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Ed Stone

Arctic Ice: How Does It Influence Our Weather?

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So that's the question: do we think the recent Arctic Ice-Melt will affect our weather, and, if so, how?

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IF ,the recent arctic sea ice melt is the result of mans [human ] influence over the last 250/300 yrs ,i would say yes . it would affect our weather .because in my way of thinking to create such a melt would be a huge if not galaxtic event ,so if it can do that it can certainly affect our weather . if its a Natural event brought about by a large natural cycle involving processes that we do not yet understand it cant affect the weather but is a part of that WEATHER and what comes with it . i am convinced that even if you start an autumn with little ice you can still get a bitter winter , i wont get to technical as there are more knowledgeable members ,but lets hope from now THE HUMAN RACE takes all these signs seriousely ,just in case man emerged to change the face of the planet without realising it FATE ,to then move on to other rocky planets . off outside now for a puff ,feels cold now and its only sep , was fresh this morning at 4 am , one of the wolf sights already saying wolf packs are on the move in far n canada ,councills switched me lamp post off ,will have to give our outside lights a clean so i can see the snow ,cheers legritter Posted Image

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I tend to believe that it was an unfortunate 'happenstance' that we had the solar min at a time when ice loss was starting to dig in with it's impacts on the weather. I would tend to hope that last years winter would prove more of a 'ball park' type winter under the new forcings than the two before it. It would be nice if around solar min we could gaurentee a snowy winter but i'm not convinced? In the same way a house plant ,on it's last legs, will throw forth blooms as a swan song I wonder whether we have no seen the back of 'extended snowy cold' outbreaks?

With ice levels so low for so long this year I'm sure many folk will be studying the Autumn/early winter for signs of any weather impacts that would fit the 'Arctic Amplification' remit.

Let's see if we get an extended H.P. period in the run up to December with some record temps and low precip totals?

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The only prediction I feel like making is this: the Polar Jet will be more likely to buckle; but I have no expectations as to where any buckling will occur, or when...Which means, I think, that we'll need to cast our eyes further afield than just simply Northwest Europe?

Another question: what'll happen to global temps once the ice has gone - or reaches a quasi-stable extent?

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So the polar jet weakens and we get less and less low pressure systems slewing into the UK during the winter and this allows high pressure to dominate?

So, colder, drier winters?

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Perhaps the ice melt will have a lag effect so I'm not sure we would see an immediate impact on the weather with more of a gradual shift in weather patterns likely, but to what type is the question and how extreme could this be for our future climate? Could this have been a contributing factor towards the UK's wettest summer for 100 years.....

Obivously now that we're heading into autumn/winter the daylight is rapidly fading over the Arctic, ice will start to reform. This one extreme to another cycle may also have implications a few months down the line?

So many questions......

Edited by Liam J

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I think that the rockies are kind of 'key' in setting up the rossby waves but if we see the P.V. favour Greenland again this year then we have another 'peak' in the wave there?

With everything shunted south for the winter that leaves us in a kind of flat spot with Lows passing further north (stuck to the East of Svalbard?) and us in a more settled SW'ly flow? once the current 'transitional phase' passes I hope we'll find ourselves with higher pressure dominating but with nightime low cloud meaning higher mins and sunny afternoons well into November?.

It's also a Nino' year so we might find a little extra warmth from that (plus solar Max). I just do not want/need a continuation of the wet!!

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As you put it - ''everything shunted south'' could also steer more severe storm depressions over the UK that would otherwise track over the far North Atlantic closer to Iceland?

Edited by Liam J

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As you put it - ''everything shunted south'' could also steer more severe storm depressions over the UK that would otherwise track over the far North Atlantic closer to Iceland?

I'd rather think the Greenland/Kara 'Vortex' would steer them north into Scandinavia but stalling over East Svalbard before starting to fill as they progress east?

It is more the position of the Jet limb in relation to us and even though shunted South we could still find ourself more south of it than through most of summer?

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Rather than questioning whether or not the sea ice loss affect our weather (I think it inevitably will), the more important question to me is how do we discern the influence of the sea ice loss from the various other drivers and teleconnections? And how might this influence change in the next few years as the ice diminishes even further?

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The current Solar Max is rather pathetic and while a lot of peeps on the net are pointing to this as a precursor to a new "mini ice age", I don't think mild wet winters are going to be the "norm". Last year was a let down for us snow and cold fans but my hunch is that cold and snow will become more of a feature for winter. Not every winter, but certainly more frequent than they were during the 90's for example.

If the Ice loss continues on it's current trend (assuming that the ice loss encourages colder winters for us) then when we enter the next Solar min phase, it may become even more noticeable in its effects.

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Rather than questioning whether or not the sea ice loss affect our weather (I think it inevitably will), the more important question to me is how do we discern the influence of the sea ice loss from the various other drivers and teleconnections? And how might this influence change in the next few years as the ice diminishes even further?

Good God! The day has come when we agree upon something!

Less ice is just a small part of a really big puzzle. History seems to indicate that ice levels haven't played a major role of in the kind of weather we experience here, currently, we have no way of knowing if the same will hold true for the future. A quieter Sun has played a role in NH weather, with all the predictions for a prolonged period of low Solar activity, it's likely those same weather patterns will influence what is experienced here. Will the quiet Sun and less ice cancel each other out or reinforce each other? Who can tell? At the moment, no one can.

