Arctic Ice: How Does It Influence Our Weather?

[Gray-Wolf]

I don't know N.? The paper focussed on Kara/Barentsz so what if it takes 3 years (ball park figure!) for an area of low ice to begin giving influence over autumn as it loses summer heat? Our side of the basin has seen the ice really pull back for over 20yrs but other areas have seen less time without ice? 

 

Is it the overall 'low ice' record years that 'jolted the jet' into new amplitude/frequency ( outside the few geographic obstacles that cause the jet to react ) setting up potential troughs/ridges over regions for month on end ( 07' with our washout summer trough/USA Ridge or 2012 USA trough/Europe trough) or is it that autumn's outflux of heat from the areas most abnormally warmed that drives reaction or does a constant forcing , over years, bring about a certain pattern in the troughs/ridges in the Polar jet?

 

And what if we do go ice free over aug/sept? Does this ramp up the reaction and , if so , how long before the troughs impact the sub tropical jet and short out the whole cell?

Edited October 31, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[stewfox]

 

And what if we do go ice free over aug/sept? Does this ramp up the reaction and , if so , how long before the troughs impact the sub tropical jet and short out the whole cell?

 

A warming Artic will generate more snow in land (up to about 30 miles ?)

 

A warming Siberia we are likely to get more snow. Cold and warm being more mixed out

 

http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/opinion/news/siberia-is-warming-faster-than-anywhere-in-the-world-warns-top-russian-geophysicist/

[VillagePlank]

When , month on month, we see top ten global temps how can folk talk of 'ice ages'? We may well see cold plunges but you can bet your boots that this is over balanced by warm air advected into 'cold areas'.

 

What happens when the northern regions have little or no 'cold' to flood south? 

 

The Vostok ice-core record shows a maximum temperature for Earth, indeed, everytime we've reached it, we've plummeted quickly into an ice age

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The Vostok ice-core record shows a maximum temperature for Earth, indeed, everytime we've reached it, we've plummeted quickly into an ice age

 

Untitled.png

If the Earth's temperature followed that pattern back through hundreds of millions of years I might agree, but we know that temperature has been exceeded in past climates, so I see no reason to think it's any kind of temperature ceiling.

[Gray-Wolf]

It's a shame we don't have CO2 also plotted on that graph to see if falling solar impacts the carbon cycle at that latitude? We are all used to the season flow of CO2 as the northern landmasses wake up from winter ( and draw down CO2) or fall back into winter ( and put that CO2 back into the atmosphere) so do the ice ages act like giant seasons or does the loss of landmass ( and burying of a portion of the carbon cycle) to ice help reinforce the falling temps?

 

Should that prove true then what happens when you uncover those 'portions' of the planets carbon cycle ? 

 

Seems important as we see warming impacting both Greenland and Antarctica and we know that in past times both areas were biologically active and so played a part in the carbon cycle?

[Methuselah]

The Vostok ice-core record shows a maximum temperature for Earth, indeed, everytime we've reached it, we've plummeted quickly into an ice age

 

Untitled.png

But, it doesn't show that that 'maximum' temperature cannot be exceeded - only that, so far, it hasn't been?

[Gray-Wolf]

Indeed Mr T' .Which Is why I wondered about the CO2 plot? Could it be that CO2 levels, elevated beyond the levels represented in the plot, are the mechanism needed for us to see global temps reach beyond this apparent 'Max'?

[VillagePlank]

But, it doesn't show that that 'maximum' temperature cannot be exceeded - only that, so far, it hasn't been?

 

Yes, that's about right, But given the empirical evidence, we have to - whether we like it or not - presume that for some (unknown) reason and all other things being equal (they're not) the Earth has a maximum temperature which when approached plunges the planet rapidly into an ice age which incidentally is much more dangerous that >2degC this century. It's not hard to dream up mechanisms how this could occur, such as dumping vast amounts of fresh water into the THC, for instance.

Edited November 22, 2014 by Sparkicle

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

The Vostok ice-core record shows a maximum temperature for Earth, indeed, everytime we've reached it, we've plummeted quickly into an ice age

 

Untitled.png

 

Sparks,

Not sure that its anything to do with a maximum temperature being reached more a question of the temperature being tied to the Milankovich Cycle. The only period it didn't was from 150000 to 225000 years ago when the earth refused to come out of the ice age inspite of the vastly increased power being provided by the sun.

Now understanding why that happened might give us a real insight into the earth's response to natural forcings. I agree with other posters on here - if we saw the CO2 levels on the same graph, it might proove interesting. Not sure which way though.

MIA

[knocker]

Might be of interest. Some elementary orbital mechanics. Milankovic cycles on Earth.

 

Reference.

Raymond T. Pierrehumbert, Principles of Planetary Climate, CUP, 2010.

Mil.pdf

[BornFromTheVoid]

From December 10th to 12th, an international workshop is being held in Barcelona, entitled: International workshop on polar-lower latitude linkages and their role in weather and climate prediction.

