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Paranoid

Major Hurricane Michael

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Another depression has just formed out in the central Atlantic. Not expected to last very long, but then again, they said the same about Kirk which went on to become a Category 2. Expected to become TS Michael in a day or so (the 2nd earliest 13th storm on record by some margin if that happens).

000

WTNT33 KNHC 032059

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012

500 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2012

...SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...25.6N 42.2W

ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION

THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.2 WEST.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H.

A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND A

TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY

OR TWO AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

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13L has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Michael, with intensity now at 35kts. Michael is a very small tropical cyclone which is vunerable to shear. At the moment, Michael is in an area of low shear, but the outflow is practically non-exsistant in water vapour imagery. This is not a favourable environment for much strengthening. Indeed if shear rises, Michael could dissipate. However, that is not currently expected, though shear is notoriously difficult to predict. Michael is forecast to move northwards in open water and change little in strength over the next few days as the environment remains marginal.

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Tiny Michael has strengthened to 45kts. The storm retains deep convection over the LLC and well defined banding features. The upper level environment is not ideal for strengthening for reasons I have described above but Michael seems to be intensifying anyway as the shear is fairly low. NHC now forecast Michael to strengthen to near hurricane intensity by day 5. This does depend on shear staying low however, as Michael being as small as he is makes him vunerable to even the smallest increase in shear.

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Feisty little devil:

trackmap_storm4.jpg

5.track.current.png

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ir_satellite_storm4_1.jpg

201213N_7F.png

Tropical Storm MICHAEL: Probability of tropical storm winds to 117 hours lead

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Indeed Coast, he looks like he is pulling a "Kirk" on us! The initial forecast, like Kirk, forecasted little or any intensification. As it stands, Michael is close to being a hurricane. Intensity is now up to 55kts. An eye feature has been apparent from time to time on satellite imagery today. Some moderate shear was affecting Michael, but this has now eased. With this in mind, it shouldn't be long before Michael attains hurricane status, and don't be surprised to see him reach cat 2 status in the coming days before shear begins to rise in 4-5 days time.

Michael is currently moving northeastwards in the wake of a passing trough. Michael is expected to swing to the northwest soon as a ridge builds notheast of the cyclone. Michael is not likely to affect land.

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Michael's intensity has rocketed to 90kts, making him cat 2 hurricane. On latest satellite imagery, Michael's eye has become very well defined, and it looks like this tiny hurricane will become the season's first major. Who would have thought it?!

post-1820-0-78541500-1346911578_thumb.jp

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It's still intensifying too by the looks of it. Somewhat unexpected! Cat 4 it will become at least, looking at it now.

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Now a cat 3

BULLETIN

HURRICANE MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012

500 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012

...MICHAEL BECOMES THE FIRST CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OF THE YEAR...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.6N 41.7W

ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM WSW OF THE AZORES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST. MICHAEL IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A TURN TO

THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MICHAEL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS

FORECAST TODAY...WITH SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

MICHAEL IS A SMALL BUT POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE

WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

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Michael has become the seasons first major hurricane. Odd how the higher lattitude systems have fared much better than the tropical cyclones in the deep tropics this year. Sustained winds are now 100kts, and Michael could strengthen a little more yet.

Like with Kirk, this hurricane has far exceeded expectations. The first NHC forecast indicated peak of just 35kts! Small storms can be underestimated in just how quickly the intensity can change.

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Michael has become the seasons first major hurricane. Odd how the higher lattitude systems have fared much better than the tropical cyclones in the deep tropics this year. Sustained winds are now 100kts, and Michael could strengthen a little more yet.