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Good God! The day has come when we agree upon something!

Less ice is just a small part of a really big puzzle. History seems to indicate that ice levels haven't played a major role of in the kind of weather we experience here, currently, we have no way of knowing if the same will hold true for the future. A quieter Sun has played a role in NH weather, with all the predictions for a prolonged period of low Solar activity, it's likely those same weather patterns will influence what is experienced here. Will the quiet Sun and less ice cancel each other out or reinforce each other? Who can tell? At the moment, no one can.

Haha, agreed (mostly)!

I'm not sure of much research on how past ice levels have affected our weather, that's not to say it doesn't exist. The change nowadays is so far beyond the known fluctuations of the past 2,000 years, that past variations just aren't as useful for comparisons anyway.

Long term forecasting is already fraught with difficulties and the sea ice loss may have just added to an already difficult job for the likes of GP, let alone anyone trying anything even longer term.

I think we need to get as much of an improved handle on the sun's impacts as we do the sea ice's. We also have the PDO turning -ve in 2007 which may be adding to the confusion. I'm sure more research will be arriving soon, but separating out the different influences on our already turbulent mid-latitude weather is gonna be a tough job!

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Ok, for starters - "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall" Liu et al. -

http://www.pnas.org/...910109.full.pdf

supporting information http://www.pnas.org/...0109_SI.pdf.pdf

While the Arctic region has been warming strongly in recent decades, anomalously large snowfall in recent winters has affected large parts of North America, Europe, and east Asia. Here we demonstrate that the decrease in autumn Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation that have some resemblance to the negative phase of the winter Arctic oscillation. However, the atmospheric circulation change linked to the reduction of sea ice shows much broader meridional meanders in midlatitudes and clearly different interannual variability than the classical Arctic oscillation. This circulation change results in more frequent episodes of blocking patterns that lead to increased cold surges over large parts of northern continents. Moreover, the increase in atmospheric water vapor content in the Arctic region during late autumn and winter driven locally by the reduction of sea ice provides enhanced moisture sources, supporting increased heavy snowfall in Europe during early winter and the northeastern and midwestern United States during winter. We conclude that the recent decline of Arctic sea ice has played a critical role in recent cold and snowy winters.

edit: added correct link for supporting information

Edited by Interitus
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Well that kind of reinforces what a lot of peeps on here suspected. Including me. Add to that the influence of a quiet sun and down go the CETs.

As I said above. Cold snowy winters will be far more frequent than they were only a couple of decades ago.

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I sincerely hope it does. Any diversion from our normal diet of 'mainly dry with sunny spells' has gotta be a change for the better.

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As autumn unfolds and the vast amounts of 'new energy' flood into the atmosphere above the Arctic it's time to start looking for the tell tale signs that things are not happening the way the GFS originally saw it?

To me we'd be looking for a significant 'backtrack' in a trend that had been showing for days with a new forecast in line with the impacts of a slowed, more amplified jet?

The promised 'Nino doesn't seem to want to get going so we may see a further weakening of the temp grad, between pole and equator emphasizing further the changes that we are predicted to see.

Where will our errant Jet put us this year?

Are we destined for mild Grey or Blue ,crisp cold?

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A Warmer arctic with less ice could prove interesting as it could mean more scope for evaporation fueling stronger early winter weather fronts for parts of canada, greenland and siberia, just think if those areas cooled sharply and ended up having warmer areas of open water, could prove interesting!

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Seeing as neither Candidate in the U.S. presidential debate mentioned climate change and the costs it will be interesting to see how Sandy messes with NY and Washington early next week.

Wunderground have already been pointing out how rare such an event is and how the jet's positioning is key in placing the storm where it is set to go.

If low ice is influencing jet positioning then how much has this influenced the placement of this potentially multi billion Dollar damage 'Cane/ex 'cane?

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Seeing as neither Candidate in the U.S. presidential debate mentioned climate change...

Why should they? Even they have twigged that it's a lost cause and nobody really swallows this crapola anymore. More sneakin' out the backdoor.

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If low ice is influencing jet positioning then how much has this influenced the placement of this potentially multi billion Dollar damage 'Cane/ex 'cane?

Would you like a list of October hurricanes/ex-hurricanes, including those which have affected the NE States.

It is rather long.

Some seem to be unable or unwilling to research anything further back than last week.

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Would you like a list of October hurricanes/ex-hurricanes, including those which have affected the NE States.

It is rather long.

Some seem to be unable or unwilling to research anything further back than last week.

I'd like the list, especially if you could narrow it down to sub 950hPa storms for New York.

Cheers in advance for your research.

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Would you like a list of October hurricanes/ex-hurricanes, including those which have affected the NE States.

It is rather long.

Some seem to be unable or unwilling to research anything further back than last week.

No but I would those that have affected the NE in late October, Ta.

Oops sorry BFTV. Must have posted at the same time.

Edited by knocker

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They're listed on Watts here

http://wattsupwithth...ocy/#more-73141

We're talking about storms that hit the north east US though. Any info on how the storms were on landing?

Also, I really don't think you can criticise anyone for not doing research when you're semi-related data is simply a link to the nearest "sceptic" source.

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