 

Luckily, many of the talks and discussions are being broadcast online, with the possibility of even asking questions to the experts from your computer! There are more details here http://www.polarprediction.net/linkages/webinar.html

[Gray-Wolf]

Knocks posted this over on the 'new research' thread but it also belongs here methinks?;

 

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/10/1/014005/pdf/1748-9326_10_1_014005.pdf

 

Evidence of the impacts of A.A. keeps mounting so how much do you need to accept that you cannot dramatically alter one area without telecommunications impacting further ones down the line?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://weather.utah.edu/index.php?runcode=2015010712&t=gfs004&r=NH&d=DT

 

That is what the collapse of the Arctic vortex looks like when under attack from both Atlantic and Pacific TM air masses.

 

Look familiar????

[Gray-Wolf]

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/10/1/014005/article

 

Another Jen Francis paper on the impacts of AA on N Hemisphere weather patterns.

[knocker]

The Arctic is unravelling

 

Abstract

Though many seem to view climate change-related deviations in the Arctic as nothing more than as a distant early warning for the ‘rest of us’, new research indicates that loss of Arctic sea ice could be affecting the jet stream in such a way as to be impacting weather in the northern hemisphere. Uncharacteristically long blocking patterns being linked to the weakening circulation of upper atmospheric winds in the northern hemisphere are being connected not only to the bitter North American winter of 2013/2014 and to the uncommonly cool summer of 2014, but also to extreme weather events, many of them involving copious amounts of precipitation. Hence, changes in the cryosphere a world away, once regarded as largely isolated and innocuous, now appear to be affecting the lives—and livelihoods—of those living in the urban northern hemisphere.

 

http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13412-014-0221-9?utm_content=bufferfd736&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/53/2015/tc-9-53-2015.pdf

 

Open access paper looking at the incidence of the Beaufort/Greenland high and links to sea ice loss/warming in the Arctic.

 

It also links low ice to the occurrence of the high and so provides a positive feedback mechanism. 

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2015/03/13/science.1261768.abstract

 

I suppose this make common sense ( if you accept that Arctic Warming is impacting the temp/pressure grad between pole and equator and so weakening the jet?).?

 

If you liken lows spinning off the Jet as eddies in a flow of water then the faster the flow the more eddies?

 

So slower jet less storms more settled weather over summer? 

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

I can't say I think Antarctic ice extent has seen an increase due to increased moisture content in the atmosphere. If this were the case then before Arctic ice started declining, would we not have seen a spike in ice extent, until temperatures reached that critical point at which the increased moisture had no effect because SSTs were too high?

The growth in Antarctic ice extent seems to have stalled, but looking back at previous record high years the same thing seems to have happened at various points, only this time round it's more prolonged. Maybe El Nino is amplifying synoptics that inhibit ice growth?

 

 

I just want to point out a difference between Antarctic and Arctic sea ice, but without taking the ENSO thread further off topic. Hopefully here is ok.

 

The seasonal cycle in Antarctica is much larger than the Arctic, with area climbing to around 15 million km2 in their winter, and dropping to around 2 million km2 in their summer. So the ice is essentially recycled each each year.

On the other hand, the Arctic used to grow to about 14 million km2 and drop to around 5 million km2. Part of the reason was that the Arctic sea ice was was much thicker on average with much of it capable of lasting through the summer despite warmer temperatures and being surrounded by warm land. The Arctic basin is quite closed off, so ice there could end up decades old, growing thicker and more resilient to melt.

 

Now, part of the reason that the Antarctic sea ice has grown in the last few years is due to an increase in the circumpolar westerlies, which pushes the sea ice away from the continent and spreading it out. It's obviously cold enough that the ice blown out into the southern ocean is quickly replaced with a fresh thin layer during their winter, and so actual ice coverage increase.

In the Arctic, we had a spell of strong +ve AO phases from the 80s until the late 90s. Many researchers believed that this increased export of Arctic sea ice further south at the time. But in the Arctic, this means transport of the old, thick, resilient ice south and out of the Arctic, only to be replaced by thin, new ice, unable to withstand the summer melt.

 

There is much more too it all than that, such as freshening ocean surface from ice sheet melting and increased snow and rain, which can make it easier to freeze and act like a cap, prevent the more dense and warm salt water from reaching the surface.

But it's safe to say the processes involved in sea ice growth and loss can be quite complex, and the Arctic and Antarctic can work in surprisingly different ways.

 

[Relativistic]

I just want to point out a difference between Antarctic and Arctic sea ice, but without taking the ENSO thread further off topic. Hopefully here is ok.

The seasonal cycle in Antarctica is much larger than the Arctic, with area climbing to around 15 million km2 in their winter, and dropping to around 2 million km2 in their summer. So the ice is essentially recycled each each year.