:good:

201213N_0F.png

Intense Hurricane MICHAEL: Current probability of tropical storm winds

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Intense Hurricane MICHAEL: Modelled wind field at 69 hours lead

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Current Track & SST:

1.track.current.png

trackmap_storm4.jpg

models_storm4.jpg

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NASA Saw Michael Become an Atlantic Hurricane, Wind Speed More than Doubled

The Atlantic Ocean hurricane season spawned two hurricanes this week and NASA satellites have been monitoring them and providing valuable data to forecasters. NASA's TRMM satellite saw very heavy rainfall and powerful towering thunderstorms in Michael when the storm became a hurricane. Michael's wind speeds more than doubled in 24 hours and it is now a major hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Tropical Storm Michael became a hurricane on Sept. 5 and NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite passed by and collected data on rainfall and cloud heights. The TRMM satellite had an outstanding daytime view of intensifying tropical storm Michael on Sept. 5, 2012 at 1459 UTC (10:59 a.m. EDT). Michael was located about 1,125 miles (1,815 km) west-southwest of the Azores at that time moving slowly toward the northeast over open waters of the Atlantic. Rainfall was very intense in the forming eye and the TRMM satellite measured some areas of very heavy rain falling at a rate greater than 3 inches (75 mm) per hour.

NASA's TRMM satellite captured data on Michael on Sept. 5, 2012 at 10:59 a.m. EDT. TRMM saw Michael forming an eye, measured some areas of very heavy rain falling at a rate greater than 3 inches (75 mm) per hour and saw "hot towers" reaching heights of about 9.3 miles (15km). Credit: NASA/SSAI, Hal Pierce

684545main_20120906-MICHAEL-TRMM.jpg

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2012/h2012_Michael.html

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Out in the Atlantic, Hurricane Michael weakened from a Category 3 storm to a Category 2, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 kph) by late Thursday. Earlier in the day, it had become the first Category 3 of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Michael was moving northward at 5 mph (7 kph) over the open ocean and was not a threat to land. It was about 930 miles (1,495 kilometres) west-southwest of the Azores.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Hurricane+Michael+becomes+major+Category+storm+first+Atlantic/7198696/story.html#ixzz25lJepJAh

seawifs_michael.jpg

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Am I right in thinking that these 2 hurricanes are going to merge next week. If there still named then what happens

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Am I right in thinking that these 2 hurricanes are going to merge next week. If there still named then what happens

They may come relatively close, but will be extra-tropical by then and I guess they will still have their individual 'ex' identities?

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If one absorbes the other before extratropical transition the resulting storm will retain the name of the storm that dominates. IF this does occur then it will likely be Leslie that dominates as Leslie is larger than Michael.

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Hurricane Michael is drifting northwestward. At 11:00 a.m. AST the eye of Michael was located near latitude 31.2 north, longitude 41.1 west.

11533374-large.jpg

Michael is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph, 6 km/h, and this general motion is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph, 165 km/h, with higher gusts. Michael is a category two hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane wind scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Michael remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles, 35 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles, 110 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb, 28.64 inches.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2012/09/hurricane_michael_drifting_tow.html

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Michael's intensity fell to 85kts but the hurricane has re-strengthened to 90kts currently, and looks quite impressive again. The eye was fleeting on satellite imagery over the last day but is now very well defined again though the convection on the north side is not very deep. Michael continues to creep towards the north-northwest but will accelerate northwards and weaken eventually as shear increases. Michael is expected to remain seperate from Leslie, but this hardly matters as Michael extratropical remnants are froecast to be absorbed by a front anyway.

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The outflow from Tropical Storm Leslie is afflicting shear on Michael. The hurricane has picked up speed and is expected to swing north soon from it's current mainly westerly track. The eye has lost definition due to the shear, and sustained winds have fallen to 65kts. With the sharp nothward turn culminating in Michael moving over cooler waters, extratropical transition will begin soon.

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nasacatchest.jpg

Michel and Leslie courtesy of NASA

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gfs_gusts_eur69.png

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By September 7th, Michael was a Category Two hurricane and its hurricane-force winds extended outward 25 miles from its center. Hurricane Michael had a weak steering flow, which meant that it was moving quite slowly. The hurricane appears to be weakening, tempering concerns that Michael and Leslie would merge into one large hurricane on Canada’s East Coast.nNASA noted that Michael has a particularly clear eye, and satellites were able to see the ocean through the storm.

http://decodedscienc...september/17910

2.track.current.png

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Michael has weakened rapidly today as shear and decreasing sea temps take their toll. Convection has completely dissipated over the now entirely exposed LLC. Intensity is now 40kts. Michael is on the verge of becoming a remnant low. He will shortly become extratropical and then be absobed by a front in a day or two. Unlike Leslie, he should not come anywhere near us.

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201213N.png

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