 117 hours lead

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http://www.myfoxhurr...m/stormtracker/

MIAMI (AP) — Forecasters say Tropical Storm Lane has formed in the eastern Pacific Ocean but that it poses no threat to land.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami says Lane is 1145 miles (1843 kilometers) southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. It is moving west-southwest at 5 mph (8 kph) and is expected to turn northwest on Sunday. Closer to the southwest Mexico coast, Kristy remains a tropical storm even as it passes over cooler waters.

Kristy is centered about 365 miles (587 kilometers) west of the southern tip of Baja California, where it could produce swells that cause life-threatening surf and rip conditions. It is moving northwest at 9 mph (14 kph) but it is expected to weaken Sunday. In the Atlantic, Hurricane Nadine has maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (129 kph) and is 980 miles (1577 kilometers) east of Bermuda. The Category 1 hurricane is moving eastward at 17 mph (27 kph).

http://www.azfamily..../169891436.html

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Lane has intensified quickly today. Intensity is up to 55kts currently. Lane has some deep convection covering the tightly wound circulation, and it is possible Lane may become a hurricane prior to reaching cooler waters in a day or so.

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Lane is now a 65kt hurricane. Lane has developed a fairly well defined eye this afternoon, and could strengthen a little further tonight. Tomorrow, Lane will be moving over colder waters on the north-northwesterly track. In addition, shear will increase, and as Lane is a small hurricane, weakening could be swift.

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NASA sees Eastern Pacific storms power up and down

When NASA's Terra satellite passed over the Eastern Pacific on Sept. 16 at 2:45 p.m. EDT the satellite captured Tropical Storm Kristy (at the time a tropical storm) and Hurricane Lane, located to Kristy's southwest. Lane appeared to have a tighter circulation. Marine layer clouds were seen west of Tropical Storm Kristy in the image. Credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team While Tropical Storm Kristy faded into a remnant low pressure area, Lane strengthened into a hurricane. NASA's Terra satellite caught a look at both storms when it passed overhead on Sept. 16 and showed a much tighter circulation within Hurricane Lane than in weakening Tropical Storm Kristy

http://phys.org/news/2012-09-nasa-eastern-pacific-storms-power.html#jCp

1-nasaseeseast.jpg

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Lane peaked at 70kts. The hurricane is now weakening, and fast. The north-northwesterly track has put Lane over sharply decreasing sea temps, and shear is also rising. Lane could become a remnant low in less than 48hrs. Current intensity is 65kts, and Lane should lose hurricane status this afternoon.

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Lane is unravelling fast. Intensity is down to 45kts. Strong shear have decoupled the low and mid level circulations. Continued high shear and cool sea temps will probably kill Lane tomorrow as the cyclone turns towards the west.

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201212E.png

1.track.current.png

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Lane has become a remnant low. Regeneration is not expected as sea temps remain at around 22C and plenty of dry and stable air resides where the remnant low is tracking.

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