On the other hand, the Arctic used to grow to about 14 million km2 and drop to around 5 million km2. Part of the reason was that the Arctic sea ice was was much thicker on average with much of it capable of lasting through the summer despite warmer temperatures and being surrounded by warm land. The Arctic basin is quite closed off, so ice there could end up decades old, growing thicker and more resilient to melt.

Now, part of the reason that the Antarctic sea ice has grown in the last few years is due to an increase in the circumpolar westerlies, which pushes the sea ice away from the continent and spreading it out. It's obviously cold enough that the ice blown out into the southern ocean is quickly replaced with a fresh thin layer during their winter, and so actual ice coverage increase.

In the Arctic, we had a spell of strong +ve AO phases from the 80s until the late 90s. Many researchers believed that this increased export of Arctic sea ice further south at the time. But in the Arctic, this means transport of the old, thick, resilient ice south and out of the Arctic, only to be replaced by thin, new ice, unable to withstand the summer melt.

There is much more too it all than that, such as freshening ocean surface from ice sheet melting and increased snow and rain, which can make it easier to freeze and act like a cap, prevent the more dense and warm salt water from reaching the surface.

But it's safe to say the processes involved in sea ice growth and loss can be quite complex, and the Arctic and Antarctic can work in surprisingly different ways.

Thanks for the detailed response. When we say circumpolar westerlies do we mean the SH polar vortex? Just wondering why the flow has strengthened. Edited August 9, 2015 by 22nov10blast

[BornFromTheVoid]

Thanks for the detailed response. When we say circumpolar westerlies do we mean the SH polar vortex? Just wondering why the flow has strengthened.

 

It's thought that the ozone hole caused a cooling of the stratosphere which enhanced the SH polar vortex, promoting a positive Antarctic Oscillation. This tends to push ice away from the continent.

 

[knocker]

Thanks for the detailed response. When we say circumpolar westerlies do we mean the SH polar vortex? Just wondering why the flow has strengthened.

 

This link may help clarify a few things.(with links to papers which also might help)

 

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/12/clarity-on-antarctic-sea-ice/

 

EDIT

I see BFTV posted at the same time.

Edited August 9, 2015 by knocker

[Relativistic]

It's thought that the ozone hole caused a cooling of the stratosphere which enhanced the SH polar vortex, promoting a positive Antarctic Oscillation. This tends to push ice away from the continent.

Thanks, that was my immediate suspicion.

Thanks also Knocker.

Edited August 9, 2015 by 22nov10blast

[stewfox]

 

I just want to point out a difference between Antarctic and Arctic sea ice, but without taking the ENSO thread further off topic. Hopefully here is ok.

 

The seasonal cycle in Antarctica is much larger than the Arctic, with area climbing to around 15 million km2 in their winter, and dropping to around 2 million km2 in their summer. So the ice is essentially recycled each each year.

On the other hand, the Arctic used to grow to about 14 million km2 and drop to around 5 million km2. 

 

More recent years Antarctic ice has reached 20 million kms2 and fallen back to 3.5million km2 

 

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?S

 

You can down load the data and see last years min at 3593697 and a recent max at 20119694

 

Wether what is happening 'down south' has a knock on effect up north I guess is unknown.It will be interesting to sea how the jet stream reacts to these changing ice extents in both hemisphere over the next decade that's for sure.

 

 

Thanks for the detailed response. When we say circumpolar westerlies do we mean the SH polar vortex? Just wondering why the flow has strengthened.

 

 

The 'wind idea' is a theory nothing more and for clarity that should be pointed out.NSIDC suggest it could be because its colder that we see increase ice extent down there.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64332-antarctic-ice-discussion/page-74

 

Anyway back on the topic It will be interesting if we see extensive cold plunges of arctic air over North America again this winter.One thing in recent years which has been common is the above average temps in the high arctic during the winter as you can see here. 

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

Will we see the jet behave strangely this year ? With some abnormally low temps over the north Atlantic as the temperature gradients further degrade ?

Edited August 9, 2015 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

More recent years Antarctic ice has reached 20 million kms2 and fallen back to 3.5million km2 

 

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?S

 

You can down load the data and see last years min at 3593697 and a recent max at 20119694

 

 

 

Read my post again Stew and note that I specifically said "area", not "extent".

 

"The seasonal cycle in Antarctica is much larger than the Arctic, with area climbing to around 15 million km2 in their winter"

 

Your comments on wind patterns aren't worth replying to in detail. Dismissing as just "a theory, nothing more" and then using an unrelated comment from the NSIDC as justification, appears to be a rather transparent attempt to mislead the lurkers.

[knocker]

Anyway back on the topic It will be interesting if we see extensive cold plunges of arctic air over North America again this winter.One thing in recent years which has been common is the above average temps in the high arctic during the winter as you can see here. 

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

Will we see the jet behave strangely this year ? With some abnormally low temps over the north Atlantic as the temperature gradients further degrade ?

 

Yes it will particularly when you consider the Nov.-March composite anomaly for El Nino.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/compare/

Edited August 10, 2015 by knocker